One is the Important Number

The general public is getting an education on what constitutes scientific evidence.

Rumors have been swirling for months on possible treatments for the coronavirus, but they're all based on "anecdotal evidence." One person's recovery doesn't tell us anything, because she may have gotten better without a particular drug, and not having side effects doesn't mean that another person won't have any. We have to wait for the clinical trials that cover thousands of cases. Clinical trials seem to take an eternity in a world of same-day shipping.

It takes thousands to prove something is true but only one to prove that it is not. Santa Clara resident Patricia Dowd, 57, died on February 6th while infected with the coronavirus. Her death occurred three weeks before the previous first-known U.S. death in Seattle on February 28th:

(Facebook via Daily Mail)

After Patricia Dowd died at home suddenly on Feb. 6 at the age of 57, her family was in shock. The woman was in seemingly good health, so the coroner’s explanation was all they had: A massive heart attack likely killed her before she hit the floor.

This week came another round of jarring news: Dowd was infected with the coronavirus at the time of her death. She is the first person in the U.S. known to have died from COVID-19.

Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said this week that neither Dowd — nor the two other people whose cases were classified as early coronavirus deaths — had traveled outside of the country shortly before their deaths.

Ms. Dowd acquired the virus from "community spread", that is, from a person not a family member or a close friend, which means the virus arrived in the U.S. long before the China travel ban on January 31st.

The infection rate in Santa Clara County could be 50 to 85 times higher than the number of reported cases, according to estimates by Stanford University scientists who administered antibody tests to 3,330 Santa Clara County residents.

Another nettlesome fact about the virus--it's mutating:

The coronavirus mutates about twice every month, so the more mutations there are, the further removed it is from the original strain and the more it has circulated among humans.

By now most of us who keep up with COVID-19 developments know that there are distinctive strains on the West and East Coasts, which are traceable to China and Europe, respectively. The ultimate origin is still thought to be Wuhan, but no one knows for sure.

The multiple mutations cause us to have a lot of sympathy for the scientists and companies who have to develop tests for all of them without signaling a false positive from another coronavirus like the cold. And of course, we can't help but feel sympathy for the family of Patricia Dowd, who was a smart and kind lady who died far too young.