Friday, October 30, 2020

A Spike in Coverage

There's been a spike in coronavirus cases in the United States.

Although the WSJ article was packed with information, your humble blogger has trouble grasping written descriptions of numerical data and can comprehend it more easily in graphs or tables. Below are graphs from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 website via Google:


U.S. Total Cases = 9,020,000



U.S. Deaths = 229,000


Comments:

1) Yes, infections have spiked, but deaths per day have leveled off.

2) With total U.S. cases of 9.02 million and total deaths of 229,000, the cumulative data showed that one has a 2.5% chance of dying if one contracts the coronavirus.

3) The chances of recovery from COVID-19 are getting better than 2.5%. Whether due to improved treatment, better health among the new cases (for example, younger, fitter patients), earlier detection, or a combination of factors, the graphs show that the chances of dying after diagnosis is now 1% or less.

4) The coronavirus is unquestionably deadlier than the flu. According to the CDC 2018-2019 infections and deaths were 35.5 million and 34,200, respectively, which is a 0.1% chance of dying if one catches the flu. In 2017-2018 infections and deaths were 44.8 million and 61,099, respectively, a 0.14% mortality.

5) A vaccine is not yet available for the coronavirus, while flu infections and deaths are undoubtedly lower because a flu vaccine has been widely distributed and is inexpensive.

6) If I were in charge, I would recommend masks and social distancing indoors with modifications for quality of ventilation. I support universal reopening and would require each establishment (e.g., schools, churches, restaurants) to post its policy so that patrons are fully informed before they make the decision to enter. Then again, it's probably a good thing that I'm not in charge.

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