Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Take It or Leave It

I came across this WSJ article after deciding to claim Social Security benefits at the full retirement age of 66:

Readers Argue for Collecting Social Security Right Away But our advice is still to delay benefits as long as you can.

Reader arguments were: 1) You never know what's going to happen; 2) Related to (1)-- the breakeven age of 82 is too far away; 3) Taking SS benefits sooner will preserve one's nest egg; 4) There can be a favorable impact on others' payouts under disability or special circumstances.

The letter-writers did not dissuade author Glenn Ruffenach, who argues for waiting:
First, many Americans simply haven’t saved enough money for retirement. And second, many of us will live longer than we imagine. (For 65-year-olds today, more than 1 in 3 will live to age 90, and more than 1 in 7 will live to 95.) We are likely to need every dollar we can get our hands on in later life, and waiting to claim Social Security is one of the best ways to do that.
Comments:
1) I haven't reconsidered my decision to claim benefits now. (By the way, Social Security does allow you to reverse your decision if you give the money back within 12 months.)
2) Counter-intuitively, I'm beginning to think that people with more income and assets should claim SS now because of income taxes on required minimum distributions from IRAs and 401(k)s. Also, if a high-income person has a rate of return of 8% or higher, then investing the lower SS payout now will beat the higher payouts later.
3) The basic advice may well be: if you need the money now, wait; but if you don't need the money, take it!
4) These general rules ignore a host of other factors, such as the likelihood that Social Security and the taxability of benefits will change, the solvency of the system, the rate of inflation, and individual considerations (health, dependents, spouses).
5) Maybe the rule should be: there are so many variables that it's impossible to make the right decision without consulting a professional advisor.

Note - related to (2) above: this chart by the Motley Fool says that the crossover age is 90 if the recipient takes the lower distributions now and invests them at 5%.

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