Sub-Zero Interest in a President Newsom

He does look the part (this nation)

Ever since he worked for Willie Brown in the 1990's, Gavin Newsom had the look of a politician who had his eye on bigger things. He has held in succession the offices of San Francisco supervisor, San Francisco mayor, California lieutenant governor, and California governor. There's now only one higher office to conquer, and he's denied that he's interested. [bold added]

Gov. Gavin Newsom has “sub-zero interest” in running for president in 2024, he told The San Francisco Chronicle editorial board on Thursday.

Newsom is running for re-election to a second term as California governor, which would last through 2026. Asked if he would promise to voters that he wouldn’t run for president before the end of that term, he said he believes Vice President Kamala Harris should be the next president after Joe Biden.

“Yeah, I mean, I have sub-zero interest,” he said. “It's not even on my radar.”

Newsom has made similar claims about having no interest in running for president before, but it hasn’t stopped speculation that he wants to be commander in chief someday. He’s stoked those rumors by positioning himself as a national political figure and publicly sparring with prominent Republicans, including former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

"Sub-zero" is an odd choice of words. It is the name of the highest-end refrigerators that can run into the tens of thousands of dollars. Governor Newsom is clearly familiar with the term, just as, unmasked and closely seated contrary to his own directives in 2021, he is used to dining at expensive restaurants like the French Laundry.

Governor Newsom could have said that he wasn't interested in the Presidency until after his presumed second term ended in 2026, but all he would say is that he supports Joe Biden, then Kamala Harris. His answer means that if the prospects are propitious, he would run in 2024 in the midst of his second term as Governor.

The governor is evasive, ambitious, and will sacrifice principles and friendships to get elected. Although I do agree with some of his positions, as I wrote in 2017, I would never vote for him.

He's Past Dissembling

86-year-old party elder Willie Brown wants the Democrats to win, but that doesn't stop him from giving them advice they might not want to hear.

WB: our next Justice (WSJ)

Forget about the Court and Concentrate on November

Forget about it, it’s over. Democrats need to put the Supreme Court appointment fight behind them as quickly as possible and move on to the real battle in November.

They have no power in the Senate, and they cannot afford to spin their wheels over an appointment whose conclusion is already foretold by the Republican majority.

And there is no avenue of attack open to them. The fear of a rollback of Roe vs. Wade or a shutdown of Obamacare plays well in blue states, but it also carries the potential for blowback in the battleground states.

Admit D.C. and Puerto Rico as States (after winning the Presidency and Congress)

Flag of Puerto Rico

Democrats’ best revenge for the Republican court packing is to win the White House and Congress in November — then immediately admit the heavily Democratic District of Columbia and Puerto Rico as the 51st and 52nd states.

It would forever shift control of the Senate to Democrats and go a long way toward fixing the red-state bias of the electoral college.

Because their economies are dependent on Federal spending, Puerto Rico and D.C. will add four reliably Democratic Senate votes for the foreseeable future. Your humble blogger would cheer this development if the people of Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico vote for Statehood. (I would also cheer California splitting into at least three States, but that's for another time.)

"Idiot" Trump has a Point on Mail-In Ballots

it’s very hard to strike someone from the voter rolls. The rule is, if someone misses two consecutive federal general elections — a presidential election and a midterm — and then misses two more after failing to respond to a mailed query from county registrars, they’re supposed to be tossed off the rolls.

So, you can be gone from your registered address — or dead — for a long time before the state gets around to erasing you. Some estimates say that up to 10% of California’s 20 million registered voters aren’t where the state thinks they are.

Nonetheless, ballots will be going to their listed addresses. So some people who have moved won’t get ballots. Residents at the old addresses will get ballots for people who are no longer living there or are no longer living, period.

For the sake of the Republic and the Constitution I hope a clear result obtains in November. That's more important than my choices winning.

Willie Advises the Democrats

Willie Brown is unabashedly partisan, but he doesn't hesitate to call out his fellow Democrats when he thinks they're on the wrong track:

Burning Kenosha used-car lot (Chron)

Burning and Looting Will Hand the Election to Trump
If they stand up and condemn the “demonstrators,” the left wing will label them as Trump flunkies and they’ll be in all sorts of trouble.

If they keep quiet or offer passive responses, voters will assume they’re OK with burning and looting.

What we need to do is have everyone, including the media, stop calling the after-dark destruction “demonstrations.”

The Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. did not cross the bridge at Selma under cover of darkness. You can’t even read a protest sign at night.

(NBC News photo)

Duck the Debates
Biden would probably get his backside kicked.

Biden has never been a good debater. He’s too civilized, too nuanced for a matchup with Trump.

It would be like Willie Brown taking on LeBron James in a one-on-one pickup game.

If the polls are to believed, Biden has a respectable lead over Trump in the states that are likely to decide the election.

Why mess with success? Why give your opponent an audience?

Kimberly Guilfoyle's speech was a blast

Democrat vs. Republican Conventions
In terms of entertainment value, the Republicans won hands down. Their telethon was livelier and better-produced than the Democrats’...

They also had a couple of showstoppers, like Sen. Tim Scott, a Black Republican from South Carolina, declaring that only in America could his family have gone “from cotton to Congress in one lifetime.” The best line of the convention, in my opinion...

Judging by the national reaction, the real star of week was San Francisco’s own former first lady Kimberly Guilfoyle. My cell phone started blowing up even before she was halfway through her “Evita” performance.

It was reality TV at its best.

Kim Kardashian, watch out.

According to Willie Brown Democrats should denounce the riots and duck the debates. It's not an inspiring strategy, but it's probably a sound one.

Willie Brown is a Lucky Guy

At the Houston debates last September (Chron/AP)

86-year-old Willie Brown still has his fastball:

I got a call from a guy who interviewed me when I was in Dallas for my sister’s funeral in January 2019.

“I asked you what you thought the ideal Democratic ticket would be, and you said, ‘Biden for president. Kamala Harris for VP.’ I even have it on tape,” he said.

“Play if for me,” I said.

He did.

“What do you think?” he asked.

“I think that was my lucky day. I just wish you had asked me to pick that day’s lottery number.”

Here’s hoping your day is lucky as well.

Willie Brown rose to the top of Sacramento politics as California's Speaker, then glided through two terms (1996-2004) as mayor of San Francisco before its recent troubles. He's found his calling as the still-stylish political raconteur with friends on both sides of the aisle. He was lucky that day when he made the call, but he has a lot of lucky days.

To Run With Joe

(Chronicle 2003 photo)

Kamala Harris, the junior Senator from California, dropped out of the Presidential race last year. However, she is on the short list to become Joe Biden's running mate.

Her friend and mentor, Willie Brown, advised her against being on the ticket in yesterday's Chronicle:

If Joe Biden offers the vice presidential slot to Sen. Kamala Harris, my advice to her would be to politely decline.

Harris is a tested and proven campaigner who will work her backside off to get Biden elected. That said, the vice presidency is not the job she should go for — asking to be considered as attorney general in a Biden administration would be more like it.

Being picked for the vice presidency is obviously a huge honor, and if Biden wins, Harris would make history by being the first woman to hold the job.

But the glory would be short-lived, and historically, the vice presidency has often ended up being a dead end. For every George H.W. Bush, who ascended from the job to the presidency, there’s an Al Gore, who never got there.

True, the vice president does have an advantage the next time the party needs a new nominee, which in Biden’s case could be four years from now. But in the meantime, the vice president has no real power and little chance to accomplish anything independent of the president.

Basically, no one takes the vice president seriously after election day. Just ask Mike Pence.

Plus, if Biden wins, the Democrats will be moving into the White House in the middle of a pandemic and economic recession. The next few years promise to be a very bumpy ride. Barack Obama and the Democrats saved the nation from economic collapse when he took office, and their reward was a blowout loss in the 2010 midterm elections.

On the other hand, the attorney general has legitimate power. From atop the Justice Department, the boss can make a real mark on everything from police reform to racial justice to prosecuting corporate misdeeds.

And the attorney general gets to name every U.S. attorney in the country. That’s power.

Plus, given the department’s current disarray under William Barr, just showing up and being halfway sane will make the new AG a hero.

Best of all, being attorney general would give Harris enough distance from the White House to still be a viable candidate for the top slot in 2024 or 2028, no matter what the state of the nation.

John Nance Garner, Vice President to FDR, apocryphally said that the office was "not worth a bucket of warm spit.” Willie Brown seems to agree with that assessment, but the veteran California politician is (deliberately?) ignoring the possibility that Joe Biden, if he wins, will not serve the full four years.

If she has the same ambition as almost every elected politician in Washington, Kamala Harris would be crazy not to accept the invitation to run with Joe.

[Update - 8/11/20: Yes, it's Kamala Harris.]

Not Guaranteed

Buoyed by polls that show Joe Biden in a double-digit lead over President Trump, many Democrats are saying victory is in the bag. Willie Brown is not so sure. [bold added]

D Trump, W Brown, and others in 1999 (NY Daily News)

Those of you who think President Trump is politically dead and buried, think again.

By my reckoning, Trump still has a 50-50 shot at winning re-election come November.

Democrats are gleefully quoting a recent Quinnipiac University national poll that showed Joe Biden with a 15-point lead over Trump. An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll had Biden with an 11-point lead.

Given Trump’s missteps and mistakes on everything from his handling the coronavirus pandemic to his racially charged rhetoric, however, Biden should be ahead by much more.

Plus, as we know, there is often a disparity between what people tell pollsters and what they do when they actually fill out their ballots.

So knock Biden’s lead in the polls down by half.

And Trump’s base is still firm. They voted for him in 2016 when he leaned hard on race, crime and immigration, and they will vote for him again.

Put it together and it’s still a five- to seven-point race.

In other words, a toss-up.

My opinion: impeachment, coronavirus, depression-level unemployment, multi-trillion-dollar deficits, civil unrest, cold war with China...2020 is not done with us yet.

It's a long, long way to November, and it's not even guaranteed that the President will be one of those two guys.

Your Choice: The Dumbest Idea or the Worst Slogan Ever

Willie Brown in SFPD's 2018 lip-sync video

Grey eminence Willie Brown--rich, fashionable, extremely successful as California Speaker and Mayor of San Francisco--doesn't hesitate to call 'em as he sees 'em though it may not be what his Democratic Party colleagues want to hear.

According to Willie Brown there is no way "defund the police" is a winner: [bold added]

The call to “defund the police” as part of the anti-racism, anti-police-brutality movement is either one of the dumbest ideas of all time or the hands-down winner of the worst slogan ever.

...But many defenders of the concept say they don’t really mean defund — they mean reimagine. Take away dealing with homeless people from police, for example, and re-steer the money for that to social services programs.

Fine. Let’s talk about how to do that. But we’re starting from a terrible disadvantage because of that “defund” slogan...

People are legitimately shocked by the police misconduct they see on TV and social media. But everyone still wants the assurance that when they dial 911, a cop is on the way.

You take away people’s feelings of personal safety, and you lose voters.

While I do agree that we should restrict the number of interactions between armed public servants--for example, taking accident reports, clearing homeless encampments, and reporting internet scams may well be offloaded to someone other than the police--asking the public to distinguish types of incidents then calling the right number is too much of a burden. I like the simplicity of "911", which like Google's home page can branch off in a multitude of directions.

Final thought, not original: they meant "defund the police" and tried to retreat to "re-imagine the police" after the outcry. A sensible riposte is why didn't you say "reimagine" in the first place?

Giving His Party the Willies

(Photo by Dallas Morning News)

Willie Brown is a partisan grey eminence of the Democratic Party, but that doesn't stop him from making political assessments that his colleagues don't want to hear. [bold added]

In the case of the pandemic, our best interests are twofold: our physical health and our economic health.

So far, Democrats give the impression they hold our health in highest regard. Govs. Andrew Cuomo of New York, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and our own Gavin Newsom have been the party’s most vocal supporters of a stay-at-home strategy.

Republicans, of course, are taking their cue from President Trump and presenting themselves as the champions of the economy. The sooner the full reopening, the better....

The question is, which side will voters be on come November?

My bet is on the reopening.

People are concerned about their health, but their fear of not making the rent or mortgage is much more tangible and immediate.

We Democrats try to assure people that we can have a shutdown and still help them with the rent.

But the public doesn’t see it. Those $1,200 stimulus payments are already a distant memory.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s push for a $3 trillion spending package, much of which would help city and state governments cope with the pandemic, is great public policy. But unless your paycheck comes from the government, you probably don’t care that much about state and local budgets.

You care about the rent.

IMHO, Willie Brown is probably right about Republican success in November, but a second wave of infection could make him wrong.

By the way, the Chronicle headline writer took liberties with the text by converting Willie Brown's "economic health" into the more value-laden "Wealth". Indeed, the Chronicle is just reinforcing the readership's beliefs that Republicans choose filthy lucre over health and safety, and it's not the worst misrepresentation we've ever seen.

Please Don't Lean Against It

(abcnews photo)

Willie Brown:

And while you’re out there, be sure to check out the giant Christmas tree on the fourth floor of the Westfield San Francisco Centre.

I’ve seen a lot of big Christmas trees in my time, but this the first one that’s upside down.

Upside-down trees are not just for expensive displays. What started as an upscale affectation has moved down market:

[Home Depot] sells artificial upside-down trees ranging from $79.99 to just under $300.

"People are really gravitating toward them now and putting them in their homes because it's fun and exciting for people looking for something different. People who buy it say it showcases their home and when friends walk in it's a conversation starter," Charles explained.

Fans of living trees will have to pass on this trend. Getting mud and water all over one's floor and presents doesn't make for a jolly holiday.

Mr. Brown, You're Doing a Heckuva Job

(Chronicle photo)

Democratic éminence grise Willie Brown opined five months ago that Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg would be the Democrats' dream ticket.

Now that Senator Harris dropped out of the race, Willie Brown has changed his estimation of the ability of his former protégé:

Kamala Harris should go on vacation, get away from the cameras and then get back to work...But having been cut, tailored and stretched by advisers, Harris needs to get back into her own skin.

Running for president forced her to pass herself off as an expert on health care, the economy and foreign policy.

She’s not.

Credit goes to Willie Brown for changing his stance when events prove him wrong, but it will cause this humble reader to view his predictions a little more skeptically.

Another reason I'm happy that Kamala Harris is no longer running for President: I don't have to read her memoir, which Time declared a "must-read" last January.

I subscribe to Time because it occasionally commits journalism, but its monochromatic anti-Trump editorial positions have affected other departments like book and movie reviews. Sadly, I trust partisan Willie Brown a lot more than America's former greatest news periodical.

Impeachment Advice from Willie Brown

Seasoned Democratic leader Willie Brown says the Democrats are playing with fire by holding secret impeachment hearings:

(Photo from Willie L. Brown, Jr.., Institute)

Americans inherently distrust any kind of government action that takes place out of public view, whether it’s a city council closed session or a closed-door congressional hearing.

For years, Democrats have led the charge for transparency in government, be it foreign policy or investigations into police shootings. Now these same Democrats are going behind closed doors to get the goods on Trump.

They can point to Republicans’ private interviews during their endless Benghazi investigations as justification for their strategy. But it wasn’t a good look then, and it’s not a good look now. Be better, right?

If the Democrats have hard evidence on Trump, they need to display it to the public in real time, rather than having bits and pieces and opening statements leak out without the context of the questioning that followed, from members of both parties.

Because the danger is there’s no bombshell, and Democrats replay their overhyping of Robert Mueller’s probe into the 2016 election, with no time to recover before November 2020.

The Republican theory is that the Democrats hope to damage President Trump's re-election prospects by not resolving impeachment until sometime next year, maybe even through the November election. If the Democrats had the goods they would present the case to the American people in open proceedings; because they don't, they can leak selective information from partisan "whistleblowers" to damage the President and his party. They and an anti-Trump media can bomb away without consequence; the President and the Republicans are helpless to respond to an unofficial inquiry.

The risk to the Democrats, IMHO, is that if secret proceedings carry on too long a disgusted electorate will nationalize the Congressional races more than usual. Enough Democratic seats will flip to the Republican side to limit the impeachment circus to Mr. Trump's first term.

If they open up the proceedings, Democrats have a chance of keeping the House and keeping impeachment going. They should listen to Willie Brown, but they probably won't.

Willie Brown: Rooting for a Rematch

Party elder Willie Brown thinks the strongest Democratic Presidential candidate in 2020 would be Hillary Clinton:

Clinton is the only candidate short of Barack Obama who has the brains, the battle-tested brawn and the national presence to take out Trump. And Obama can’t run.

Bernie Sanders was fading even before his heart started acting up. Joe Biden has become Trump’s main talking point in the whole Ukraine-China impeachment mess, which hardly helps him. And he wasn’t exactly running away with it before that.

Elizabeth Warren has a following, but it’s not that much broader than Sanders’. If he drops out, she might pick up some of his votes. But there’s the big question of whether she appeals to anyone besides the furthest left element of the Democratic Party.

Depression over the current field was swirling through my head the other day when I popped into the office of my friend Steven Kay and saw that famous picture of Muhammad Ali standing victorious over Sonny Liston hanging on the wall.

That’s when the light went on: “Rematch!”

Think about it. Hillary is still the smartest of the bunch. She’s also better known than any of the candidates, so she doesn’t need a lot of money.

Most of all, she can take a punch. Heck, she can take a 2-by-4 over the head and stay standing.

Willie Brown's assessment of the field makes sense. But will Mrs. Clinton still excite enough Democrats in the swing states to tip the election? (Blowout victories in California and New York don't count more than close ones.) It seems to this observer that other candidates would do a better job with younger voters. But what do I know--I'm neither young nor a Democrat.

It's a New World, Willie

Democratic Party elder Willie Brown has a practical take on the influence of the Squad (the four progressive House Democrats Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass.; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.; Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., and Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich.):

Reps. Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley (NY Post)

All the talk about dissension among House Democrats is a bit overblown.

There are 235 Democrats in the House. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has only four really rebellious members, “the squad” led by hero-of-the-left Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

When I was Assembly speaker I had five rebels on my hands, and they actually organized to try to get rid of me. They didn’t succeed, because when you come right down to it, five people out of 50 ain’t a majority.

I’m sure Pelosi’s four rebels will find that out soon enough.

I'm not confident that Willie's right about the Squad's power. Non-stop media coverage can change perceptions of influence, and more influence translates into more power in the new world of social media.

Dream Ticket

Former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown has a recommendation for his Party:

Democrats’ dream ticket is Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg

(Rhona Wise photo via the Chronicle)

the pairing of a female former prosecutor with a gay middle American who is both a Rhodes scholar and an Afghanistan war veteran would certainly get the nation’s attention.

Harris and Buttigieg are new, engaging, energetic and different enough so that the media would eat up their every appearance. Which would be priceless, because if there’s one thing Trump can’t stand, it’s someone else in the limelight.

Then come the debates.

If Harris hits hard, which she most certainly will, Trump’s first instinct would be to hit back even harder.

That could lead to Trump lashing out.

There’s a fine line between hitting back and flipping out, and Trump is fully capable of taking things too far.

He could make Harris out to be the victim rather than the attacker. And in the process make himself look unhinged.

Meanwhile, the level-headed and likable Buttigieg would be hitting the midlands, coming off as the most reasonable person in the race.

IMHO, seasoned politician Willie Brown is indulging in fanciful escapism because he saw the handwriting on the wall after last week's debates:

Bad news for Democrats — none of these candidates can beat Trump

The first Democratic debates proved one thing: We still don’t have a candidate who can beat Donald Trump....Trump must have enjoyed every moment and every answer, because he now knows he’s looking at a bunch of potential rivals who are still not ready for prime time.

Willie Brown and other political pundits, like their sports counterparts, are experts, but they're calling the Super Bowl winner before the regular season has even started.

An Old Guy Speaks His Mind Again

Willie Brown with Beach Blanket Babylon Producer
Jo Schuman Silver and scholarship judge Tracy
Chapman. June 3, 2019. (Chron photo)

California Democratic elder Willie Brown, 85, is no fan of President Trump. But he's also not afraid to speak up when he thinks the President is doing something right or when the Democrats are making a mistake.

In a recent interview President Trump was criticized for saying that he would "listen" to Russia, China, or other foreign sources if they said they had damaging information on an opponent.

Willie Brown said he would do the same.

No politician will admit it publicly, but I’d bet they would all say “yes” to a chance to look at any dirt dug up on their opponent from any source, foreign or domestic. I know I would have been tempted. At the very least, they’re going to have someone from outside the campaign, a hired gun, look at it so there are no fingerprints leading back to them.

Then, once they see what they have, they’re going to decide whether to call in the FBI — after leaking the dirt to the media, of course, assuming it’s true.

The curiosity of what the “dirt” may be is just too great a temptation.

Let’s be honest: If someone came to you with a hot inside stock tip, you might not act on it. But you would listen.

You would not say, ‘Hold on, I’ve got to call the Securities and Exchange Commission.”

And that is what Trump was saying.

Open Question

April 18: Current Mayor London Breed and former
Mayor Willie Brown at the ceremony remembering
the 1906 earthquake and fire. (MSN)

Democratic éminence grise Willie Brown: Impeachment would be suicide for Democrats.

Impeachment is a suicide mission that also puts the party on the defensive for supposedly doing an end run around the electoral process.

To be sure, ex-Assembly Speaker and former SF Mayor Brown, 85, is no fan of President Trump:

I say, plow on. Call for hearings. Go over every page, line by line, if for no other reason than to make everyone aware of every questionable act committed by President Trump and his entourage....

I’m betting Trump could still win re-election if the economy holds up, but I’m also betting Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats will hold the House and maybe, just maybe, the Democrats can flip the Senate.

Then, and only then, would Democrats be in position to take corrective action against Trump’s threat to our democracy.

Speaking of Nancy Pelosi, 79, she also urges House Democrats to go slow on impeachment:

Pelosi told Democrats on the conference call that it is important for the House to gather more facts before launching any impeachment effort. She also noted that at least a third of House Democrats are on committees that will be investigating the president.

Whether the young lions and lionesses of the Party will follow the advice of their elders is an open question.