San Francisco Gloom and Doom

(Chronicle illustration)

The reversal of fortune happened quickly.

San Francisco boomed before COVID, despite persistent homelessness and property-crime problems. It was the cultural center of the tech universe and a top-five American tourist destination. Commercial and residential properties commanded the highest rents and/or prices in the nation; trains, buses, and roads were packed during the week.

During COVID commuters realized that they didn't have to endure a grueling two hours of daily travel to get work done, while residents found more spacious and cheaper lodgings outside the Bay Area.

San Francisco could be in a doom loop.

Interconnected forces trap the city in economic free fall: Workers remain primarily remote; office space sits empty; businesses shutter; mass transit is sharply reduced or even bankrupt, making it even harder for low- and middle-wage workers who enable restaurants and small businesses to operate, causing major budget shortfalls from declining tax revenue that imperil numerous city services, trigger mass layoffs of city workers and shred the social safety net, all of which causes more people to leave.

Cheerleaders for the City argue that San Francisco hasn't lost its fundamental charm; commuters and tourists will return, and the city will spring to life.

IMHO, the downward spiral will be very difficult to reverse. The surpluses have evaporated, and with budget cuts to police, homelessness, and transportation programs, those who departed will have little reason to come back.

I hope that I'm wrong