Marry in Haste, Repent at Leisure

In April your humble blogger invested on the hunch that the recreational vehicle (RV) market would boom because of the desire for virus-free travel.

In late May, though the trend was confirmed, I sold my stock in Winnebago (WGO)--too early, it turned out--because of the likelihood that RVs would run out of gas. Warning signs are now appearing:

With coronavirus cases and hospitalizations now surging in many states, the industry may be running out of open road. Manufacturing difficulties and weak consumer demand could both take a toll...

Manufacturing looks to remain a challenge, even if renewed demand continues into the summer. While Winnebago’s facilities are now open, Chief Executive Michael Happe said “every day is a battle,” given manufacturing work can’t be done remotely and stringent new safety protocols must be adhered to on site...

The recent spike notwithstanding, demand for RVs as sizable nonessential purchases has been sensitive to economic swings and has even been predictive of them. With the virus still raging and the economic outlook so uncertain, #rvlife’s hot minute could easily be short-lived.

Taking the RV to the beach sounded like a good idea... (Do It Yourself RV)

Apart from economic considerations there is another limitation to growth: newbies don't know how to drive RV's. Novice drivers aren't aware that their vehicles are too tall for many drive-throughs, that they need more curb clearance for turns, and that lanes designed for cars are often too narrow. And a whole chapter could be written on improper toilet maintenance.

Unless one is a specialist in big, lumpy goods like real estate, airplanes, and RV's, selling those products is hard, while selling shares in those companies is easy. Stick to the shares.