The Cascadia Subduction Zone

(Graphic from oregon.gov)

The San Andreas fault, which is responsible for the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, is less destructive than the Cascadia Subduction zone. The Cascadia has triggered most of the San Andreas' earthquakes in the past 3,000 years (but not in 1906), which will make a future Cascadia/San Andreas combined quake the most destructive natural disaster in American history by far.

A megaquake in the Pacific Northwest could trigger a large earthquake along California’s San Andreas Fault, creating an unprecedented catastrophe up and down the Pacific Coast, a new study has found.

The study suggests that the fearsome Cascadia subduction zone, a fault line running offshore from Northern California to British Columbia that is capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 9 or higher, has triggered large quakes in San Francisco and elsewhere along the northern part of the San Andreas Fault. In some cases, it’s possible that quakes on the San Andreas followed the first quake within minutes or hours, according to the study, which was published Sept. 29.

For example, researchers found evidence that the last magnitude 9 earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone — in 1700 and so large that it caused a tsunami in Japan — also produced a major earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. That part of the fault extends from the Mendocino Junction offshore of Humboldt County, where it meets the Cascadia, to Hollister (San Benito County). That earthquake could have been as large as the magnitude 7.9 earthquake in 1906 San Francisco, said Jason Patton, a co-author of the study and engineering geologist at the California Department of Conservation.

According to lead author Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University

We could expect that an earthquake on one of the faults alone would draw down the resources of the whole country to respond to it,” Goldfinger said. “And if they both went off together, then you’ve got potentially San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and Vancouver all in an emergency situation in a compressed timeframe.”

Mr. Goldfinger said that if he heard that the Cascadia Subduction zone went off, he would immediately leave his home in Palo Alto and head east. This is one expert's advice that we intend to follow.

Sense of Foreboding

(Image from UC-Berkeley)

During the summer of 1989 the Bay Area experienced a swarm of small earthquakes that caused little damage. On October 17th the 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake struck and, according to Wikipedia, resulted in 63 deaths, 3,757 injuries, and about $6 billion of damage.

Although I've experienced many earthquakes in my 50 years living here, the 1989 experience has taught me to stop what I'm doing after a jolt to see if there's a bigger one coming. Fortunately that didn't happen after a series of shocks along the Hayward fault on Thursday.

It's been 158 years since the Hayward fault's last major temblor, a 6.8, and it's perhaps more "overdue" than the San Andreas fault that produced the great 1906 and 1989 quakes.

The Bay Area has escaped the natural disasters that have occurred in other parts of the State, but I am feeling a sense of foreboding based on nothing more than wondering how long both major faults will continue to be quiet. May we keep our go bags ready and our gas tanks full.

Tsunami Warning Cancelled

At 10:44 this morning three iPhones in our house blared an emergency warning. A 7.0 earthquake had occurred in the waters off Humboldt County, over 260 miles north of San Francisco. The earthquake was just close enough--and Foster City just close enough to the Bay--that we could not disregard the dangers of a tsunami.

And so it was that our eyes were glued to the TV on the off chance that an evacuation would be announced. To our relief the tsunami warning was canceled within the hour:

Temblor CEO and Stanford Geophysics lecturer Ross Stein gave ABC7 News an explanation for the change. He said the earthquake initially appeared to be a 6.0-magnitude shallow earthquake, the kind that involves “a lot of vertical motion of the seafloor, which tends to produce more tsunamis.”

It didn’t take long, however, for scientists to realize it was a much larger 7.0-magnitude earthquake and a different type of earthquake that is unlikely to produce a large tsunami, he said.

It was “a very typical, garden-variety event on this northern extension of the San Andreas Fault, which we call the Mendocino Fault Zone. In that respect it doesn’t move the sea floor up and down very much,” said Stein.

Of course, we were relieved that there was no tsunami. It would have drastically inconvenienced our Christmas shopping activities!

But seriously...this was another demonstration of the inadequacy of our evacuation plans. We did have "go" bags at the ready, every car had at least half a tank, and we did have an idea where to seek temporary shelter. However, what to take and what to leave behind had not been finalized, I had not digitized and stored key documents in the cloud, nor had we updated our wills since 2002 (we do have draft revisions that have not been executed).

At least we know what our top New Year resolutions will be.

Literally Unsettled Science

"What caused an odd cascade of vibrations to ripple across the globe for nine days?" [bold added]

Using classified seafloor maps from the Danish military, a global network of seismic sensors used to detect earthquakes, drone video of debris washed high up on a remote rock face in eastern Greenland and other evidence, researchers finally pieced together the strange sequence of events.

It started when seismic sensors at monitoring stations around the world detected a signal in September 2023 that looked nothing like the squiggles made by earthquakes. This signal oscillated at 90-second intervals and continued for days. Most seismic events weaken quickly...

[Geologic scientist Kristian] Svennevig assembled an earth-science detective squad of 68 experts who, with seismic recordings, satellite images, field measurements, drone video and computer simulations, reconstructed what happened. The evidence revealed that 33 million cubic yards of rock and ice—the volume of 10,000 Olympic-size swimming pools—had plunged into the Dickson Fjord in eastern Greenland, triggering a tsunami.

The massive wave crested at 650 feet above the water’s surface, throwing debris onto a nearby rock face. It settled down to 25 feet, but over the next nine days, it sloshed from one side of the fjord to the other, striking the sides with enough force to move the walls, creating the seismic signal that propagated around the planet, Svennevig said.

The landslide was caused by a melting glacier below the mountaintop, according to the study, and Svennevig said scientists are reconsidering the kinds of natural disasters that are now possible in a warming Arctic environment.

Before and after photos of the landslide site. Søren Rysgaard; Danish Army/Joint Arctic Command

The continental crust ranges between 22 and 40 miles, and the oceanic crust from 4 to 6 miles. The troposphere, where life resides, is 7 miles above the crust, and the stratosphere is 31 miles above. Despite the advances in environmental science, it took a year to determine that the 9 days of powerful vibrations were caused by a landslide in Greenland. Our knowledge of the 50 miles of crust and atmosphere is demonstrably incomplete. Just imagine how much we don't know about our home planet, which has a diameter of nearly 8,000 miles.

Mickey Mouse Plan

We continue to pay for an old-fashioned telephone landline despite its escalating cost (currently $90 per month). From 2010:

[Our Mickey Mouse telephone] survives because it's our one phone that can operate if the power goes off say, during an earthquake. As long as our landline has tone, we can dial out ("dial" for once may be interpreted literally).

Suffering from escalating maintenance costs on copper-wire technology and from a shrinking customer base, AT&T wants to exit the landline business: [bold added]

A proposal by telecommunications giant AT&T to withdraw landline service from most of the Bay Area has sparked widespread fear among residents, many of whom live where cell service is spotty, power outages are frequent and losing connectivity is “very scary.”

...Thanks to its earlier monopoly status and state law requiring voice communications for all who want them, AT&T is for large areas of California the “carrier of last resort” — the utility required to provide phone service to anyone wanting it in its service area. In its proposal to the utilities commission to escape that obligation, the company said it is seeking to stop landline service only in areas “where there is a demonstrated voice alternative.”

Nearly all those commenting said they opposed the plan, citing a host of concerns, from medical crises to loss of communications during earthquakes, fires, floods and storms because cell phone infrastructure is damaged or power outages cut off internet service.

We are not as exposed to power outages and cellphone interruptions as residents who live in the mountains, but earthquake risk is enough to make us landline subscribers. We plan to keep Mickey Mouse useful as long as possible.

Now It’s Insurance’s Turn

Ever since we became homeowners over 40 years ago we've bought earthquake insurance. Lately the premium on our 4BR house has approached $3,000, and that's with a deductible of around $200,000. In all those years we've never made a claim.

The earthquake premium is 50% higher than a regular homeowners policy, and one would think that insurance companies would be happy to write the business. One would be wrong.

Last month we received notice (right) that our provider won't renew the earthquake policy, so we'll have to start looking.

We should count ourselves lucky that we do have homeowners coverage through July, 2024. Insurance giants Allstate and State Farm have stopped taking new customers.

It was not immediately clear what prompted Allstate’s pullback on new policies. But State Farm, the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in California, made waves in late May by announcing it would stop issuing new homeowner policies in the state due to inflation, wildfires and rising reinsurance costs.

The WSJ blames California regulators for the dwindling number of suppliers:

The nation’s top property and casualty insurer on Friday said it won’t accept new applications for homeowners insurance, citing “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market.”

In other words, State Farm can’t accurately price risk and increase its rates to cover ballooning liabilities. Other property and casualty insurers, including AIG and Chubb, have also been shrinking their California footprint after years of catastrophic wildfires, which are becoming more common owing to drought and decades of poor forest management.

Wildfires in 2017 and 2018 wiped out two times the underwriting profits that insurers had accrued over the prior 26 years. Yet state Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara won’t let insurers raise premiums to account for increasing wildfire risks.

Only California can make insurance companies sympathetic.

Good at Describing How Terrible We're Feeling

Used to help kids express their feelings about disasters in Asia,
this worksheet can be adapted for use by adult Californians.

Saturday's post concerned the series of natural disasters that struck California in the 1860's. But we shouldn't overlook reporter Carl Nolte's remark on how we use the language to make today's problems seem historically important: [bold added]

Everything is dramatic. Even the weather comes with a Hollywood touch: Forecasters now use words like atmospheric rivers, bomb cyclones and king tides, all recently coined terms to describe conditions that have happened for thousands of years. You know how it is. A new story every night.

Meanwhile, just before our own big sets of rain and wind, an immense snowstorm swept the East. Mountains of snow and ice — 52 inches of snow in Buffalo. Thirty-seven people died in Erie County. Now that is real weather.

Despite its problems in the 19th century California overcame them and grew. It was the land of opportunity, and the population swelled to 40 million. Now people are leaving, and that's before any truly horrible calamity.

When the 100-year floods and the 9.0 earthquakes eventually come, will we have the strength of character to recover? That's unclear, but I'm sure we'll invent words that will perfectly describe how terrible we're feeling.

Bottoming Temperature ==> Bottoming Fortunes?

A cold snap is upon us:

a ridge of high pressure digs in further and gives way to a cold weather outbreak. The region can expect some of the coldest air of the winter season tonight and over the next couple of nights, with temperatures dropping into the 30s across large swaths of Bay Area.

Though much chillier than this Hawaiian-born immigrant is accustomed to, the freezing temperatures have coincided with heavy snowfall in the Sierras, signalling a possible end to the drought.

This frigid air mass comes to the Bay Area from the Arctic Circle and has quickly made itself at home as it spins over Nevada’s Great Basin. The Sierra’s northern, central and southern snowpacks are all currently running over 195% of normal levels.

The past several years have been pretty rough for the region. The dismal economy, wildfires, the coronavirus, inflation, the population exodus, not to mention crime and homelessness, have afflicted the once-paradisiacal Bay Area.

Maybe the cold, accompanied by heavy snow, is a sign that we've bottomed out.

On the Edge

The 3.1 aftershock was reported 5 minutes later.

The preoccupations of the day were set aside on 11:42 a.m. when the house rocked briefly but noticeably. Nothing fell, and the TV stayed on.

The initial jolt is usually the worst, followed by one or two aftershocks, but occasionally the first quake is a precursor to a bigger one. Nerves were calmed when a smaller 3.1 aftershock followed the 5.1 quake five minutes later, and all was quiet thereafter.

The San Jose earthquake (by the way, the Earthquakes are San Jose's soccer team) was produced by the Calaveras fault in the East Bay. Scientists tell us that there's less than a 1% probability of a bigger quake in the coming week.

For about 15 minutes just before noon there was a chance that our lives would be completely upended. The odds were high that the worst wouldn't happen, but the possibility existed.

Over the past several years I have had friends and relatives whose priorities changed instantaneously for health reasons. They were unprepared for such disruption, and today's earthquake reminded us that disruption can come from a direction that's not foremost in our mind.

California on the Precipice

Lake Tahoe is shrinking (Chron photo)

We take a break from looking at our incredibly shrinking stock portfolio to worrying about the apocalyptic summer in store for Californians: [bold added]

This year’s extraordinarily dry, warm weather, which is expected to continue in the coming months, is stoking fears of a multitude of problems: increasing water restrictions, extreme heat, blackouts, wildfire and smoke — potentially all of the above in one vicious swoop...

Already in California, climate volatility, as palpable as it’s been, has joined the list of reasons people cite for wanting to move away, after soaring home prices, high taxes and traffic. The state’s population, which had grown for decades, dropped in each of the past two years.

“We have people say they’re concerned about drought, they’re concerned about wildfire,” said Scott Fuller, founder of LeavingTheBayArea.com, a 7-year-old real estate company that helps people relocate. “We’ve had clients say this is literally the final straw.”

And we haven't even mentioned the danger that most concerned us during the last century: a major earthquake.

Should the latter happen, that really will be the last straw for millions of soon-to-be ex-Californians. Will the last one out the door please close the lights, if they're not out already?

Diablo Canyon: the Ground is Shifting

Diablo Canyon (Chron photo)

In California environmentalists won the debate over nuclear power long ago. New construction was halted, and existing plants were decommissioned. The last nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon, is scheduled to be closed in 2025.

Second thoughts have arisen about the shuttering of Diablo Canyon. The belief in the "existential threat" of global warming has become widespread, and eliminating 9.6% of California's energy production, especially since nuclear power is carbon-free, seems foolish.

The danger from earthquakes has not diminished, but the relative importance of carbon-free generation has increased, especially given California's ambitious targets for zero-carbon electricity production.

Stanford and MIT researchers have proposed two additional reasons why Diablo Canyon should remain open, reasons that did not seem important in 2018 when the plant was ordered to be closed. [bold added]

Intriguingly, the study suggests adding a desalination plant to the site to address water shortages in our drought-prone state. A desalination plant powered by Diablo Canyon could produce as much fresh water as the controversial project to build a tunnel under the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, the study says.

Diablo’s nuclear power also could be used to produce more of the hydrogen-based, zero-carbon fuels the state will need to transition to carbon neutrality. Stanford and MIT found that hydrogen produced by Diablo could cost up to 50% less than hydrogen produced via solar and wind power, and would require much less land...

Such possibilities weren’t on the table when the 2025 closure was approved back in 2018. Other realities have changed as well. Drought conditions and water shortages have increased, blackouts have become more common, and California and the world have learned more about the value of reliable nuclear energy in stabilizing the electric grid during the shift to renewables.

Also significant is the fact that present and former members of Democratic Administrations do not support the shutdown.

Leading federal officials, including current Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and her predecessors (notably the Nobel Prize-winning Stanford physicist Steven Chu) are pushing to keep the plant open.

Progressives have dominated coastal politics, but their visible failures in crime, education, and homelessness and housing have tarnished their aura of invincibility. Now some Democrats are pushing back against unbending anti-nuclear policies. I can feel the ground shifting.

Lucky Come Hawaii

It's a good time to be in Hawaii, which sounds inane because as my Mainland friends say, it's always a good time to be in Hawaii. But look what's happening back in Northern California.

Lava Fire at Weed, CA, 10 mi. from Mr. Shasta (Chron)

California's burning again. Lava Fire explodes to more than 13,000 acres

The Lava Fire, ravaging through steep and rugged terrain near Mount Shasta and Lake Shastina in Siskiyou County, tripled in size over the last 12 hours and was burning across 13,300 acres as of Tuesday morning.

Wind gusts as high as 50 mph contributed to the wildfire’s spread Monday to the east and southeast toward Mount Shasta, said Michelle Carbonaro, spokesperson for the inter-agency team managing the fire.

Lake Shastina is 300 miles from the Peninsula, but the high winds will not only make the fire difficult to control but will degrade the air quality throughout the region. Those of us with respiratory problems will have to stay indoors and run the filters.

Assault and robbery reached their lows in August
and October, respectively, and are nearly back
to their 2019 levels. (Chronicle graph)

Violent crime is coming back: San Francisco crime is starting to look more like it did before the pandemic

The violent crimes we analyzed, robbery and assault, declined for the first six months or so of the pandemic, until COVID-19 cases began surging nationwide in late October. Both robberies and assaults spiked through late February, though robberies remained below 2019 levels for every month except February 2021, when they reached 11% above where they were pre-pandemic.

As of May 2021, both types of violent crime are hovering slightly below pre-pandemic levels, but above their pandemic-era lows.

Going backwards (2019 Chronicle pic)

Burglaries may be down overall, but not for tourists. Car break-ins are up as tourism returns to San Francisco [bold added]

The reopening of San Francisco’s restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues and the gradual return of visitors to the city has swiftly collided with a sharp rise in smash-and-grab thefts from cars in tourist-heavy parts of the city, according to city data.

It's only property, declare the people who run the City and State governments, as they divert funds from the police to social services. Florida smash-and-grab victim Kinga Sojka advises:

"Just don’t take valuable stuff with you. Take as little as possible and nothing of big value — no laptops, no jewelry — don’t bring it at all and if you do bring it, even a passport or car keys, carry it with you. Don’t leave it in your car.”

And don't forget about the Hayward and San Andreas faults. The good news: the quake was only 3.9 on the Richter scale. The bad news: the epicenter was 20 miles from Foster City. 3.9 quake felt in the Bay Area, epicenter near San Leandro

Lucky I come Hawaii.

God: "How Many Warnings Do I Have to Send You?"

Today's fishwrap [the late great Herb Caen's phrase--and he worked for them] headline is about the more-than-300 wildfires burning in our once-paradisiacal State (alas, Paradise was destroyed two years ago).

In the most environmentally-conscious state of the Union--home to the Sierra Club founded by the racist John Muir--the air quality is now the worst in the world: [bold added]

Wildfire smoke cast hazy red skies over the Bay Area on Wednesday, creating a seriously unhealthy atmosphere and adding to the region’s pandemic-heightened anxiety. Ash fell over many counties. Kids locked out of school remained shuttered indoors. Families evacuated homes.

Atmospheric testing revealed Northern California’s air quality to be the worst in the world.

Smoke from multiple fires polluted the air, sparking a renewed concern for residents with respiratory issues, including those suffering from COVID.

Here in Foster City the good news is that the out-of-control fires in San Mateo County are 40 miles distant, on the other side of the Santa Cruz Mountains. The bad news is that, if people in our County are suffering, we all suffer at least indirectly.

While San Mateo County's crime and homelessness problems aren't as bad as San Francisco's, we are afflicted plenty with COVID-19, unemployment, school and business closures, the recent heat wave, and power failures. And now, lightning, the wildfires, and polluted air.

Quote of the Day: “At this point, I’m waiting for the plague of locusts to come.”

The fight against the coronavirus sent their businesses outside.

Then swirling ash and acrid smoke from wildfires kept their customers indoors.

Restaurateurs, fitness trainers and other business owners across the Bay Area wondered where they were supposed to serve people, as one crisis made indoor service illegal and another made the outdoors untenable.

Sweltering conditions prevailed Wednesday as what the National Weather Service called the worst extended heat wave since 1913 blasted the region. Lightning-sparked blazes lit up the area, combining into fire complexes that sent pillars of smoke billowing into the skies, choking the air.

“At this point, I’m waiting for the plague of locusts to come,” said Wendy Klein, who started Nandi Yoga in 2008 in San Mateo.

I would join the caravans leaving the area and the State permanently if I had any brains or if I was from a more religious upbringing that believed that God was trying to tell me something.

What next? The Big One? 2020 has over four months to go....

The COVID-19 San Francisco Earthquake of 2020

Despite widespread lease defaults by apartment tenants, retail stores, and restaurants, the entire real estate market has not collapsed: [bold added]

Investors are flocking to America’s mega landlords, drawn by signs the companies that emerged from last decade’s foreclosure crisis owning huge pools of rental houses are weathering the economic shutdown far better than feared. Many also expect that the coronavirus pandemic will make suburban single-family homes both more desirable and more difficult to buy for even the relatively well-heeled...

Rental executives say some recent move-ins chose to rent instead of buy given the economic uncertainty. Others have leased houses to get out of apartment buildings, given the contamination risks associated with close living.

There's been anecdotal evidence of fed-up San Franciscans leaving the City for open spaces, and we expect that future tax and payroll data will confirm this suspicion.

A month ago we wrote:

Post-war Levittown, PA (photo: J Reps)

Here is a pretty safe prediction about attitudinal change and consequential action: the urban model is passé. Mass transit is dangerous. The risks of city living are too high for children. The flight to the suburbs and rural areas will accelerate because living there is not only safer but cheaper.

The suburbs boomed after World War II changed the country. COVID-19 is likely to have the same effect.

At the time we hadn't mentioned commercial real estate, but a similar decline appears inevitable. Not only are weaker tenants defaulting, but financially stable companies are realizing that working from home requires much less office space. (Headline: Twitter announces work from home policy will continue indefinitely.)

The great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 destroyed real estate values. The coronavirus earthquake of 2020 will have a like effect, though few are aware that it's happening.

Answers Not Forthcoming

Kamala Harris, looking thoughtful (Chron photo)

An executive I used to work for always said that asking the right question is the most important step in working a project. I knew he was right, but I resented him nonetheless.

While he asked the questions, my job was to figure out the answers, which often involved a large amount of work. He was rarely helpful in helping me obtain them. Did I mention that he went to Harvard Business School?

I hadn't thought about him for 20 years, that is, until I read about California Senator Kamala Harris' questions to FEMA's Peter Gaynor:: [bold added]

Harris wanted to know how FEMA would respond if the new virus remained a major public health threat when another potential emergency, including a California wildfire or earthquake, arises.

She is keenly aware that major fires often force people into packed evacuation shelters, which would currently conflict with the government’s efforts to encourage social distancing and prevent people from gathering large groups.

“So I asked him, what is the plan? Is there a formal policy to address this issue?” Harris told The Chronicle. “And he basically said ‘We’re learning as we go’ and ‘This has never happened before.’”

What should we do if an earthquake hits in the midst of a coronavirus lockdown? After saying "we’re screwed", my answer would have been "you're on your own and don't count on the government to save you."

I considered working for the public sector at one time but didn't think there was a good fit. Was I right?

Open Question

April 18: Current Mayor London Breed and former
Mayor Willie Brown at the ceremony remembering
the 1906 earthquake and fire. (MSN)

Democratic éminence grise Willie Brown: Impeachment would be suicide for Democrats.

Impeachment is a suicide mission that also puts the party on the defensive for supposedly doing an end run around the electoral process.

To be sure, ex-Assembly Speaker and former SF Mayor Brown, 85, is no fan of President Trump:

I say, plow on. Call for hearings. Go over every page, line by line, if for no other reason than to make everyone aware of every questionable act committed by President Trump and his entourage....

I’m betting Trump could still win re-election if the economy holds up, but I’m also betting Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats will hold the House and maybe, just maybe, the Democrats can flip the Senate.

Then, and only then, would Democrats be in position to take corrective action against Trump’s threat to our democracy.

Speaking of Nancy Pelosi, 79, she also urges House Democrats to go slow on impeachment:

Pelosi told Democrats on the conference call that it is important for the House to gather more facts before launching any impeachment effort. She also noted that at least a third of House Democrats are on committees that will be investigating the president.

Whether the young lions and lionesses of the Party will follow the advice of their elders is an open question.

Joking, I Hope

Probably won't survive
a 7.0, though.

The repair work had been completed in September, but the cabinets still were not installed.

Our household has become increasingly worried (paranoid?) about earthquakes that could topple heavy furniture.

I ordered safety straps from Amazon. I couldn't trust plastic anchors to hold to hollow walls, meaning I had to locate the wooden studs.

Stud finders have advanced amazingly since I last bought one 40 years ago. Back in the '70's they were little more than compasses, that is, magnets in search of beams' metal nails instead of the North Pole.

Now they use radar and sensor technology to read changes in density. Costing about $30, the stud finder was successful about 80% of the time; my hit rate got better with experience.

Straps finally in place, the cabinets were set up over the Thanksgiving weekend.

The member of the household in charge of these things said that maybe they would be better in another corner. She was joking, I hope.

Peak Real Estate?

San Francisco Real Estate Item 1:
Booming SF hits new high for office rent, beating dot-com record

Rents for new offices in the city’s central business district reached $81.25 per square foot in the third quarter, according to brokerage Cushman & Wakefield. The previous record of $80.16 per square foot was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2000, as the previous tech boom was ending.

After the 2000 dot-com crash resulted in unplanned vacancies, and with a raft of new construction coming online, prime ("Class A") SF office space in 2001 could be had for about half today's rate.

San Francisco Real Estate Item 2:
New report finds overlooked earthquake vulnerabilities in some SF high-rises

Between 50 and 65 San Francisco high-rises used specific types of steel welds that were later found to fracture during the 1994 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles.

I'm always in favor of more knowledge, but in this case I'm grateful that I didn't know that for 20 years I was working in a highrise that was in any danger--it survived the 1989 Loma Prieta quake just fine.

With office rents at all-time highs, with pending fixes that are going to cost beaucoup bucks, and with the Bay Area experiencing a mass exodus, it sure feels like we've reached peak real estate in this cycle.

So Bad in Their Execution

Ribbon cutters included SF supervisor Jane Kim, Nancy
Pelosi, and Mayor London Breed (3rd from right).

Success has a thousand fathers and mothers. August 10:
Thousands jam new Transbay Transit Center for its open house

Thousands of visitors jammed the new Transbay Transit Center for its grand opening party Saturday...Lines stretched the length of the Grand Hall as people tried to get into the $2.2 billion multistory transportation hub.

But that was then.

This is now. September 28:
Salesforce Transit Center to remain closed after crack in second beam discovered

The $2.2 billion Salesforce Transit Center is expected to remain closed at least through the end of next week after inspectors found a second cracked steel beam beneath the center’s rooftop park, officials said Wednesday.

Flashback to 2015, after spending $6 billion:
Plague of problems puts Bay Bridge seismic safety in question

Flashback to 2009: SF Officials Knew About Sinking Millennium Tower

For a City that likes to lecture the rest of us against pushing Nature too far, it's astonishing that it: 1) proceeds with multi-billion-dollar construction projects on top of landfill next to major earthquake faults, and 2) is so bad in their execution.

Credit Where It's Due

The 100-year-old seawall enabled the construction of modern San Francisco (Port of SF image)

(Chronicle / Port of SF image)

In November San Francisco voters will decide whether to pay $425 million for "the engineering, design and construction of the first round of improvements to the 3-mile-long" Embarcadero seawall.

There are two major problems, one short-term and one long-term, with the seawall: [bold added]

A major earthquake could make the aging barrier of rocks and concrete lurch out into the bay while the soils behind it turn to soggy mush. But the estimated cost of needed seismic repairs already is at least $2 billion. Adapting it to prepare for 5 feet or more of sea-level rise could double the price tag.

It's not often that we say this, but two cheers for the City: 1) San Francisco will be addressing a deferred-maintenance problem before, it is hoped, the Big One causes office towers to tumble into the Bay; 2) San Francisco will spend $billions on "unseen infrastructure"--if you can't see it or touch it, it often doesn't get done.

We're not giving three cheers because, after all, Measure A hasn't passed yet. Also, the final project costs will undoubtedly exceed the expected $2 billion and even the maximum estimated $5 billion. Nevertheless, credit where it's due.