NBA Finals: Unexpected and Interesting

Giannis Antentokounmpo and Chris Paul (nba.com)

The NBA playoffs have been a war of attrition, with teams trying to survive with their best players being knocked out of the playoffs. If every team was at full strength, we would probably be watching a Lakers-Nets final, but without Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, or James Harden both favorites lost in the early rounds. Nevertheless I'm watching.

Perennial All-Star and Hall of Fame shoo-in Chris Paul had never played in a conference final, much less in a championship.

He made the Phoenix Suns a sentimental favorite; at 36, the point guard is running out of chances to get a ring. However, I also feel sympathy for two-time MVP Giannis Antentokounmpo, a young, likeable, talented giant who has trouble making free throws (like a pro golfer who can drive the ball 350 yards but can't make a 5-foot putt).

So I like both the Phoenix Suns, who have never won a championship, and the Milwaukee Bucks, whose last title was 50 years ago. Both teams are flawed but seem evenly matched, and the last two games were decided in the final minute.

Now, a small complaint about modern sports commentary. Analysts bombard the audience with statistics, some interesting but many times not. If they're going to occupy our precious attention span, please don't waste it on triteness masquerading as insight.

Going into Saturday's game, reporters kept repeating the fact that in a series tied at 2-2

the team that wins Game 5 has gone on to win the series 72% of the time (21-8).

Note: Milwaukee won and holds a 3-2 lead in the series.

When kids are introduced to algebra and elementary statistics, they are asked to construct a simple coin-flip table and calculate the probability of getting heads twice in a row. There are four possible outcomes to two coin flips, so there's a one-in-four chance (25%) of getting heads twice.

But what's the probability of getting at least one head in the next two flips? Obviously, the answer is 3 out of 4, or 75%.

If the NBA finals has two evenly matched teams (almost by definition, if the games are split 2-2), then a simple statistical model in the absence of data would predict that the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the championship 75% of the time. The actual result, 72%, is well within the range of expected outcomes in a population of 29 data points.

The surprise would be if the historical record produced a number higher than 80% or lower than 70%. Now that would be interesting.

[Update - 7/20/21: The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 6, making them NBA champions. Their victory adjusts the historical record slightly: teams that win Game 5 become champions 73.3% (22-8) of the time.]

Pearl Harbor's Tree of Life

Architect Alfred Preis (1911-1993) designed the USS Arizona Memorial. The "tree of life" sculpture at the main Visitors' Center is repeated at the Memorial's wall of names.

USS Arizona Gun Turret #3

2016

1995

“Upon this sacred spot, we honor the specific heroes who surrendered their lives...while they were in full bloom, so that we could have our full share of tomorrows.”
            ----Olin F. Teague, Chairman, Veterans Affairs Committee, 1962.

She Should Have Stopped But She Had to Go

The injured Dori Stolmaker
(NY Daily News photo)

92-year-old Arizona driver Persis Draper hit a jogger, Dori Stolmaker, then drove away because "she had uncontrollable diarrhea." The jogger was hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries.

Persis Draper was only charged with misdemeanor and civil offenses, probably because she returned to the scene after she relieved her physical distress, and the victim was going to be okay.

It's easy to make light of this event, but your humble observer has a measure of sympathy for Persis Draper. Aging greatly reduces the ability to react to unforeseen events, and in life s**t happens. In the future Persis should take care of business before she goes anywhere.

Tone It Down

The shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and 18 other people earlier today was an act of evil. As of this writing Congresswoman Giffords has survived, but six people, including Federal Judge John Roll and a nine-year-old girl, have died. The suspect, Jared Loughner, had shown signs of aberrant behavior:

Lynda Sorenson said she took a math class with Loughner last summer at Pima Community College's Northwest campus and told the Arizona Daily Star he was "obviously very disturbed." "He disrupted class frequently with nonsensical outbursts," she said.

Although little is known so far, commentators are already attempting to link Mr. Loughner with their political opponents. Here is liberal NYT columnist Paul Krugman attributing the incident to the GOP “climate of hate”:

You know that Republicans will yell about the evils of partisanship whenever anyone tries to make a connection between the rhetoric of Beck, Limbaugh, etc. and the violence I fear we’re going to see in the months and years ahead. But violent acts are what happen when you create a climate of hate. And it’s long past time for the GOP’s leaders to take a stand against the hate-mongers.

Conservative blogs like Gateway Pundit are also weighing in:

[Loughner] was reportedly left-wing, quite liberal. His favorite books: Communist Manifesto, Mein Kampf.

The evil act has rightly been condemned by everyone. But also deserving of condemnation is our rush to impugn entire groups of people because of the actions of a few. We don’t profile all Muslims at airports although some are terrorists, nor should we condemn the entire Tea Party if some of its supporters turn to violence (it’s far from clear whether Jared Loughner is a Tea-Party supporter).

Let’s tone it down, people. When you say that this or that politician is ruining the world, our lives, and our future, it shouldn't be surprising how some disturbed people react. © 2011 Stephen Yuen

Sinking Arizona

Conflicted thoughts about Arizona:

Like most outsiders, I had a negative initial reaction to Arizona’s immigration law. I can see why—although I think such words are used purposefully to inflame--phrases such as police state and Nazi have been thrown around. A command from law enforcement to “show me your papers” even under restricted circumstances recalls the days when jackboots marched across Europe.

It also wasn’t that long ago that American citizens were singled out for incarceration because of their ancestry. Japanese-Americans, in fact all Asian-Americans, are acutely sensitive to any laws that hint of racial profiling. We’re concerned that it might happen again. (Parenthetical remark: and yet we chide the Jews for being paranoid when the leaders of nations call for their death and destruction. Some people’s worries are less valid than others.)

But I also identify with Arizonans who feel that they are being overrun by drug smugglers and violent criminals. The Federal Government has done a woefully inadequate job of sealing the borders. Large majorities of Arizonans wanted protection, and what were the local authorities to do? Let’s say that they hadn’t acted--if both Federal and State law enforcement continued to ignore the problem, the consequences could be far worse.

More people may begin to take the law into their own hands. The near-elimination of gun permit requirements later this summer already signals that the Wild West mentality is taking hold in Arizona.

the new law will allow people who have had no education about Arizona's laws and no training on the shooting range to carry a concealed gun.

Whether loose concealed-carry laws reduce crime is debatable. What is certain, however, is that the prevalence of firearms will cause some people to stay away from Arizona out of fear, joining others who will boycott the state because of its stance on immigration. An economic boycott, illegal immigrants, crime, guns everywhere, and an unemployment rate near 10%….let’s just pray for the safety and well-being of ALL who live in Arizona. © 2010 Stephen Yuen