Flamping

Flamping in Wisconsin (WSJ photo)

By now most people are familiar with the term glamping (glamorous, i.e., luxurious camping), and now there's flamping:

Meet plane campers. They incorporate an obsession for aviation into their rustic getaways, and pitch tents beneath the wings of their small aircraft.

“There’s something about camping with your airplane that’s different from camping with your car,” explains Roger Roberts, a cardiologist.

Fans flock to the Sun ’n Fun Aerospace Expo in Lakeland, Fla., or to smaller airports that offer that unique blend of flying in and camping out—call it flamping.

The epicenter of this pastime is at Wittman Regional Airport here in Wisconsin each summer. Plane campers park in neat rows that stretch as far as the eye can see. Wet clothes and towels hanging from propellers flap in the breeze.

This isn’t your typical commune with nature. The Experimental Aircraft Association’s AirVenture Oshkosh, sometimes compared with Woodstock, routinely draws more than 10,000 planes to Oshkosh and surrounding small airports.

Flamping is squarely a middle class activity. Used Cessnas are in the $200,000 range, well within the reach of retirees with a decent nest egg and a paid-up house.

Flamping, or even glamping, is not something that this traveler is inclined to do, however. Preferring to maximize the enjoyment at each destination, I don't want to be burdened by hauling around too much stuff, much less setting it up and taking it down. Nevertheless....is this a great country or what?

NBA Finals: Unexpected and Interesting

Giannis Antentokounmpo and Chris Paul (nba.com)

The NBA playoffs have been a war of attrition, with teams trying to survive with their best players being knocked out of the playoffs. If every team was at full strength, we would probably be watching a Lakers-Nets final, but without Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, or James Harden both favorites lost in the early rounds. Nevertheless I'm watching.

Perennial All-Star and Hall of Fame shoo-in Chris Paul had never played in a conference final, much less in a championship.

He made the Phoenix Suns a sentimental favorite; at 36, the point guard is running out of chances to get a ring. However, I also feel sympathy for two-time MVP Giannis Antentokounmpo, a young, likeable, talented giant who has trouble making free throws (like a pro golfer who can drive the ball 350 yards but can't make a 5-foot putt).

So I like both the Phoenix Suns, who have never won a championship, and the Milwaukee Bucks, whose last title was 50 years ago. Both teams are flawed but seem evenly matched, and the last two games were decided in the final minute.

Now, a small complaint about modern sports commentary. Analysts bombard the audience with statistics, some interesting but many times not. If they're going to occupy our precious attention span, please don't waste it on triteness masquerading as insight.

Going into Saturday's game, reporters kept repeating the fact that in a series tied at 2-2

the team that wins Game 5 has gone on to win the series 72% of the time (21-8).

Note: Milwaukee won and holds a 3-2 lead in the series.

When kids are introduced to algebra and elementary statistics, they are asked to construct a simple coin-flip table and calculate the probability of getting heads twice in a row. There are four possible outcomes to two coin flips, so there's a one-in-four chance (25%) of getting heads twice.

But what's the probability of getting at least one head in the next two flips? Obviously, the answer is 3 out of 4, or 75%.

If the NBA finals has two evenly matched teams (almost by definition, if the games are split 2-2), then a simple statistical model in the absence of data would predict that the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the championship 75% of the time. The actual result, 72%, is well within the range of expected outcomes in a population of 29 data points.

The surprise would be if the historical record produced a number higher than 80% or lower than 70%. Now that would be interesting.

[Update - 7/20/21: The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 6, making them NBA champions. Their victory adjusts the historical record slightly: teams that win Game 5 become champions 73.3% (22-8) of the time.]

On November 3rd I'm Voting in Person

Foster City polling center on March 3rd

By early March most Bay Area residents were aware of the coronavirus. Many people had already begun modifying their behavior: stocking up on food and cleaning supplies, minimizing going out, wearing masks, and washing hands.

However, concerns about this mysterious affliction did not deter a crowd, which included your humble blogger, from going to the polls during the March 3rd primaries.

It turned out that the virus had entered the Bay Area by January, perhaps even in December. And yet...there was no appreciable spike in infections despite the Statewide shelter-in-place having not begun until March 19th. (Infections and deaths as of March 31st were 8,155 and 171, respectively.)

With the current controversy about the reputed dangers of voting-in-person, the possible problems of widespread voting-by-mail, and the tribulations of the U.S. Postal Service, the above prefatory remarks are leading to the following point:

Wired: Honestly, Just Vote In Person—It’s Safer Than You Think

After state Democrats fought unsuccessfully to extend the deadline for mailing back absentee ballots, the ensuing photos of long lines at Milwaukee polling places seemed to presage an explosion of Covid-19 cases.

But the bomb never blew. As I [Gilad Edelman, Wired political writer and Yale JD] observed in May, there was no noticeable rise in coronavirus cases thanks to the Wisconsin primary. A follow-up study by researchers at the City of Milwaukee Health Department and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention concluded, “No clear increase in cases, hospitalizations, or deaths was observed after the election.” In fact, case numbers in Milwaukee were lower in the weeks after the election than in the weeks before it. There are caveats: In-person turnout was low overall thanks to broad use of mail-in ballots, and we don’t know how coronavirus prevalence in March will compare with November. Still, it’s telling that there have been no credible reports of virus spikes attributable to any other election this year, even though ill-considered polling place closures have led to further instances of Milwaukee-style overcrowding.

I will wear a mask, practice social distancing, and bring hand sanitizer because I may be touching buttons, screens, and styluses. If there's in-person voting on November 3rd I'm going.

Cheese Names Stand Alone

Wisconsin's Bel Gioioso found that its "American Grana"
was illegal because of Italy's Grana Padano. (WSJ photo)

Sartori Co. is a family-owned Wisconsin cheesemaker that has been in business since 1939. The company makes its own versions of Asiago, Parmesan, and Romano. However, due to European Union naming restrictions on imports,

Sartori had to trademark new names, leading to the birth of “Sartiago” and “Sarmesan."

Moreover, EU trade agreements will soon force changes to the names of American cheese exports to Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, and Mexico, among others.

In America we are accustomed to companies protecting their names, formulas, and logos through trademark, patent, and copyright law. Europe seems to be putting a wall around words for geographic regions and whole industries; it is also trying to extend the moat worldwide through trade agreements.

Europe's position is somewhat understandable---Americans wouldn't like it if Chinese winemakers labeled their product as Sonoma (Sino ma?) white. Nevertheless, this principle could be taken too far. What if 100 cheese names were off limits? What about 1,000?

The unintended consequence to Europe would be if this barrier induces American suppliers to change what consumers value in cheese, for example, what the cows are fed (e.g., organic corn, organic grass), the breed of cow (e.g., Guernsey, White Holstein), or manufacturing process (no mold!, no anaerobic bacteria! made with sea salt! ).

Protectionism often boomerangs on the industries being protected.

Business-Friendly Enough

Sen. Ron Johnson (Washington Times)

Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson opposes the current Senate tax proposal: [bold added]

Mr. Johnson said Republican plans prioritize corporations over “pass-through” entities—sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited liability companies and S Corporations—whose owners pay taxes through individual returns and at individual income-tax rates, rather than corporate rates. The Senate plan, like the House plan, proposes to cut the corporate rate from 35% to 20%.

As an owner and part-owner of various pass-through LLCs, your humble blogger is in favor of the bill in its current form though my LLCs won't gain directly. I am also an owner of publicly traded stocks that will benefit from lowered corporate taxes; from personal experience I know many LLC-owners who are in my position.

Furthermore, when a business achieves scale it often is structured with multiple pass-through as well as taxpaying ("C Corporation") entities, so many C-Corp beneficiaries are S/LLC/partnership owners as well. It is exceedingly rare to find a strictly pass-through owner who won't benefit from a lowering of C-Corp taxes.

The bill is business-friendly enough, and I find it hard to believe that Senator Johnson is letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Coming In To The Cold

Priceless expression (Economist photo)

In California we like to pay huge premiums for stuff that is hardly distinguishable from the unbranded commodity--think water and "organic" produce--but to seek out an item that the rest of the country avoids? We want bitter cold.

CryoZone invites customers to spend $75 for three minutes in a cryogenic chamber cooled to -110°C [-166°F] for fledgling freezers and -132°C [-206°F] for chilling connoisseurs. The treatment is meant to calm inflammation and soothe muscle soreness, but Angelenos swear by it to solve all sorts of ills, from tennis elbow to the urgent need to lose a bit of weight before a daughter’s wedding.

Cryotherapy chambers are unlikely to be sold for home use any time soon. In 2015 a Nevada cryo-worker died when she took a solo dip after hours. Another person now must be present to avoid such mishaps.

Yelp lists 27 cryotherapy outlets in the SF Bay Area.

Hey, local cryophiles, move to Wisconsin where the sub-zero temperatures are free, and buy an equivalent house in a university town for 20-25% of the price you received for your property in the Bay Area. Think of it as unfreezing your assets while you freeze your...

On Wisconsin

I don't know why conservatives are getting so exercised about State Legislators not reporting for duty (who would want to emulate John Kerry?). Conservatives in the past have had this to say about lawmakers: "we'll pay them if they'll just stay home."

Not only are these guys not showing up, they're helping to stimulate the travel industry. So it's doubly good. They should be praised, not excoriated.