Marin County Leads the Way

(Tripadvisor photo)

Marin County became (in)famous as the land of hot tubs and peacock feathers in the 1978 NBC documentary, I Want It All Now. In the eyes of many in the national TV audience that documentary confirmed Marin County as the home of wealthy, non-traditional sybarites.

That stereotype only applied to a small number of residents, and Marin County in any event continued to be one of the Bay Area's most desirable places to live during the next four decades. That is, until last year.

from July 2021 to 2022, Marin lost more of its population than any other county in the Bay Area over the same time period, according to estimates recently released by the California Department of Finance. The county’s population dwindled by about 6,600 people — a loss of 15 residents for every 1,000 people that lived there in 2021...

(Chronicle graph)

One reason why Marin County lost population, experts said, is that its residents haven’t had a lot of kids lately — nor are they likely to.

The county’s median age of 46.9 years is the highest of any Bay Area county, and more than nine years higher than the state overall...

All of these factors — older population, low number of jobs relative to nearby counties and high rate of move-outs — are connected to Marin’s lack of housing, [Public Policy Institute's Hans] Johnson said.

Marin built just 5,862 homes from 2010 to 2021, or 32 units per 1,000 residents as of its 2010 population. That number is by far the smallest of any Bay Area county.

When I Want It All Now was shown in 1978, California was much more diverse, culturally and politically. It was the home state of conservative governor Ronald Reagan, who would be elected President two years later, and Richard Nixon, who served as President from 1968 to 1974. Marin County was at the left end of the country's political spectrum, and Orange County was on the right. California could accommodate everyone.

In retrospect Marin values won. The county was at the vanguard of the Progressive takeover of California, and today not a single Republican holds a California State office; the last elected Republican U.S. Senator was Pete Wilson (1988).

In 2023 Marin may be leading California again, this time on a different path.

while Marin may be an extreme instance of the Bay Area-wide trend in population loss, it’s still an example, rather than an outlier. California, after all, lost nearly 500,000 people in just two years, from mid-2020 to mid-2022

Demographic trends, especially regarding birth and death rates, are difficult to reverse. Marin, the Bay Area, and California haven't hit bottom yet.