The Same Effect

(Chronicle graph)

One month ago the order was given: [bold added]

In a Monday afternoon press conference, San Francisco Mayor London Breed announced that as of midnight on March 17, residents of San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda counties have been legally ordered to remain at home and shelter in place in an effort to slow the spread of the new coronavirus (COVID-19).

We've been inundated with information about the coronavirus, but one month later we still don't know who has it, who had it, where it came from exactly, and the best way to treat it.

We do know (graph) that the rate of new infections appears to be declining in the Bay Area. We also know that spikes in new cases occur where people have little choice but to live in dense housing, i.e., retirement communities, homeless shelters, jails, and residential hotels. While these institutions are not exclusive to cities, cities have the majority of cases.

Predictions about long-term societal effects are legion. They're also all over the map, e.g., more or less receptivity toward climate change, more or less participation in church, more or less desire for employer-provided health care, etc.

Post-war Levittown, PA (photographer: John Reps)

Here is a pretty safe prediction about attitudinal change and consequential action: the urban model is passé. Mass transit is dangerous. The risks of city living are too high for children. The flight to the suburbs and rural areas will accelerate because living there is not only safer but cheaper.

The suburbs boomed after World War II changed the country. COVID-19 is likely to have the same effect.