Interesting Trend, But I Wouldn't Put Money on It

Pew Research forecasts that Christians will be an American minority by 2070:

The projections, released in a report Tuesday, used surveys and other data to figure out what religion in America would look like in the next 50 years. Pew created four different scenarios for its projections, including if Americans continued to leave Christianity at current rates or if that trend stopped. It found that the number of those with no religious affiliation would grow in all four scenarios.

Three of the four scenarios showed Christians as comprising less than 50% of the population. Only one--Christians will stop leaving the faith (Pew: "unrealistic")--had Christians above 50% in 2070. Even here the percentage dropped from the current 64% to 54% because Christian deaths outnumbered Christian births.

The projections, to be sure, aren't encouraging for Christian denominations, but the actual results never turn out as smoothly trending as the models predict, whether we're talking about climate change, the stock market, or human health. The Pew analysts themselves admit:

New patterns of religious change could emerge at any time. Armed conflicts, social movements, rising authoritarianism, natural disasters or worsening economic conditions are just a few of the circumstances that sometimes trigger sudden social – and religious – upheavals.

In American history there have been at least three "Great Awakenings" from the 18th through the 20th century, when a sizeable part of the population returns to the faith of their fathers because they became disillusioned with the ability of society to prevent natural or human-caused calamities.

I wouldn't count on a 21st century Great Awakening to reignite faith, but it would be foolish to bet against it.