San Francisco Agonistes

Lately the hometown Chronicle has been running one or more articles a day on the deterioration of the once-wonderful City. A recent sampling:

Market St.: like a movie where all
the people disappeared. (Chron)

Yes, people are leaving San Francisco. After decades of growth, is the city on the decline?

Plunging BART and Muni ridership. The weakest online sales tax collections in the state. A 20% drop in apartment rents. Spiking office vacancies.

San Francisco’s bleak economic vital signs over the past six months strongly suggest residents are leaving amid record job losses, the entrenchment of remote work, and a coronavirus pandemic that shows no signs of ending.

‘Worst in the state’: S.F. sales tax data show likely population decline

Sales tax data shows San Francisco’s population likely declined during the coronavirus pandemic, the city’s chief economist Ted Egan told The Chronicle.

From April to June, the city’s sales tax revenue dropped to $30.8 million, down 43% from the prior year. Of the city’s 8.5% sales tax, it collects 1% for local use.

S.F. is facing its worst fiscal crisis in decades. Here’s the city’s 41-point plan for recovery

The Economic Recovery Task Force proposed 41 recommendations in its final report on strategies to revive the economy during and after the pandemic. The group called for immediate aid to artists and small businesses and reiterated long-standing goals such as more affordable housing and economic support for minority communities.

But with the city in its worst fiscal crisis in decades, achieving the goals could be tough if they require new funding. The city resolved a $1.5 billion deficit — on paper, in the current budget — using money expected from Proposition F [blogger's note: it would increase the SF business "gross receipts" tax and reduce the SF payroll tax.]

Businesses and residents are leaving, so the City's answer is to raise taxes, causing more to flee in a downward spiral reminiscent of the Rust Belt out-migrations of the 1970's. As for 41-point plans? Straight to the round file, as we used to say.

To be sure, it's entirely possible that San Francisco can pull itself out of its tailspin.

It is still the acknowledged lead city of the Bay Area, which is home to eight (Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Visa, Tesla, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Adobe) of the 20 most valuable companies in the U.S. Other Bay Area companies, for example Cisco, Oracle, Twitter, Netflix, Intel, and Chevron, are world leaders in their respective industries.

Technological wizardry envelops us. Unfortunately, little of it has shown up in governance. If San Francisco were a stock, expect it to come down more before buying in.