San Francisco Decline Confirmed

(Graphic from Daily Mail)

San Francisco's population fell 7% (874,000 to 815,000) from 2020 to 2021. The biggest decline was in white young adults: [bold added]

Among those age 25 to 29 who identified as female, white and non-Hispanic, the population dropped by 26%. White men of the age group saw nearly the exact same decline.

The data shows that young people in general were more likely to leave the city. The city lost about 20% of all residents age 25 to 29 over this time and 15% of those 20 to 24.

As for those whose numbers grew,

The groups with the largest gains were Asian men and women between 70 and 74 years of age, whose estimated numbers increased by 8.4% and 9.5% respectively. This could be partially due to San Franciscans aging into those groups, as the 65-to-69 Asian population stayed essentially flat and the 60-to-64 population dropped.

Young people, white or otherwise, fled San Francisco in disproportionate numbers. They make up the future workers and upstanding citizens who will run things and pay taxes.

Meanwhile, San Francisco's gains in the elderly cohort point to ever-increasing demand for services. (Previously we had commented on the grim outlook for baby boomers who need caregivers.)

Two years ago we said that if San Francisco were a stock, we wouldn't be buyers, and this stock hasn't hit bottom yet.