It's Very Clear

Consumer sentiment, which tracks inflation, and consumer
confidence, a jobs-based indicator, both fell in 2022 (WSJ)

Following up on yesterday's post on the prices I've been seeing at the store and at the pump, this morning's inflation report confirms that inflation is "easing":

U.S. Inflation Eased Slightly to 8.5% in July

U.S. inflation eased slightly but remained close to a four-decade high in July despite cooling energy prices.

The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that the consumer-price index rose 8.5% in July from the same month a year ago, down from 9.1% in June. June marked the fastest pace of inflation since November 1981. The CPI measures what consumers pay for goods and services.

Core CPI, which excludes often volatile energy and food prices, held steady in July, increasing 5.9% from the same month a year ago, a sign that broad price pressures remain in the economy.

Because these reports are based on recent historical data, they don't necessarily capture what is going to happen.

There are moderating trends in real estate. In June we pointed out the dramatic negative effect that interest rate hikes can have on housing prices. In the Bay Area we have seen seller markdowns, fewer bids on listings, and houses being pulled from the market.

We're hopeful, but don't break out the bubbly. Barring a severe recession, the overall price level will not be dropping. In fact, Fed Chairman Powell's goal is to get inflation down to "the Fed’s 2% target within a couple of years." With apologies to the Gershwins, it's very clear high prices are here to stay.