California: The Government We Deserve

Do you know the way to (Lake) San Jose? (Chron photo)

If we have about a quarter of an inch of rain by July, it will be California's wettest year. [bold added]

According to Golden Gate Weather Services, this year’s rainy season, going back to July, has seen just 0.27 inches less than the record-setting 28.30 inches of rain that had fallen — on average across the state — at this point in the soggy 1968-69 rain year.

Meanwhile, precipitation in the northern Sierra, which is crucial to the state’s fickle water supply, is tracking ahead of any previous year. As of Thursday, an average 77.8 inches of precipitation had fallen between Mount Shasta and Lake Tahoe since Oct. 1 — about 212 percent of average for the period, according to the state Department of Water Resources.

The good water news may well continue:

Federal forecasters said Thursday that the chances of an El Niño developing by fall are on the rise — now between 50 and 55 percent —an outlook that could skew the odds in favor of yet another wet winter.

Oroville spillway: we don't even maintain
the dams we do have (Chron photo)

The drought is over, but it would have been nice if California had built dams or reservoirs to store all this excess water for a not-rainy day.

Now, California is experiencing near-record rain and snowfall. Had the state simply completed its half-century-old water master plan, dozens of new reservoirs would now be storing the runoff, ensuring that the state could be drought-proof for years.

Instead, more than 20 million acre-feet of precious water have already been released to the sea. There is nowhere to put it, given that California has not built a major reservoir in nearly 40 years....

Governors who cannot build a reservoir have little business fantasizing about 200-mph super trains.

When California experiences another water shortage in 3, 5, or 10 years officials will blame carbon emissions that cause climate change that cause the drought. And Californians will accept the fines for watering lawns and washing cars, because the water shortage will be all our fault.

We get the government we deserve.

No Safe Spaces for the Wealthy and Powerful

Steve Kerr and Andre Iguodala (SI Photo)

Golden State Warriors veteran Andre Iguodala was fined $10,000 for the following comment: [bold added]

Asked in Minnesota if he had known before the game whether he would rest Saturday against San Antonio, Iguodala said, “Nope, no clue. I do what master say.”

To longtime followers of the Warriors Andre Iguodala clearly was not speaking maliciously; by all reports coach Steve Kerr has a great relationship with the players, and Mr. Iguodala was making a lighthearted reference to the historical white-black power relationship. (By the way, Steve Kerr makes $5 million a year, while Andre Iguodala's salary for the current season is $11 million.)

In the modern era everything one says can be put under a microscope (or be captured by a super-sensitive listening device). Close friends of different racial, religious, etc. groups can make joshing comments to each other that, taken out of context, sound inflammatory to those who become outraged at the drop of a bad-sounding syllable.

Your humble blogger has been on the giving and receiving end of these interactions in high school and college with people who are still friends; thank goodness he went to school then, for he and they would be suspended today.

Steve Kerr's reaction:

“I wasn’t the slightest bit offended. He’s got a very cryptic sense of humor. The only thing I would say is there’s certain humorous things you should say in the sanctity of the locker room and certain humorous things you might want to keep from the media. That was one of them, and he knows it.”

People who are wealthy and powerful deserve safe spaces, too.

Reporting is Necessary

From 2013: $15 beer in a Waikiki bar.

From the Sunday Chronicle: Hawaii: The next craft beer paradise?

With "fake news" widespread, I'll have to head back to the Islands soon to check out this information first hand.

Having been over-exposed to the fruit from a two-summers stint in the now-defunct Dole Cannery, I'll skip the Pineapple Mana Wheat beer, however.

A Change in Climate

The Reverend Anna B. Lange-Soto, who is the Vicar of the Episcopal Church's Spanish-speaking congregation on the Peninsula, spoke to us for over an hour. Her focus was about recent difficulties her congregation is facing with stepped-up immigration enforcement.

Mother Anna's comments
People felt safer under President Obama, who deported criminals but for the most part left other undocumented immigrants alone.

President Trump says that deporting criminals is the top priority but ICE has behaved as if everyone is fair game.

25% of Latinos in the area are undocumented.

How to support undocumented immigrants:

Use churches as a sanctuary; ICE so far has not raided church property.

"Rapid response": show up when ICE is conducting a raid. Being present as a witness and/or recording their actions will influence agents' behavior.

Accompany people to court hearings. A show of support from the community may affect the outcome.

Demonstrate at the Richmond ICE detention facility on the first Saturday of every month.

Advocate changes to immigration law through elected representatives.

Pray!

Blogger's comment:
As individuals we can subscribe to any of Mother Anna's recommendations, but if we are acting under the auspices of the church, we must consider the differing political views of all members as well as the constraints under which religious organizations operate. I suspect that our assistance will end up short of advocacy but long on basic human needs such as food, shelter, education, and medical care.

Binders Full of Tax Instructions

I'm a long-time subscriber to tax professionals' (don't try this at home!) software, and the pages in the manuals have ratcheted up every year.

The height of the stack has now reached six inches; the publisher has advised that this is the last year that it will send out a printed copy.

Financial consultants tell us that people spend less if they had to pay cash for everything.

Betcha we'd have a lot fewer regulations, rulings, and even laws if we had to look them up on paper. Just saying...

Above My Pay Grade

Like the Mona Lisa, 2-year-old Axel gazes to the left,

his thoughts a mystery.

This week we served dinner to two families at Home and Hope, the network of 30 Peninsula churches and synagogues that provide temporary shelter to people who have been displaced for reasons such as job loss, family breakup, and large rent increases.

I spoke to the Director about the drop-off in applications---usually the organization houses four families at a time, and there had been a long waiting list to get into the program. She said that, for the first time in memory, there is no one on the waiting list.

We have seen "good" declines before--a booming economy enables some homeless to find jobs and housing---but that doesn't seem broadly true based on personal observations. Some potential applicants may have finally given up on making ends meet---I mentioned visiting new two-bedroom apartments that are going for $4,600 per month---and have departed the Peninsula for economic reasons.

But the likeliest reason is that the step-up in immigration enforcement has caused the fearful to leave the area or remain in the shadows. In the circles that I frequent ICE is a dirty word, but if there's less homelessness on the Peninsula, is that so bad?

Potential clients may have moved to other regions, such as Central California, where it's much cheaper to provide housing, medical, and education services. The State of California may protest, but it could be saving money because of the movement of population. That question and its possible answers are above my pay grade, and for the nonce I will confine myself to making dinner, being an overnight monitor, and making light conversation.

Dihydrogen Monoxide -- the Safest Chemical

(WSJ graphic)

In further confirmation that in perception, if not in actual fact, sugar is the new tobacco (see yesterday's post),

"Americans now officially drink more bottled water than soda".

Bottled-water consumption in the U.S. reached 39.3 gallons per capita last year, while carbonated soft drinks slipped to 38.5 gallons, according to industry tracker Beverage Marketing Corp.

The eight U.S. cities that impose a soda tax (four---Albany, Berkeley, Oakland, and San Francisco---are in the Bay Area) encompass less than 10% of the population, so it's doubtful that sin taxes played a major role in shifting consumption toward bottled water.

Rather, consumers are doing it on their own "amid concerns about the health effects of sugary drinks and the safety of public-water supplies."

I've reduced soda consumption to 2-3 bottles a month---the real stuff, because diet-soda chemicals are more harmful than sugar---and drink water more often from the tap than from bottles. Local water quality should be excellent after recent repairs to the system, and the incremental cost of a cuppa H2O is a fraction of a cent.

Foster City obtains its water from the Hetch Hetchy reservoir through the SF PUC.

Hope You Noticed

(Geo-Mexico image)

Mexico has cancelled sugar-export permits to the United States:

The cancellations are the latest dispute of a years-long trade row between Mexico - the United States' top foreign supplier of sugar - and its neighbor at a time when cane refiners are struggling with prices and tight supplies, U.S. industry sources said.

When suppliers of a commodity reduce shipments to demonstrate how much the commodity will be missed, they had better be sure that the customers will be inconvenienced greatly, else its importance may be re-assessed.

Sugar, having been declared the new tobacco, is in a precarious position, and the Mexican government and sugar exporters are engaging in a risky maneuver.

In other news, thousands (millions?) of women skipped work to demonstrate their value to the economy in a Day Without Women.

Primary (Color) Safety

(Economist photo)

A traffic study confirms what most would suspect: cars painted yellow are safer than cars painted blue. A Singaporean taxi company

owns 4,175 yellow taxis and 12,525 blue ones. All are the same model (a Hyundai Sonata) and all undergo the same maintenance schedules.,,,

[Researchers] found that its blue taxis were involved in an average of 71.7 accidents per thousand vehicles per month while its yellow ones were involved in an average of 65.6. The yellow ones, in other words, were 9% less likely to have an accident.

The difference in accident records was even more pronounced at night.

What goes for cars probably applies to pedestrians as well. Having just bought a nice, but blue rain slicker, I'm now in the market for a yellow one...

Useful in an Emergency

Facebook information screen for Safety Check

I've been on Facebook since 2007 and have only 116 "friends" on the platform. I check the feed about 2-3 times a week and post about 2-3 times a year. Calling me an infrequent user would be an overstatement.

I'll stay enrolled, however, because of new apps like Safety Check.

"Facebook....is fast becoming one of the world’s most important emergency response institutions."

When a natural disaster or act of terrorism occurs, communications to the affected area are overwhelmed by concerned family and friends. Now loved ones can check in on Facebook and let everyone know that they're okay.

Safety Check begins with an algorithm that monitors an emergency newswire—a third-party program that aggregates information directly from police departments, weather services, and the like. Then another Safety Check algorithm begins looking for people in the area who are discussing the event on Facebook. If enough people are talking about the event, the system automatically sends those people messages inviting them to check in as safe—and asks them if they want to check the safety of other people as well.

Of course, having Safety Check is of little use if there's no Internet. Facebook is also working on drones that will "beam" the Internet to crisis areas.

Facebook drone (Photo from Wired)

while delivering internet access to chronically underserved areas is still the company’s primary aim, the idea that these drones might be useful in natural disasters never left the engineers’ minds.....the company has already discussed the possibility with telecom companies in island nations vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis.

Facebook, Google, and other tech giants have been criticized for the enormous amount of data that they have accumulated without users' knowledge or consent. However, it's also true that they provide enormous benefits that don't cost their members a dime. Use with caution.

Sunday....Sad!

Who's the good guy and who's the bad guy? (WSJ photo)

Narrative One: Trump Stole the Election
President Trump and his campaign colluded with the Russians to hack communications between Hillary Clinton, President Obama, and other Democrats. The release of this information harmed the Clinton campaign, enough to swing the election. Transcripts confirm that meetings and phone calls occurred between key Trump staff and Russian officials. In exchange for help from the Russians, President Trump will make concessions to Russia on a range of issues; he and his staff also will personally profit from their cooperation. The communications continue to this day.

Narrative Two: Obama is Worse than Nixon
After the Obama Administration unsuccessfully applied for a law-enforcement warrant in June, 2016, the FISA Court approved a surveillance warrant in October. The court made its decision because of false or exaggerated evidence, and the eventual scope of the surveillance over Trump personnel was far wider than the warrant allowed. Since October information on Donald Trump and his staff has been feloniously leaked to the media by Obama appointees, some of whom remain in government. The purpose is to derail President Trump's timetable and question the legitimacy of his election. President Obama used the power of his office to damage the candidate of the opposition party much more than Richard Nixon ever did.

There are many details and nuances that the above summaries don't include. However, unless there are other major explanations, the current or the past President is a "bad (or sick) guy!" (or maybe both are).

Because the narratives are so different, and their respective premises are alarming, it behooves us to get to the truth as soon as possible. Per the WSJ ("Washington Goes Nuts"):

Political collusion with a foreign power and the abuse of intelligence collection to smear an opponent threaten the integrity of democratic institutions. Let’s hope the intelligence committees rise above their putative party leaders and tell America what really happened.

On this Sunday, a very old declaration:

And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.

Wednesday's Headlines, Saturday's Fishwrap

Blanc, Pas De Rouge

Why many women prefer white wines: reds give them migraines(!). Andrew Waterhouse, professor of enology at UC-Davis, theorizes:

Caution: white wine increases the risk of skin cancer.

red wine “contains ten times as much phenolic substances as white wine.” Some of these compounds, which include pigments and tannins, are broken down in the liver to “a form that can inhibit superoxide in the bloodstream,” he said.

When the superoxide is inhibited, nitrogen oxide accumulates, which can cause blood vessels to widen, “a well known cause of headaches.” He couldn’t think of any reason, though, why they’d affect women more than men.

So, guys, when the evening doesn't end the way you wanted it to because she has a headache, it could have been the red wine that you plied her with.

The Creep That Takes Away Your Retirement Savings

(From Considering Stewardship)

Lifestyle creep: [bold added]

Once our incomes go up, we often incorporate new little treats into our routine and hardly notice. There’s that cold brew, and then there are more lunches out, and then there’s upgrading the smartphone, having your home cleaned more often, leasing a fancier car.

Cut out the little treats and stop trying to keep up with the Joneses (or Facebook friends). And try making regular deposits into an IRA or 401(k).

Remember, they're not asking you to cut back but, after you get a raise, go on spending what you've been spending.

Stop Me Before I Spend Again

U.S. Savings bonds were once a popular
payroll savings choice. Buying them was
patriotic because it helped with the national debt.

A 2015 study shows why many people like to save via paycheck withholdings and put them into accounts, like IRAs and 401(k)s, that restrict and/or penalize withdrawals:

If individuals have self-control problems, they may take up commitment contracts that restrict their spending.

The subjects of the experiment were given a choice of accounts in which to invest; the accounts had different withdrawal penalties and different rates of return. The desire for restrictions was surprisingly powerful: [bold added]

the amount of money they allocated increased with the level of restrictiveness. They even allocated money to the restricted account when it offered a lower interest rate than the unrestricted one.

Their finding is consistent with the behavior of taxpayers who like to get refunds, though it really means that the government has been getting an interest-free loan. They would much rather collect zero interest on their over-withholding than run the risk of having to make a painful payment on April 15th. Irrational, say the economists, but understandable to those of us in the real world (for the record I like to get refunds, too).