Cause for Celebration

One month ago your humble non-meteorologist stated that it felt like the drought was over, though no authorities made such a declaration. The Sierra snowpack provides another piece of evidence: [bold added]

The snowpack was 205% of its historical average for this time of year on Wednesday....The last time there was as more snow, 28 years ago, on Feb. 1, 1995, it was 207% of normal.

The huge bounty is the fourth largest statewide since 1950, when consistent statewide records began, according to a Bay Area News Group analysis of historical data. Only 1952 (267% of average) and 1969 (230%), and 1995 (208%) had larger amounts on Feb. 1.

In a few places, like Highland Meadow in Alpine County, the snowpack is the largest in recorded history.

Around Lake Tahoe, stop signs and fire hydrants have been buried in snow. Ski resorts that struggled during three years of drought, wildfire and COVID are seeing a banner year. The snow base Tuesday at Palisades was 11 feet deep. At Kirkwood it was 12 feet. And at Mammoth Mountain, south of Yosemite National Park, it was nearly 20 feet deep.

The good news is that, even if the winter rains stop, the Northern California water supply is in good shape for the current year:

“The storms could shut off,” said Jay Lund, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis. “That’s the worst case. But even in the worst case, we’re still going to have a good snowpack. Most of it is in the bank, and will appear as streamflow.”

More heavy rains could cause flooding, however.

But if California receives big, warm, soaking storms that park over the Sierra, much of the snowpack could melt suddenly, causing mayhem.

The ideal water scenario would be the following:

If the rest of the spring plays out well, moderate storms will come in, with dry spells in between, allowing reservoirs to gradually continue filling just as summer is starting and the risk of floods is ending.

It's not enough for Californians that the December and January precipitation has chased away extreme drought. We want the storms to be "moderate" and short-lived so that the reservoirs fill while no floods occur.

There's no harm in hoping for the best, but hope should not turn into disappointment if we don't get a perfect rainy season. The water we've received so far is enough cause for celebration.