The Science is Settled if you Halt All Research

This diagram depicts the key aerosol, cloud, dynamics, and radiation processes in the marine boundary
layer (left) and the MCB approach using ship-based generators to produce fine sea-salt aerosol droplets
(right). The droplets are lofted into clouds by updrafts, where they increase droplet concentrations, extending
the reflectivity coverage and lifetime of the clouds. Credit: After Sorooshian et al. 2019. (NOAA)

If global warming is an "existential threat" to mankind, why aren't all solutions being investigated? Your humble blogger can't help but ask this question when the City of Alameda killed a small cloud-brightening research project. [bold added]

The project, led by the University of Washington, involved scientists using specialized machines to spray sea salt particles into the air above the USS Hornet. The research was part of a larger push toward someday using salt particles to brighten low-lying clouds, thereby reflecting enough sunlight away from the Earth to decrease the warming effects of climate change.

Last month, Alameda ordered researchers to stop the project on the basis that it violated the city’s lease with the USS Hornet. The city then hired biological and hazardous material consultants to evaluate the experiment. The consultants concluded that it presented no measurable risk to the health of the surrounding community or environment.

The City of Alameda was pressured by environmental groups who not only insist on the righteousness of their goals but also that the only method to halt global warming is through the elimination of fossil fuels. Per the Center for International Environmental Law:

“We cannot geoengineer our way out of the climate crisis, what we need is to focus on real and proven solutions, starting with a phase out of all fossil fuels,” Mary Church, the center’s campaign manager, said in the statement. The center added, “Deployed at scale, Marine Cloud Brightening would not reverse the climate crisis but create a different climate change potentially exacerbating droughts, hurricanes, and flooding far from the deployment site.”

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Marine Cloud Brightening holds promise as a way to "buy us enough time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions" but more studies are needed. There is currently no evidence that MCB will succeed or that it will be harmful either.

Anti-fossil-fuel advocates like to say that their prescriptions are "based on science", but they stop research that might further our understanding of the science. What are they afraid of?

Inordinately High Gunfire

The headline in this morning's Mercury News triggered my sardonic sensibility: "Gee, if only Alameda road shootings returned to normal."

But it really is puzzling why East Bay gunfire is much higher than the rest of the State:

Alameda County has one-sixth the population of Los Angeles County, but has a freeway and highway shootings-per-capita rate five times higher since 2021, according to the data, which was provided by the California Highway Patrol to this newspaper in March. Last year, Alameda County surpassed L.A. for a first-place finish no one wants: 79 reported highway shootings, compared to 71 in L.A., a place known for being the capital of the nation’s car culture...

Across the state, reports of shootings involving firearms — as opposed to BB guns, pellet guns and the like — last year dropped 27% from 2021, easing from 477 to 347, according to the analysis. Yet reports of shootings in Alameda County jumped to 79 in 2023, up from 66 and 72 the two previous years. The most dangerous highway was Interstate 580, particularly in Oakland and east of Dublin...

“These shootings are notoriously hard to investigate,” said Michelle Rippy, a professor of criminal justice at California State University, East Bay. She specifically pointed to the fact that there are often fewer witnesses to freeway shootings; by their very nature, such incidents mean suspects and victims leave the scene almost instantly.

Criminals are opportunists, and they know that there is very little chance of getting arrested if they take a shot at an enemy on the highway. Reducing these incidents seems to be one of those multi-faceted problems that will take years to solve, even by a competent government.

Meanwhile, I'll avoid driving on certain East Bay freeways, just as I avoid going into certain neighborhoods in San Francisco.

Bay Area Real Estate: Rich Getting Richer

(Per Chronicle)

There are clear signs that the Bay Area housing market has peaked.  While median prices have declined in only a few counties, increases were in the low single-digits.

The number of units sold has fallen by 11-13%, indicating that deal prices would have actually declined if owners were motivated to sell.

The low-end of the market has slowed, but the high-end is still going strong (hence the distinction between the median and average prices). [bold added]

while Bay Area home sales were about 5% lower than last year’s second quarter, sales of homes above $3 million surged, bringing them in line with last year’s historical peak.

Peninsula Realtor Ken DeLeon noted that foreign buyers, especially from China, are still active in the $10 million-and-up range. However, their purchases of homes in the $2 million to $4 million range “has tapered off, almost to zero,” The imposition of more stringent capital controls has made it hard for most people to get money out of China, unless you’re “uber wealthy,” DeLeon said. Most Chinese buyers purchasing high-priced homes in the Bay Area are doing it through their companies, he added.

In related news about the high-end, the median home price in Atherton has risen to $8.1 million, nearly double the tony towns of Hillsborough and Los Altos Hills.

A business colleague bought a house in Atherton in 1975 on a junior executive's pay (about $50,000). He was fond of telling me (bragging?) at the time that he was making more on price appreciation than from his salary.

Here's hoping that John held on (or traded up!).

And I Don't Even Know What's SUP

I haven't even tried Standup Paddle boarding (SUP)--the placid Foster City lagoon is perfect for beginners--and the next thing, electrically assisted water bikes, is already here.

(Chronicle photo)

The bikes, which [Jessica] Schiller invented in 2013, resemble mini-catamarans: a standard bicycle frame suspended over two inflatable pontoons, with a drop-down propeller powered by pedals and a 750-watt motor. The pontoon design provides stability so users can ride the bikes without having to worry about tipping or getting wet.

There's a practical application for this invention. Residents of Alameda Island typically drive across bridges or through the Webster and Posey underwater tubes to get to jobs in Oakland and the rest of the Bay Area. The bikes are a way for solo commuters to traverse the Oakland-Alameda estuary.

Oakland (top) and Alameda (bottom)
are 200 yards apart (Google Maps)

Oakland and Alameda officials have given the Mill Valley entrepreneur the go-ahead to install a fleet of 25 electrically assisted water bikes that will allow commuters to ride between the Jack London Square area in Oakland and either Mariner Square or the Grand Street dock in Alameda.

As with the land-based scooters and e-bikes that fill the roads, commuters will use a mobile app to claim a bike on either side of the estuary, ride across the 200-yard expanse of water and surrender it on the opposite side, paying by the minute.

There's no practical commuting application here in Foster City, but I can see my neighbors getting these for their backyard docks, and yes, for some of them money is not a problem.

First World Story

(Alameda County FD via SF Chronicle)

The Alameda County Fire Department rescued two ducklings from a storm drain, a story that wouldn't otherwise be notable except that the firefighters: 1) Played a cellphone YouTube video with mother-duck sounds to lure the ducklings from the pipe; 2) Spent an hour looking for the family so as not to consign them to an uncertain fate with Animal Control. A happy ending resulted:

they checked the Monarch Bay Golf Club and spotted ducks in the distance....When [firefighter Brendan] Burke approached, the duck and her 10 nestlings initially retreated, until one of the lost ducklings let out a chirp. The mother duck corralled the two little ones and the family was happily reunited.

Seven ducks in a box.

Flashback: three years ago at our behest the Foster City Fire Department rescued six ducklings (plus one that came running from the bushes when it heard its siblings) from a storm drain. We watched them overnight, then opened our windows wide in the hope that the mother would hear them. She did.

The green-eyeshade people would say that duck rescue is a waste of taxpayer resources; however, if it were put to a vote I am certain that Bay Area residents would overwhelmingly disagree.