Happy Hallowe'en

When we're desperate....(history.com photo)

Before the goblins came to the door, we sorted the bags of candy into those we like (e.g., Milky Way and Kit Kat bars), those which trigger our nut allergy (e.g., Snickers and Peanut M&M's), and those which we'll consume when we're desperate for a sugar fix (e.g., Kandy Korn).

Foot traffic recently has numbered about 40 creatures of the night, but this Halloween fell on Friday; we greeted double the average. After 8 p.m. older trick-or-treaters continued to ring the doorbell, and by 9:30 they were done.

Our eyes gleamed, as they did over 50 years ago, at the sight of candy piled on the table. Some aspects of human nature will never change.

Happy Halloween! © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Like a Tsunami, But Much Slower

(Photo from Reuters via Time)

Growing up in the Islands, schoolchildren learn the basics about Hawaiian volcanoes, like how they aren't explosive like Vesuvius because Hawaiian lava has low viscosity, and how to distinguish between aa and pahoehoe rocks.

Lava flows are slow-moving, but they are one of the unstoppable forces of nature. Older generations (ahem) worried about Mauna Loa, which destroyed Ho`okena-mauka village in 1950. Recently it has been Kilauea's turn. Lava from Kilauea crater buried much of Kalapana in 1986 and now threatens Pahoa.

The Big Island is one of our favorite Neighbor Islands, but we're not tempted to retire there because of respiratory problems from the vog. As the residents of Pahoa are discovering, active volcanoes are fascinating to visit, but it's unwise to live next to them. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Hershiser 2.0

In 1988 the Los Angeles Dodgers were a baseball team with significant flaws. But they had Orel Hershiser, who had the greatest end-of-season run that a pitcher had ever had [bold added]:

Hershiser in 1988 led the league in wins (23), innings (267), shutouts (8) and complete games (15). He was third in ERA at 2.26. He finished the season with a record 59 consecutive scoreless innings pitched, breaking the mark of 58 held by former Dodger Don Drysdale. The streak began on August 30, when he pitched four scoreless innings to conclude a game and the record was broken when he pitched 10 shutout innings, on 116 pitches, in the final game of the season. He was selected to his second all-star game and was a unanimous selection for the National League Cy Young Award. He also won the Gold Glove Award for the best fielding pitcher in the National League.

In the 1988 National League Championship Series between Hershiser's Dodgers and the New York Mets, Hershiser not only started Games 1 and 3, but recorded the final out in Game 4 in relief for a save. He then pitched a shutout in Game 7 and was selected as the NLCS MVP. He then pitched a shutout in Game 2 of the World Series and allowed only two runs in a complete game in the clinching victory in Game 5, winning the World Series MVP Award.

Madison Bumgarner in 2012

In 2014 the San Francisco Giants also had so many weaknesses that they were underdogs in all three of their post-season series plus the wild-card game. But like the 1988 Dodgers the Giants had a pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, who was nearly unhittable. Though baseball is a team sport everyone, experts and casual fans alike, acknowledged that the Giants are World Series champions tonight because of Madison Bumgarner. He led the Giants to 7-1 and 5-0 victories in games 1 and 5, respectively, and pitched five (5) shutout innings to close out game 7. His performance ranks with the greatest in history:

Bumgarner’s final World Series line sparkles: 2-0 with a save and a 0.43 earned run average, with nine hits, one run, one walk and 17 strikeouts in 21 innings. Add in 15 scoreless innings in earlier victories, against Texas in 2010 and Detroit in 2012, and you get a 0.25 E.R.A. that ranks as the best in World Series history, minimum 25 innings.

When fans saw the 6'5" 21-year-old rookie southpaw pitch to victory in the 2010 World Series, they grew excited not only about that game but also about "Mad Bum's" potential. But very, very few people imagined this. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

The (Number of) I's Have It

(photo from freakingnews.com)

Barack Obama is a narcissist: this assertion is a widely held belief among his opponents.

However, by one measure of narcissism--his use of the first-person pronoun---the President is less self-absorbed than his predecessors:

Mark Liberman, a linguist at the University of Pennsylvania and the keeper of Language Log, a group language blog, began doing what none of [President Obama's critics] did. He counted. “I” is the most common word in English speech—but Mr Obama uses first-person singular pronouns less than all of his recent predecessors.

The utility of this method may be limited, because there's not much hard evidence to back up the correlation between narcissism and the mere enumeration of certain pronouns.

Who is the biggest user of “I” and such since 1945? Why, the colossal egotist Harry Truman, of course, followed by three Republicans, none of whom were known for arrogance: the first George Bush, Dwight Eisenhower and Gerald Ford. Those leftists who saw George W. Bush as a swaggering cowboy should take note that he is near the back of the pack in I/my/me/mine terms, just a bit ahead of Mr Obama.

Also, IMHO, one reason for the increasing general use of "I" is a widespread effort to make speech less confrontational ("You're a loudmouth jerk" has morphed into "I feel uncomfortable when I hear someone say that.")

Nevertheless, Mr. Liberman is to be commended for lifting the discussion to the plane of analysis; let those who insist on psychoanalyzing Barack Obama (or anyone else) from a distance come up with a measure that's both reliable and verifiable. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Shades of Philadelphia

After winning game 5, the San Francisco Giants are going back to Kansas City for games 6 and 7 (if needed) with a 3-2 lead in the World Series.

The question on the talk shows this morning is: would you rather be the visiting Giants who need to win one, or the Royals, who need to win two on their home field? History, with a little math, provides the answer. In the National League Championship Series of 2010 the Giants were in the identical situation vis-à-vis the Phillies:

Let’s say that the Phillies are 3-2 (winning 60% of the time) favorites to win each game they play against the Giants. Combining the probabilities, the Giants are 40% + (40% x 60%) = 64% likely to win one of the next two games....

Even if one thinks that the Phillies are 2-1 favorites in these home games—in other words twice as good as the Giants—the same calculation [33% + (33% x 67%)= 55%] still shows the Giants more likely to prevail than not.

The Giants ended up beating the Phillies, 3-2, in game 6 and went to the 2010 World Series, where they triumphed over the Texas Rangers.

Current Las Vegas odds give the Giants a 42% probability of winning game 6, implying an overall greater-than-60% probability of being crowned champions.

Mayor Lee should start planning the parade.

Brave New Road

Spotted on Hwy 101 in July

Sam Shank, co-founder of the hotel referral service Hotel Tonight, is enthusiastic about driverless cars [bold added]:

This is a subject I’ve thought about deeply for the past 20 years. I believe it will have as much impact on the world as the switch from horse transport to automobiles.....

Here’s what I think will happen next: the initial use of drive-anywhere autonomous cars (I call them AutoCars) will be with companies like Uber or Lyft rather than individually owned....

Soon thereafter, as adoption skyrockets, cities will designate areas that are AutoCar-only. Lanes of highways will become AutoCar-exclusive, allowing for more density of driving and far higher speeds. Roughly 10 years from now we will see the End of Human Driving – a seminal moment of the first half of the 21st century.....

With the AutoCar, our urban landscape is set to change in massive and wonderful ways. Certain fixtures will become obsolete, like parking garages, road signs, street parking and traffic lights. For most people, garages will be as anachronistic as stables, and will be reclaimed for more productive uses like extra bedrooms, playrooms or exercise rooms.

Your humble observer sees great demand for the "AutoCar,"---particularly in his own family because of sad experience---but the rule against buying a car in its first model year applies in spades to the horseless-cum-driverless carriage. The problem isn't just the science; there are also complex legal and financial details to be addressed. And just when those issues look like they're settled, ever-more-powerful drone technology will make flying driverless cars a reality.

As for me, I'll be staying out of trouble indoors playing in my holodeck.

Lawrence Hall of Science

Part of the exhibit on Nano

Having a few hours to while away in Berkeley on Thursday, we visited the Lawrence Hall of Science. As science museums go, it's not as large as popular destinations like the California Academy of Sciences or the Exploratorium. However, featured exhibits like the one on nano technology are thoughtfully presented to non-scientists (like your humble observer), and the "toys" in the play area are well designed illustrations of scientific principles.

The 3-D movie was first-rate, as is the view of San Francisco Bay. The Lawrence Hall of Science is not on most people's top-ten list of Bay Area attractions, but for long-time residents it's definitely worth a visit.

Very useful when watching Thursday's eclipse

The Paleontology was Unsettled

Male (left) and female he created them. (Economist photo)

After noting that most fish "simply broadcast eggs and sperm into the water and hope that these will meet" paleontologists hypothesized that sexual intercourse developed when creatures moved ashore.

A mollusk that lived 400 million years ago has upended that theory. Paleontologists observed that males of the presciently-named Microbrachius dicki

have special bony claspers that would, when the animal was alive, have held a female close for mating, while others (presumably female) have dermal plates corresponding to these claspers that would have allowed their paramours to get a good grip.

Today claspers can be found in male sharks and other fish. Perhaps the lyricist should have included the humble mollusk when he sang

Cold Cape Cod clams, 'gainst their wish, do it
Even lazy jellyfish do it
Let's do it, let's fall in love

Teachable Moments

The familiar thump-thump-thump of a flat tire caused me to pull over into a parking lot. Normally I'd call the auto club, but, mindful that this was a teachable moment (see yesterday's post) for a young passenger, decided to change the tire myself.

It had been decades since I had performed the task, but fortunately the steps are easily reconstructed using common sense: 1) Ensure that the vehicle won't roll; 2) Pry off the hub cap; 3) Loosen the lug nuts before jacking up the car; 4) Jack up the car; 5) Remove nuts, remove tire, put on spare; 6) Put everything back in reverse order.

The Bridgestone spare was flat, not surprising because I hadn't bought Bridgestones since the mid-1990's and probably hadn't touched the tire since. Remember to check the air pressure on the spare---another teachable moment.

We limped to the gas station a block away, pressurized the tire, and continued to our destination.

Next time I will call the auto club. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

“Most people don’t get killed parallel parking"

Empathy with one's parents becomes particularly acute when one tries to teach a teen to drive. Advances in technology, psychology, risk analysis, and education, however, can make this "rite of child-rearing" more bearable and beneficial:

researchers placed video equipment in 50 parents’ cars during supervised driving. They found much of parents’ instruction focused on vehicle handling, says Arthur Goodwin, a senior research associate at the Highway Safety Research Center, who led the study. Parents also tended to stick to routine daytime driving along familiar routes, Mr. Goodwin says. Parents’ instruction tapered off after teens learned basic vehicle-handling skills.

Few parents went on to teach higher-order driving skills, such as spotting and avoiding potential hazards, according to the study, published in March in Accident Analysis and Prevention. Many parents aren’t even conscious that they exercise these skills, such as slowing when approaching a crosswalk where pedestrians might appear, Mr. Goodwin says.

Parents tend to drill teens on maneuvers that gave them the most trouble when they learned to drive, such as parallel parking. “Most people don’t get killed parallel parking,” says Deborah Hersman, president of the National Safety Council. “The most important things parents can teach teens are how to develop hazard recognition and judgment—making the left turns into oncoming traffic, how to merge on and off highways at high speed.”

The studies' recommendations:

Do have teens practice on progressively harder roads, from quiet streets to busy highways.

Practice at night and in rain or snow.

Do coach teens to avoid glancing away from the road for more than two seconds.

Don’t bring up sticky issues while your teen is driving, such as poor grades.

Don’t tell the teen what is wrong in sweeping terms, such as “You’re always in too much of a hurry” or “You never listen.”

In other words, parents should be more communicative without being judgmental. The outcomes may be better, but the dreaded rite of child-rearing is still stressful. Personally, driverless cars can't come soon enough for me.

On the Screen

Netflix popularized watch-what-you-want-when-you-want video, and the big players (television networks, cable, and satellite companies) in the TV industry have resisted mightily:

Viewers have long wanted to pay only for the channels they watch, not the bundle that cable companies foist upon them. Television executives have resisted, rightly fearing that doing away with the bundle could tear apart a business with annual revenues of around $150 billion.

Unlike newspapers and the music industry, which saw their businesses sink with the rise of the internet, change has come gradually.

The reward for being first to abandon the old business model proved too alluring to HBO and CBS, however, both of whom announced an internet subscription service. The switchover from traditional TV to streaming should occur slowly because of inertia (which couch potatoes have in plentiful supply), the slow pace of demographic change, and convenience (subscribing to multiple providers vs. getting one bill). Nevertheless, the handwriting is on the screen.

November 4th, When the Cacophony Should Subside

Despite my initial desire to stay beneath the political-contribution disclosure laws in 2008, I sent in a little more during the fall campaigns, which meant that I had to submit my address and phone number. In retrospect the additional donation was a big mistake.

Every two years the phone has been ringing off the hook. The old Panasonic feature-phone can block up to 30 identified numbers, plus out-of-state callers. That limit has been quickly overwhelmed by political callers from our own area code.

Those people are clever, but I refuse to upgrade to a new system just to block these calls. I can't wait for November 4th, Election Day, when the cacophony should subside.

My advice to anyone considering a political donation for the first time? Don't. Find another way to support your candidate or cause. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Remarkably Discerning

Another venerable word, recently in the news, may have religious roots:

The original quarantine, dating back to the medieval era, actually lasted 40 days, and that history is embedded in the word itself. It comes to English from Old Italian “quarantina,” originally from “quadraginta,” the Latin word for the number 40.

In the 14th century, as the bubonic plague ravaged Europe, cities took extreme measures to limit the epidemic....

Historians are unsure why 40 days became the standard European length for a quarantine, giving it its name. While the rationale was tied to observations for how long it took for infected people to die from the plague, it may have had more religious underpinnings.

Forty-day periods show up throughout the Old and New Testaments: from the length of the Great Flood, to Moses’ stay on Mount Sinai, to the time that Jesus spent fasting in the desert. The latter is commemorated in the 40 days of Lent, and the same time period has been used for other expressions of penance and asceticism.

In fact, the first known appearance of “quarantine” in English (from around 1470, according to the Oxford English Dictionary) refers to the place where Jesus is believed to have fasted. In the 16th century, it could mean the 40 days in which a widow was allowed to reside in her late husband’s house.

The use of “quarantine” for infectious diseases made it into English by the time of the Great Plague of London in 1665.

The recommended waiting period for people who may have been exposed to Ebola is 21 days; if symptoms don't appear within that period, the quarantine can be lifted.

If one does have the disease, the quarantine can last much longer. Ebola can be transmitted for weeks, even past death. WHO:

Burial ceremonies in which mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can also play a role in the transmission of Ebola.

People remain infectious as long as their blood and body fluids, including semen and breast milk, contain the virus. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.

Considering that micro-organisms weren't observed until the 17th century, and that they weren't established as one source of disease until the 19th, the ancients who developed the rules of quarantine were remarkably discerning.

165th Diocesan Convention

The speech timer was turned off for Bishop Marc.

Under halcyon skies we drove to Grace Cathedral for the 165th Diocesan Convention of the Episcopal Diocese of California.

The Diocese of California consists of 80 congregations in the greater Bay Area, and lay and clergy showed up from 71 and 68 congregations, respectively. IMHO, it was a decent turnout, though a bit shy of the perfect attendance that the Bishop desired.

Bishop Marc opened the meeting at 9 a.m. Through strict enforcement of speech cutoff limits we held to the schedule and were done a little after 5 p.m. Most of the agenda consisted of reports, elections, and resolutions. There were very few surprises, with only one of seven resolutions being defeated.

The six approved resolutions were:
1) to support Prop 47, the safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act, which reduces petty theft and drug possession to misdemeanors;
2) to encourage better coordination with the other five Episcopal dioceses in California;
3) to revise the wording of the marriage ceremony in the Book of Common Prayer to include same-sex couples;
4) to redirect the church’s endowment funds to socially responsible investments;
5) to reaffirm the church’s position in support of reducing carbon emissions and against environmental racism (how power plants are often located in poor neighborhoods and harm the health of families living next to them);
6) to call for Israel's withdrawal from the West Bank and East Jerusalem. This last resolution was one of the most contentiously debated, though it did pass.

The measure that was defeated was entitled “Benefits Cost Sharing." It attempted to raise the premiums on medical insurance dependent coverage for all employees of the Diocese, both lay and clergy. This is in line with what is going on in the marketplace, and many clergy agreed with it. However, the no's prevailed when a few pointed out the severe harm that would have occurred to their finances as they deal with debilitating diseases in their children.

There was a resolution from the floor that concerned the actions of the Board of Trustees of General Theological Seminary. (GTS was founded in 1817 in Manhattan and is the oldest Episcopal seminary.) A conflict between the Dean and faculty culminated in the firing of 8 of 10 faculty members. The resolution to condemn this action passed overwhelmingly.

One of the highlights of the convention was its theme, From tears to joy: Our Asian experience. In addition to presenting the history of their communities within the Church, clergy of Asian descent led the prayers and scripture readings that were interspersed throughout the day.

The church is steadily moving into the 21st century. Most of the delegates no longer needed the over-100 page binders of materials but downloaded them to tablets and computers. Also impressive was the growing number of young people—under 30 and even teenagers—who had important roles to play.

Perhaps the church's decades-long decline in attendance has finally bottomed out, but, as I've stated before, am not too hopeful. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Hold Your Breath

(ABC News photo)

With headlines like Ebola Death Rate Hits 70% the public is understandably panicked.

The good news seems to be that Ebola will not be contracted if the uninfected completely avoid the body fluids of a sick person:

It kills health workers by exposing them to patients who, by the end, exude up to ten litres of virus-laden fluids a day. The number of infections [in Africa] seems to be doubling every two to four weeks. As health-care workers fall ill and the infection grows exponentially, a society’s defences against Ebola are rapidly overwhelmed.

The disease poses only a slight risk in rich countries, because tracing, diagnosing and isolating scattered cases is within the scope of their health systems. Officials are minimising the threat by screening travellers.

As of this writing, eight cases have been treated in the United States, but only two of them were contracted on American soil.

Hold your breath.

San Francisco Giants: We Want More

San Franciscans believe in spreading the wealth around, but not when it comes to the success of their sports teams. The Giants are going to the World Series for the third time in five years. Even fans with a progressive disposition are saying "back up the truck and give us another trophy."

No one here is crying for the Cubs, who haven't been to the baseball championships since 1945, or the Washington Nationals, a never-been-there team whom the Giants defeated in the playoffs.

Most of the nation is probably rooting for the Kansas City Royals (29 years since their last title) in the World Series. Nevertheless there are good reasons to cheer for the Giants, whose individual players have engaging narratives.

Before 2014 Tim Hudson, 39, a multiple-year All-Star for the Oakland Athletics and the Atlanta Braves, had never played in a League Championship Series, much less the World Series. Injury-prone 32-year-old Michael Morse also never made it past the LDS.

From the doghouse to the penthouse  (NY Daily News photo)

But perhaps the most compelling story belonged to Travis Ishikawa, 31. After being cut by the Giants in 2011 (he did earn a 2010 World Series ring as a back-up first baseman), he tried unsuccessfully to land a spot on the Brewers, Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates. In 2014 he was re-signed by the Giants to the minor-league Fresno Giants, where he only played intermittently. A father of three, he was giving serious thought to giving up the game when the San Francisco Giants, in desperate straits due to injury, asked him to play left field for the first time since high school.

On Thursday night Travis Ishikawa hit the game-ending home run that propelled the Giants into the World Series. The last player to strike a walk-off National-League pennant-winning home run was the 1951 Giant Bobby Thomson, who hit the shot heard 'round the world.

If we stopped here, it would be a great story already. But we want more.

Painful Enough

Today is the last day taxpayers may file their returns for 2013.

Because we had to wait for the final piece of information to arrive in August, we submitted Form 4868, which grants a six-month extension, by April 15th. Last weekend we mailed in the tax returns.

For the record, we will receive a Federal refund but owe money to the State, including taxes and penalties (sigh). Federal Form 4868 and California Form 3519 (unnecessary if there's no balance due) grant extra time for completing and mailing the returns, but not for paying amounts owed on April 15th.

Coincidentally (or maybe not), we just received a phone call purportedly from the IRS. Below is the text.

Hello, we have been trying to reach you. This call is officially a final notice from IRS, Internal Revenue Services. The reason that this call is to inform you that IRS is filing lawsuits against you.

To get more information about this case file please call immediately on our department number 202-864-1284. I repeat, 202-864-1284. Thank you.

It should be noted that my caller ID says that the call originated from 932-569-3661, not the 202 number in the message.

From the grammatical and other mistakes (Service, not "Services"), the phone call is obviously fake. I forwarded the information (admittedly without much hope that anything will be done) to some government agencies. Paying taxes and filling out the forms are painful enough without falling for a scam.

The Last Frontier

Two young scientists researched whether multitasking affected their fellow high school students' cognitive performance:

Though most teens perform better when focusing on a single task, those who are “high media multitaskers”—about 15% of the study participants—performed better when working with the distractions of email and music than when focusing on a single activity.

Most people perform poorly if they try to focus on more than one task at the same time; hence the laws against texting while driving. However, for a small minority these seeming distractions are correlated with higher performance.

Parents are concerned about the effect of information overload on the development of young brains. But the opposite---an environment with zero input to the senses ("sensory deprivation")---can also drive a mind mad.

One of the last frontiers of understanding is indeed the origin of understanding, the human brain.

When It Really Matters

SRO at City Hall (SMDJ photo)

The City Hall parking lot was filled by 6 p.m. Hundreds of Foster City residents were up in arms over the developer's proposal to raze the small shopping center and build a retail-residential complex with 150 townhomes and 250 parking spaces.

Bowing to civic pressure, the City Council killed the proposal without even taking the first step of referring it to the Planning Commission for further study.

Much as I believe property owners should be allowed a lot of leeway to maximize the value of their holdings, I couldn't support the redevelopment. Over the past 30 years a public elementary school and a private pre-school have sprung up across the street, and traffic is already a severe problem in the morning.

Traffic backs up in the morning heading north (to the left in the Developer's picture)

As I wrote to the City Council members

The intersection of Beach Park and Edgewater is one of the most congested in Foster City at 8 a.m. on a weekday, with children being dropped off and walking and biking to school. That is also the time when hundreds of residents are trying to get to work from Dolphin Bay, Sea Colony, Plum Island, and other developments, and Edgewater Blvd. is the only practical feeder route to the main exits from Foster City. Edgewater heading north is frequently stopped up for the entire length of the shopping center (to Port Royal Ave).

I cringe as drivers make hurried right turns from Beach Park to Edgewater with little kids on the sidewalk or cut through the shopping center to make a right from Edgewater to Beach Park. Pouring an additional 250 cars onto this intersection at this time (I imagine most of these projected homeowners will be working) would be a traffic and public-safety nightmare.

After the dust settles, I hope that some of the neighbors will stop complaining about every little move (painting a different color, putting up some signs) the shopping center owner proposes to improve his profitability.

Say no only when it really matters.

History's Catalyst

(Image by Dragoart)

University of Utah professor Polly Wiessner claims that the campfire catalyzed much of human history [bold added]:

The human ability to control fire had transformative biological effects. It allowed us to extract nourishment from the toughest roots and roasts, and to feed our hungry, helpless children, with their big energy-guzzling brains. But Dr. Wiessner suggests that it had equally transformative social effects. Fire gave us the evening —too dark to work, but bright and warm enough to talk.....

This nighttime talk engaged some of our most distinctively human abilities—imagination, culture, spirituality. ....they transmitted cultural wisdom and historical knowledge to the next generation, and they explored the mysterious psychological nuances of other minds.

Campfires were part of the shared human experience up till a generation ago. Now they're the victim of concerns about global warming and forest fires, not to mention the now much-easier ways to meet people at night over a glowing light. But I'll miss the marshmallows.

However, Cub Fans Are Still Waiting

The Economist reports that China is once again the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing-power parity.

The U.S. overtook China circa 1900 (see graph) and, 114 years later, China is back.

Economist: "The brief interlude in which America overshadowed it is now over."

Some of Our Best Friends....

Economist graph compiled from Gallup data.

Three reasons why same-sex marriage is rapidly gaining recognition throughout the United States[bold added]:

One reason is demographic replacement: the deaths of anti-gay traditionalists and the emergence of a generation that grew up accepting homosexuality as a normal human variation. Their nonchalance is founded upon broadening acceptance of the proposition that homosexuality, like heterosexuality, is generally innate and not inherently harmful. Yet a third reason, underlying both of the others, is that sexual minorities have emerged from the shadows into full public view.

Familiarity sometimes breeds acceptance, not contempt.

The Paper of Record Speaks

Per the NY Times, on Congressional inquiries into whether the National Resources Defense Council helped write the Environmental Protection Agency's draft regulations [bold added]:

The proposed rule, now in a public comment period, would force American power plants to sharply curb carbon emissions, the chief cause of global warming.

Pele, the Hawaiian goddess of volcanoes

Mr. Sun and Madame Pele, sorry about that, but the Times has relegated you to the ash heap of history.

The Castellated Abbey

Life (from ABC 7, Chicago):

In Africa, health officials actually screen travelers for Ebola symptoms. Here in the U.S. they don't. Even with deadly Ebola racing thru Western Africa, passengers coming from there are given no special attention arriving in the U.S.

Art (excerpts from the short story by Edgar Alan Poe):

The "Red Death" had long devastated the country. No pestilence had ever been so fatal, or so hideous. Blood was its Avatar and its seal--the redness and the horror of blood. There were sharp pains, and sudden dizziness, and then profuse bleeding at the pores, with dissolution. The scarlet stains upon the body and especially upon the face of the victim, were the pest ban which shut him out from the aid and from the sympathy of his fellow-men. And the whole seizure, progress and termination of the disease, were the incidents of half an hour.

But the Prince Prospero was happy and dauntless and sagacious. When his dominions were half depopulated, he summoned to his presence a thousand hale and light-hearted friends from among the knights and dames of his court, and with these retired to the deep seclusion of one of his castellated abbeys....

The abbey was amply provisioned. With such precautions the courtiers might bid defiance to contagion. The external world could take care of itself. In the meantime it was folly to grieve, or to think. The prince had provided all the appliances of pleasure....

it was a gay and magnificent revel. The tastes of the duke were peculiar. He had a fine eye for colours and effects. He disregarded the decora of mere fashion. His plans were bold and fiery, and his conceptions glowed with barbaric lustre. There are some who would have thought him mad. His followers felt that he was not. It was necessary to hear and see and touch him to be sure that he was not.

The story doesn't end well for Prince Prospero and his cosseted courtiers. But it's only fiction.

Keep This Outcome in Mind

Experts were zero for 18 predicting the NLDS.
Even pitchers have a better batting average.

Of course, we had a rooting interest in the playoff series between the San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals. The Giants clinched the series, three games to one, on Tuesday night, despite having a vastly inferior team to the Nationals (one national baseball commentator said that the Giants did not have the better player at any position).

Gloating over the underdog's victory doesn't confer the usual pleasures because the Nationals aren't a hated rival like the Dodgers. Also, fans fondly remember Nationals manager Matt Williams as one of the all-time greatest San Francisco Giants third basemen.

If there's any gloating to be done, it's over the baseball writers who predicted the Giants loss. In fact, Sports Illustrated's nine so-called experts picked the wrong team on all four of the League Division Series. In the case of the Cardinals-Dodgers and Giants-Nationals, they were unanimously wrong.

In an age of deferring decisions on our lives to experts who know much more that we do on practically every subject, keep this outcome in mind. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Morgen, Morgen, Nur Nicht Heute

It's tempting to mock social scientists who study productivity, then make pronouncements such as "the key step in getting things done is to get started."

Once the laughter subsides, we may discover that researchers have something useful to say about what makes us stop dithering and take action. The trick is simple: get our minds to view a task "implementally," i.e., in the present, though the actual deadline could be months away:

the key that unlocks the implemental mode lies in how people categorise time. They suggest that tasks are more likely to be viewed with an implemental mindset if an imposed deadline is cognitively linked to "now"—a so-called like-the-present scenario.

Your humble observer read this item last week and was going to make a joke about linking to it only today, but the Economist editor already came up with a similar observation:

Note: The text for this final Babbage post was originally submitted some four weeks ago. The editor claims full responsibility for procrastinating over the post's production and publication, blaming his conception of time for the delay.

Same Time Each Year

At the Foster City Dog Park we greeted familiar faces, not all of them human. The occasion was the Blessing of the Animals, also known as the Feast of St. Francis in the Catholic and Anglican traditions.

One lady said that her 8-year-old had been coming for a blessing each year since he was a puppy.

Other owners were curious newcomers who wandered over from the dog run.

As we wrote in 2006:

eight centuries after his death, the light of Saint Francis shines brighter than ever.

Blessing the beasts and the chariots

Consider the Geezers

The dangers of too much dietary sugar---in particular high-fructose corn syrup---have been known for years, but sometimes one just has to have that combination of caffeine, sweetness, and fizz found in a cola soft-drink. For the past three years I've been buying Mexico-bottled Coca-Cola from Costco.

Mexican Coke uses cane sugar and comes in retro heavy glass bottles. It's pricier than regular Coke or Pepsi, but at about a buck a bottle (more expensive at smaller retailers) compares favorably to high-end sodas. Drinking Mexican Coke has become a trend:

Mexican Coke is the new black. MexiCoke, as it is also called, is imported from Mexico and is sweetened by pure cane sugar, rather than the corn syrup found in the American version. Devotees say it delivers a sugar-infused, caffeine-amplified buzz, which is a particular draw for stay-up-all-night coders, writers and musicians. For hard-core fans, it’s Mexican Coke or none at all.

Note to all the viral marketers who look to teens and twenty-somethings for the next big thing: consider the geezers, a demographic which wants health and convenience, has money to spend, and is no longer saving to buy a house or put a kid through college. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

View It As Insurance

We are one of the 76 million households affected by the J.P. Morgan data breach.

According to the bank the stolen information was limited to "names, email addresses, phone numbers and addresses." The thieves did not obtain sensitive data, i.e., "account numbers, passwords, Social Security numbers or dates of birth."

The biggest risk

is typically “phishing”—which involves identity-theft criminals contacting customers pretending they are the bank and asking them for more personal information.

We do not have J.P. Morgan/Chase checking or savings accounts but do have several JPM credit cards to which we make payments.

Though they want you to give them all your business, it's a good idea to keep your asset (checking, savings, CD) banks separate from your liability (credit cards, loans) banks. Whenever possible, make the payment instructions from the asset account and don't authorize the liability bank to draw on your cash.

Above all, zealously guard the passwords on your asset bank(s) and never respond to e-mails. To conduct business go to the asset-bank website directly on a secure network or even visit the bank in person(!).

Having more accounts will probably cost more in fees, but view the expense as insurance against inconvenience or even severe financial loss.

Going Gently Into the Good Night

The benefit of knowing, even if the news is grim [bold added]:

A startling study in 2010 found that patients with advanced lung cancer who saw a specialist in palliative care as well as receiving the usual oncological treatment stopped chemotherapy sooner, entered a hospice earlier, suffered less—and lived 25% longer than comparable patients who received only the standard care.

Screaming Against the Streaming

Recovering addicts know that they dare not have even one drink or smoke or bet, because they know from personal experience that they can't stop at one.

I used to be a serialized-fiction addict and would immerse myself in mystery and science-fiction series to the detriment of work and personal life. I gave that up in favor of television and non-fiction business fare (which has no possibility of being addictive).

But now television-on-demand, digital videorecording, and Netflix threaten to upset the balance. Last year I binge-watched Season 1 of House of Cards but have avoided Season 2. In fact since HOC 1 I've not started any series in any medium. The remaining years are too short to get caught up in Mad Men or Orange is the New Black, outstanding entertainment experiences though they may be.

But if you can't stop clicking to the next episode to find out what happens, streaming veteran and WSJ reporter Michael Hsu has analyzed TV shows to determine at what point in the show the addict stands the best chance of stopping [bold added]:

Don't watch an episode to the end, because at that point, it's almost impossible to resist continuing to the next one. Instead, stop about three-quarters of the way in. The next time you watch, pick up from that point until most of the way into the following episode.

I know this sounds illogical. After all, how can it be easier to stop mid-show than at the end? But there's usually a lull in the narrative arc, when story lines get wrapped up and the pacing slows down. The show actually gets pretty boring.

"People unconsciously write this way," said Charlie Rubin, area head of television writing at the Tisch School of the Arts and a former writer for "Seinfeld" and "Law & Order: Criminal Intent." "It's inhale and exhale. There's always a dramatic moment, and then you pull back from it."

What's more, each episode weaves together multiple story lines, Mr. Rubin explained. The "A" story—the one involving the star—is what keeps you watching episode after episode (even the ones that don't end with obvious cliffhangers). The "B" and "C" stories involve the supporting characters.

"The usual rule of the universe is that you end your stories in order of their importance," with the minor ones wrapping first, Mr. Rubin said. "The order of finish is C-B-A."

Recovering binge-watchers can use this knowledge to their advantage. Although each show has its own template, you should try to quit at the end of the B or C story, said Mr. Rubin. "Once you cycle back to that A story, you want to see what's going to happen to Tina Fey or Tony Soprano. "

Colleagues who helped me test the theory (using "Scandal" and "Dr. Who") found that the sweet spot varies by series—but you can intuit it after watching a few episodes. In a roughly 45-minute episode (without commercials), it'll usually fall somewhere around 30 minutes in.

Good luck, and don't let your guard down.