Kansas Surprises

State Capitol - Topeka, Kansas

On Tuesday Kansas voters refused to overturn a state court ruling that found a right to abortion in the Kansas constitution:

One message is that voters are wary of extremes on either side of the abortion issue. A majority of the public supports a right to abortion at least up to several weeks of pregnancy. This is disappointing to those who believe life begins at conception, but it means the pro-life side has persuading to do if it wants to win the abortion debate.

That’s the burden of democracy, which is what the Supreme Court allowed to return on abortion in overturning Roe. Urging Congress to pass a national abortion ban, as some on the right want, looks like a certain loser—in addition to likely being unconstitutional. Abortion is an issue for the states to decide.

The reason that the outcome was surprising to most is that Kansas is "a culturally conservative state with 350,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats." The pro-abortion results were not surprising to this humble observer, however.

As I wrote in May:

State and local governance, aka federalism, is indeed messy and inefficient. Abortion-rights supporters seem to dread having to argue a case, in 34 jurisdictions no less, that they thought they had already won, but I suspect they'll find it easier than feared.

Everyone has had to wrestle with the meaning of fetal life for 49 years, and IMHO the majority across the United States has decided that it is less important than the health of a mother.

Perhaps it will dawn on both sides that the overturning of Roe was not an unmitigated defeat for abortion rights or a clearcut victory for the anti-abortion side. Where one Party rules, like in California, one side doesn't have to listen to the other, but in most States they will have to. Compromises will be reached, and, finally, maybe, after half a century temperatures will cool:

abortion never really went away after Roe; we won't like the heat for the next 3-5 years, but maybe things will cool off after legislators pass or reaffirm laws post-Dobbs, the people react, and the laws are adjusted again.