The Seat We Deserve

The place of honor is closest to the host (Bible Art)

Today's Gospel from the lectionary is about the sin of pride, which causes us to grasp what we think is our rightful place, but we run the risk of "disgrace."

When he noticed how the guests chose the places of honor, he told them a parable. "When you are invited by someone to a wedding banquet, do not sit down at the place of honor, in case someone more distinguished than you has been invited by your host; and the host who invited both of you may come and say to you, `Give this person your place,' and then in disgrace you would start to take the lowest place. But when you are invited, go and sit down at the lowest place, so that when your host comes, he may say to you, `Friend, move up higher'; then you will be honored in the presence of all who sit at the table with you. For all who exalt themselves will be humbled, and those who humble themselves will be exalted."----Luke 14:7-11

Secular success does not guarantee a good position at the heavenly banquet. The Host values humility and will place us in the seat we deserve.

Mortgage Occupancy Fraud

The top of the mortgage application requires the borrower to declare
the loan's purpose (primary residence, secondary residence, investment).

The Trump Administration is investigating three outspoken political opponents, California Senator Adam Schiff, New York Attorney General Letitia James, and Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, for the possible crime of mortgage occupancy fraud. Claiming that a loan is for one's principal residence (versus a vacation home or a rental property) allows the borrower to have both a lower interest rate and a lower down payment, and it has been alleged that these three knowingly lied on their applications. [bold added]

Lenders typically offer better terms on mortgages for a primary residence, and let people borrow more than they would for a second home or an investment property they may rent out.

For a primary residence, for instance, the down payment can be as low as 3% to 5%. For a second home, typically 10% to 20%. For an investment property, it is usually at least 20%.

Mortgage rates for a second home are also typically 0.25% to 0.50% higher than the rate for a primary residence, said Garth Graham, senior partner at Stratmor Group, a mortgage advisory firm. The rate is usually 0.50% to 0.75% higher for an investment property.

The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage was recently 6.58%.

Another reason people might want to claim a second home as a primary residence: Nonowner occupied properties often have higher property taxes and higher insurance premiums than primary residences, said Jon Goodman, a lawyer with a specialty in mortgage fraud.

The crime is difficult to prove, partly because it is allowable to apply for a loan on a new primary residence while living elsewhere (for example, I want to move to a new purchased condo in Arizona first, then sell my California home), and circumstances may have changed (I don't like my retirement choice after all and will continue to live in my current home). In the latter case, the bank will not normally change the loan terms as long as I continue to make the payments.

Mortgage occupancy fraud is rarely prosecuted, and most real estate participants know this. Checking the wrong box can save thousands of dollars each year. Doing the right thing when there is hardly any penalty for doing the wrong thing and it's highly unlikely that one will get caught anyway is a true test of character.

Foster City: Once Awful, now Admirable

View of the houses across the lagoon from our neighborhood

Foster City gets some love from Peter Hartlaub, the Chronicle's culture critic:

The Bay Area, a land where natural beauty confronts us on nearly every hill and bend in the road, had a condescending reaction to the Peninsula’s first planned community...But I recently returned at reader request — exploring by bike, foot and personal watercraft — and discovered a small town filled with appeal and outdoor fun...

As we weave around a bit drunkenly [on a kayak] through the lagoons, Foster City’s appeal emerges. The backs of homes face the water with beautiful succulent gardens, colorful play structures and easy access to launch a paddleboard, kayak or small electric boat. We see scores of small watercraft at every turn...

I cruise by [on a bicycle] Foster City’s suburban Eichler homes — there are more than 200 of the low-slung modernist residences created by famed developer Joseph Eichler (far from Temko’s “crass and anarchic” corporate construction) — and find Brewer Island Elementary, with its endearing New England architecture and a kid-size widow’s walk. We keep running into the city’s 24 parks. Erckenbrack Park with its small playground and beach, far east of Leo J. Ryan Park and well inside the labyrinth, is a great picnic spot.

But the best detour is Foster City’s new nearly 2-mile seawall that my colleague John King wrote about, which now frames the city with an elevated bike and pedestrian path.

Its new $90 million seawall and goose-poop problem have made the news, but it's nice that our town of 33,000 is being appreciated for the simple pleasures of living here.

Even Billionaires Want to be Accepted

The Zuckerbergs bought 11 homes in Palo
Alto to construct their compound.

Where does a billionaire live?

(It's the answer to the old elephant joke riddle "where does an elephant sit"?)

Answer: anywhere he wants.

In Mark Zuckerberg's case he and his wife Priscilla Chan want to live in Palo Alto in the Crescent Park neighborhood, which lies between Highway 101 and Stanford University.

he’s attempted to placate the surrounding community with an assortment of gifts.

Zuckerberg — who’s now worth approximately $257 billion — sent Krispy Kreme donuts, sparkling wine, chocolates and noise-canceling headphones to his neighbors as a form of consolation. Zuckerberg’s press representatives did not confirm to SFGATE which brand of wine and chocolate he gave to neighbors by the time of publication.

Though Zuckerberg’s $110 million project started in 2011, neighbors are reportedly concerned that it’s slated to continue. In total, he reportedly purchased 11 homes, sometimes offering owners up to $14.5 million to vacate their properties along Edgewood Drive and Hamilton Avenue. One of these properties, which operated as a small private school that included his two kids, reportedly violated city law. (In Palo Alto, a school or business cannot function inside of a home if employees do not live there and it creates substantial traffic).

Priscilla Chan and her statue (Artnews)

Overall, Zuckerberg’s luxe compound is anything but modest: it reportedly features a seven-foot-tall statue of his wife, Priscilla Chan, in a silver flowing robe, along with a pickleball court and several guest houses.

At least three Bay Area billionaires--Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook), Sergey Brin (Google), Lauren Powell Jobs (Apple)--have chosen to live in Palo Alto.

Not for them the big house on the hill; within walking distance they can mingle with the normals in downtown Palo Alto and Stanford Shopping Center. Some of the wealthy--think of Warren Buffett--don't want to lose touch with their humble origins. And they can live anywhere they want.

AI: This Time is Different, or Not

(Morris/Bloomberg/WSJ)

A Stanford study has shown that artificial intelligence is reducing entry-level jobs: [bold added]

The report, “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence,” published Tuesday, draws on millions of anonymized payroll records from ADP, the nation’s largest payroll processor, spanning late 2022 — when generative AI tools like ChatGPT surged — through mid-2025.

It found that employment for workers ages 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs, including software development and customer service, has dropped by 13% relative to less-exposed roles.

By contrast, older employees in those same occupations have seen employment remain steady or even grow.

The study highlights a clear divide.

“Employment has begun to decline for young workers in highly exposed occupations like coding and call centers, but older workers and workers who use AI to augment, not automate work, have seen job gains,” Erik Brynjolfsson, a Stanford economist who led the research, wrote on social media.

Experience provides some job protection for older workers in the current environment:

Harder-to-automate skills older workers picked up during their careers might be insulating them from the same kind of AI hit. A senior software developer, for example, might have learned how to work collaboratively with noncoders and deliver the product the company needs. Such skills remain highly valued to employers, and may never be automated away.

The job-market paradox that has long pre-dated AI: employers value experience, but there are fewer jobs that allow young workers to gain experience.

To cling to the belief that all will be well is to think that this time is not different. I am not sure about that, but I am sure that I'm glad I'm retired.

Counting to Ten Also Helps

(Cartoon from Lauber and Will Insurance)

Road rage, fortunately for most people, doesn't manifest itself in actions that injure people or damage property, Your humble blogger admits, however, that he does give in, once or twice a year, to yelling at another driver with the windows up or pressing on the horn. Most of the time I use mental tricks to defuse my anger:

[CHP Lt. Daniel] Hill recommends a familiar mindfulness practice to counter rising road rage: pausing a moment, then telling yourself, “OK, this person did something rude to me. What is happening in their mind? The reason they made an unsafe lane change or cut me off isn’t because they’re trying to ruin my day; maybe their day was already ruined by someone else, so they can’t focus.” Maybe they’re rushing home to a sick child, Hill added, or are terrified of being late for a job interview.

When concocting an imaginary narrative to excuse another driver doesn't work, contemplating the cost of an auto repair that can easily amount to thousands of dollars sobers one quickly.

I also envision the other driver getting an expensive ticket or an even more expensive repair if he continues driving in the same manner. It's not kind, I know, but it gets me home safely.

If You Have to Ask, You Can't Afford It

(Photo from charity buzz)

From 2009 to 2016 I was a regular viewer of Royal Pains, USA channel's romantic dramedy about a startup concierge medical practice in the Hamptons. The show had the difficult-to-diagnose conditions that doctor shows usually have and multi-season story arcs. The millionaire inhabitants of the Hamptons were sometimes gently mocked, but there were no pure villains. When the series wrapped, the practice had become successful, and all the major characters had resolved their conflicts.

Now there are several concierge doctors in the Hamptons, and one even attributes the founding of his business to the TV show.

Along with other areas with surging centimillionaire and billionaire populations such as South Florida, the Bay Area, New York City and Los Angeles, the East End of Long Island is teeming with concierge doctors who treat patients swiftly (usually), discreetly (hopefully) and expensively (always). These doctors charge a membership fee anywhere from a few thousand dollars to six figures a year, with one-off house calls on top of that often starting around $1,000. These doctors do not typically accept insurance.

“Money is not an obstacle,” Rashid said. “Not only can concierge medicine provide fast service, it also provides advanced medicine.” Rashid, a family physician who trained in Miami and New York and has worked in the Hamptons for 15 years, opened a branch of her company in Palm Beach, Fla., in 2021 for their snowbird clients.

The Hamptons concierge-medicine boom started in 2020, when doctors saw an opportunity to test and treat the affluent community working remotely from their beach houses. Nationwide chain Sollis Health, which focuses on emergency medicine, started a center among the tony horse farms of Water Mill in 2021. Other options include Casa Health, White Glove Medicine and individual practitioners including Dr. Magdalena Swierczewski, M.D., and Dr. James Giugliano, D.O.

Dr. Golberg treats a couple aboard their yacht

Many of these doctors bill themselves as one-stop shops for all family medicine needs. Some do cosmetic services, several specialize in increasingly popular antiaging and integrative-health services, while others rush over to White Parties in the wee hours when things go awry. All of them know their way around Lyme disease and addiction issues.

[Dr. Alexander] Golberg had the idea to begin practicing concierge medicine in the Hamptons after watching “Royal Pains,” a television show that ran from 2009 to 2016 about a doctor who does just that. An entrepreneurial type, Golberg immigrated from Russia in 1989 and worked at his cousin-in-law’s cubic zirconia business after medical school. He has an M.D. from St. Petersburg Medical Academy and a D.O. from the New York College of Osteopathic Medicine, and is board-certified in family, osteopathic, antiaging and regenerative medicine.

Patients get instant, personalized service in exchange for paying annual six-figure fees, and their clients are happy to pay it,

Bargaining Doesn't Work Here

I have a good friend who has been trying to convert me to his form of Christianity for 52 years. In his words, he wants me to repent of my sins and welcome Jesus Christ into my heart as my personal Savior.

During the Sacrament of Holy Communion Episcopalians ask forgiveness of their sins and repeat the tenets of faith in the Nicene Creed. Although these are consistent with his faith, that's not good enough for my friend.

To be fair, he is well aware that he and I each have chronic illnesses that will shorten our lives, and he is anxious for me to use his methods for the sake of my immortal soul. (Pascal's Wager comes to mind, i.e., give your all to saving a soul in this world because the reward of salvation is infinite.)

Leo Tolstoy (Zuma/WSJ)

This line of reasoning makes me increasingly uncomfortable, i.e., perform a set of actions in order to get into heaven. Konstantin Levin, the co-protagonist of Tolstoy's “Anna Karenina,” rejects this transactional philosophy. [bold added]

Levin realizes that our fundamental knowledge of right and wrong isn’t derived from theory but is simply “given.” “I and all men have one firm, incontestable knowledge, and that knowledge cannot be explained by reason—it is outside it, and has no causes and can have no effects.”

In saying goodness has no causes, Levin means that why we have come to think certain things are good—say, the way some evolutionary biologists explain altruism as good for group survival—is a different question. What is good is good regardless of why we’re able to think so. By the same token, “effects” are beside the point because to do something good to be rewarded, in this life or the next, would simply be an economic bargain, like saving for retirement.

Do good as much as you can when you can, and expect nothing in return.

For whoever desires to save his life will lose it, but whoever loses his life for My sake will find it.----Matthew 16:25

Low Hanging Fruit

Bret Harte elementary principal Hilinski (Mejia/Chronicle)

At the cost of $500 per student per year, a San Francisco elementary school has seen "jaw dropping" improvement in literacy skills: [bold added]

[San Francisco principal Jeremy Hilinski's] school-based assessments showed that 80% of the kindergarten and first-grade students participating in the tutoring were mastering foundational literacy skills by the end of the year, which was a “gigantic” improvement, he said.

Chapter One is a private tutoring company providing trained, paid tutors who are based in specific classrooms each day, working individually with students for five to 15 minutes at a time on letter recognition, letter sounds and other foundational reading skills. The students who were tutored saw their grade-level literacy rates jump to 54% from 24% in the limited period, according to initial progress reports.

“There’s no shortage of programs going into San Francisco schools for literacy,” he said. “This one actually worked.”

And it only costs $500 per student per academic year, with the donations-based San Francisco Education Fund covering the cost for just over 1,000 mostly K-2 students for the final five months of the past school year...

The Ed Fund not only paid for the tutors, but also covered the cost and staffing required to manage the program — work that included scheduling the tutors and coordinating with teachers as well as all the other bureaucratic and logistical issues that administrators and educators don’t have time for.

Individual instruction of "five or 10 minutes each day" was enough to show results; it may explain why parents who spend time reading to their kids can make such a difference. It may also explain why home schooling, for all its drawbacks, produces kids who are on average superior academically to those who graduate from public school.

According to a Census bureau 2024 report San Francisco spent $23,654 per student in FY2022. Where all the money went remains a mystery, but it's clear that "administrators and educators don’t have time for" a $500 proven program that helps children read.

Illiquidity + Greed = Disaster

(Table from University Business)

The nation's largest universities have tens of $billions in endowment funds, yet are experiencing a cash squeeze. [bold added]

Over the past couple of decades, no group of investors has piled into what are called alternative assets more eagerly than the endowment funds of major colleges and universities. In their rush to emulate the stellar success of Yale University’s endowment head David Swensen, who died in 2021, educational institutions pulled tens of billions of dollars out of stocks and bonds and poured it into hedge funds, private equity, venture capital and other investments that don’t trade publicly.

The result looks nothing like the portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that has long been a guidepost for many investors. On average, in fiscal 2024, educational endowments with more than $5 billion in assets held only 2% in cash, 6% in bonds, 8% in U.S. stocks and 16% in international stocks, according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers. That left two-thirds of their total holdings in private funds and other non-traditional assets that can’t readily be turned into cash.

Now you understand the life-or-death panic that seized such elite institutions as Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Harvard, Northwestern and other universities when the Trump administration threatened to cut off their federal funding. Even though their endowments hold billions of dollars, much of that immense wealth might as well be stored on the planet Proxima Centauri b, about 4.2 light years away.

These universities are slashing budgets, freezing their hiring and scrambling to raise money any way they can.

An investment rule that's easy to understand but emotionally difficult to implement is to keep enough liquidity to cover cash needs, even during a down market or a shortfall from a funding source like the Federal government. It's a hoary lesson that one doesn't need an MBA from Harvard, Stanford, or Wharton to follow: greed and pride can be your downfall.

Disney's Yellow Submarines

In 1962, when I first visited Disneyland, the "Submarine Voyage" required an E ticket, making it among the most sought-after rides. Over time the Submarine Voyage fell into disfavor, overtaken by other attractions that used more advanced technology.

Its age and maintenance difficulties have put the underwater voyage at the center of some of Disneyland’s most intense internal debates. In 1959, the ride was a marvel unlike any other theme park attraction, partly inspired by “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea” and partly by the USS Nautilus, the world’s first nuclear-powered submarine, which voyaged to the North Pole in 1958. Walt Disney described the 52-foot-long boats as “the eighth-largest submarine fleet in the world,” according to the Los Angeles Times, and naval officers attended the ride’s opening ceremonies.

But like so many attractions in Tomorrowland, the technology of the future quickly became a thing of the past. People’s attention waned, and the ride became burdensome because of costly maintenance. By the 1980s, the LA Times wrote, the lagoon was leaking thousands of gallons of water a day...

Submarine Voyage closed in 1998, but its fate was uncertain. Imagineers kept fighting for the ride, a rare instance of creatives and executives clashing in the public eye rather than behind the scenes at the company...

Because of those efforts, officials relented in keeping the lagoon and retheming the ride. The deciding factor was when Sklar hired a naval engineering firm to assess the submarines. According to Sklar, they “came back and said, ‘Fellas, there’s 40, 50 years life left in these things.’”...

The lagoon was an empty eyesore for nearly a decade, until reopening with a “Finding Nemo” revamp in 2007. The refurbishment changed the show experience and converted the boats from diesel to electric, thereby making space for two more seats per vessel, for a total of 40 passengers each. With the additional seats, the ride can accommodate around 1,000 people per hour, compared to rides such as the Haunted Mansion and the Pirates of the Caribbean, which can take in, respectively, around 2,600 and 3,400 people hourly. To meet initial demand when the ride opened in 2007, the park announced that “Finding Nemo will remain open for up to 2 1/2 hours after the park closes, adding up to what Disneyland calls an ‘eighth day’ in the week,” the LA Times wrote at the time.

Aside from new paint, new names and those additional seats, the submarines were, and are still, largely the same as they had been nearly five decades prior.

Preferences changed as boomer children became adults, but as with Small World, age and nostalgia have reawakened interest in a ride that's not as loud or stimulating as Disney's other attractions.

As we live a life of ease
Every one of us
Has all we need
Sky of blue
And sea of green
In our yellow
Submarine

No Fountain in its Future

Armand Vaillancourt, 95, stands in the midst
of his water sculpture (Suzuki/Chronicle)

Last month all signs pointed to its demise. This week San Francisco filed the paperwork that will lead to the removal of the Vaillancourt Fountain. [bold added]

San Francisco parks officials this week requested the removal of the massive Vaillancourt Fountain from Embarcadero Plaza, the first written acknowledgement that they do not intend to include the controversial 710-ton sculpture in the plaza’s planned redesign...

The letter, a copy of which was provided to the Chronicle by park department officials, notes that it would cost an estimated $29 million to restore the broken-down fountain to working order. That sum almost equals the entire $32.5 million budget for the ambitious park makeover to combine the area formerly known as Justin Herman Plaza with Sue Bierman Park, creating a seamless 5-acre multiuse destination across from the Ferry Building.

The concrete Brutalist fountain, which has been a lightning rod for public opinion since its debut a half-century ago, sits in the middle of the planned multiuse area. A park department report estimates that it would cost $2.5 million to remove it.

Your humble blogger does like the fountain but he does not love it. I have no way of judging whether it's worth $29 million to the City to restore it, plus committing $millions to maintain it annually. I do hope its replacement--the "seamless 5-acre multiuse destination"--does not turn out to be an overhyped, underpriced monstrosity like most of the City's other projects, thereby making everyone regret that they were stampeded into destroying a unique work of art.

Sibling Surrogacy

It's the plot secret in dozens of novels, movies, and TV series: your "aunt" is really your biological mother (21st century variation: or surrogate, not necessarily the same as biological mother).

Except now that fact is known and accepted by everyone from the beginning:

Emilee gave birth to her niece, the child of brother
Ben and wife Taylor (McGarvey / WSJ)

They Needed a Surrogate, So They Asked a Sibling to Do It

Having a surrogate give birth to your baby can cost as much as $200,000. Taylor and Ben Shinoskie found a cheaper womb to rent.

Ben’s sister, Emilee Shinoskie, gave birth to their healthy baby in May. Taylor and Ben, both 33 years old, saved money by taking on much of the administrative work themselves, though the birth still drained about $57,000 from their savings. The three of them, in Columbus, Ohio, navigated legal minefields and family dynamics that no contract could anticipate...

Surrogacy is often a last-resort option for couples struggling to have a biological child, and a common route for same-sex couples. It is typically the most expensive path to parenthood, and only a precursor to the massive cost of raising children. It combines the expenses of involving another person for nine months with the costs of in vitro fertilization, through which embryos are conceived in a lab.

Working with a friend or family member can be cheaper than hiring a stranger, but also messier. Taylor and Ben’s lawyer advised them to compensate Emilee, but she refused to be paid. After she wouldn’t deposit a $10,000 check, they bought her maternity clothes, paid for groceries and secretly replaced the tires on her car.

There were nearly 10,000 embryos transferred to surrogates in 2022, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some women receive multiple transfers, and some types of surrogacy aren’t tracked.

The total embryo transfers to all surrogates, related or not, are just under 10,000 per year. Expect that total to increase as children become more highly valued by societies around the world.

These Geese Will not be Cooked

Ryan Park in July, 2022

We've been writing about Foster City's Canadian-goose problem for years. The NY Times covered it in June. Here's the Chronicle's take: [bold added]

Welcome to Foster City, home to 24 parks and more than 160 acres of open space that collects some 300 pounds of goose poop a day.

Foster City has received national attention for its troubles with Canada geese. Each goose — the city estimates it has between 300 and 400 of them — can produce one or two pounds of droppings a day, turning a park into a minefield. The goose poop requires regular power washings and has contributed to high E. coli levels in parts of the local lagoon. During nesting season the birds can become aggressive, even chasing off small dogs and children.

Non-lethal solutions are being tried.

Earlier this month, Foster City took its most comprehensive action yet, with the city council approving a roughly $400,000 contract with a wildlife company to deter the geese at seven “high impact” parks. Starting sometime in the next month, the company will begin using drones, lasers, balloons and — eventually — dogs to scare or “haze” the birds. The contract, which is active through June 2026, approved nonlethal measures only.

Foster City residents and officials alike are waiting to see whether their latest efforts will make the geese think twice about nesting at a local park. Previous attempts have been mixed. When the city tried strobe lights, residents seemed more bothered than were the geese. Adding fencing around the lagoon kept geese out for a while, but the geese eventually found ways around it. Egg addling — shaking or otherwise damaging newly laid eggs to prevent the embryo from developing — keeps the population from growing too rapidly, but that doesn’t affect the living geese, which can survive for more than 20 years.

I don't have much hope that these methods will put a dent in the problem.

The geese aren't scared of us, though most geese still fly away when humans or dogs chase after them (I speak from personal experience). However, the cost of live geese patrols is prohibitively high. Robot hunters offer promise, but that solution is years away. Meanwhile, Foster City residents should keep looking down when they walk.

Don Peter

Don Peter (1938-2025)

Donald Gene Peter was a bear of a man. 87 when he died last month, he still looked the part of the offensive lineman who pushed aside linebackers for Stanford. We were on the Farm in different decades--he in the '50's and I in the '70's--but they may as well have been in different centuries. When Don played, Stanford's mascot was an Indian, the school was part of the Pacific Coast Conference (one of the predecessors to the Pac-8), and face masks on helmets were not required.

High school and college football was just the start of a lifelong devotion to sports:

Along with teaching history, Don coached football at Downey, Mills, and Burlingame High Schools. He also founded and coached the Burlingame Rugby Club that won the national championship.

It's cliché, but up until the very end Don was giving to his extended family, to his church, to his community, and public education:

Don's parents instilled in him the importance of contributing to his community. In the 1970s, he oversaw the conception and building of two creative playgrounds at Herbert Hoover Elementary in Burlingame with his first wife, Sally. He organized dozens of reunions and hosted backyard parties with his second wife, Elizabeth.

At the memorial service on Saturday we arrived a few minutes early but had to park at the shopping center across the street. The church was filled, and we sat in the overflow room in the back. His children said how much they loved him and will miss him. I will, too.

Reading in the Room

Library tote bags (Chron photo)

Marketers have struggled to figure out how to appeal to older members of Gen Z, aka twenty-somethings, but this trend comes as a surprise. Emily Hoeven writes: [bold added]

It’s no secret that young people in San Francisco don’t frequent bars and nightclubs the way they once did.

This has left many perplexed. If the city’s dwindling population of 20-somethings isn’t drinking and dancing, what are they doing?

This 20-something has spent much of her time this summer at the San Francisco Public Library. And based on my observations, plenty of other young adults have, too.

No, we aren’t geeks. The library is cool.

To start, it’s a free third space — a perk that cannot be overstated in this ridiculously expensive city.

I recently visited the Chinatown library shortly before it closed at 8 p.m. There was barely an empty seat in the house. And it was impossible not to notice the sizable number of young adults.

Is it any surprise we’d forgo a moody bar when a glass of wine can set you back $20 these days?

Thousands have earned the library tote bags that are given to those who complete 20 hours of reading (books) over the summer. Given enough time, everything passé, even reading books, will become cool again.

Matcha Madness

(Image from akimatcha)

Your humble blogger likes green tea and its matcha variant, but he doesn't love matcha as much as its afficionados do. [bold added]

Matcha’s meteoric rise in popularity, along with a proliferation of resellers who buy large quantities of the tea from the small number of Japanese vendors who produce it each year, has triggered a global shortage and a steep jump in prices. The market turmoil has spurred a fierce debate among the matcha faithful about who exactly is responsible for the dwindling supply—and who deserves to drink it.

They have taken to policing how many grams of matcha is acceptable to use in a latte. People who keep multiple tins in their collections are criticized by matchaholics who point out matcha’s limited shelf life. Those who don’t take care to use every last bit of powder, such as by gently opening the tin over a bowl so that wayward powder doesn’t fly into the air, are scorned for wasting money.

[27-year-old Kimi] Jayasiri, who posts videos of herself making matcha, rating brands and cafes and offering updates on the shortage from vendors, says people often accuse her of hoarding tea or even causing the shortage. After she posted a TikTok showing a suitcase overflowing with matcha and matcha-infused foods she bought in Japan during her honeymoon, the comments were scathing. “This is the greed they talk about in the Bible,” one read.

Although economists haven't covered themselves with glory recently (tariffs did not trigger a depression), it's very likely that the craze for matcha will follow the economics playbook. Red-hot demand has escalated prices, which will cause matcha-makers to increase production. Supply will eventually meet demand, and prices will stop rising.

The madness of the matcha crowd has a limited life-span.

BLSH

Nearly every adult has taken a word-association test (when you hear this word, what's the first word that comes to mind?), the practice of which originated with Swiss psychologist Carl Jung (1875-1961).

Chairman Blumer and CEO Farley (McDermid/Reuters/WSJ)

So when you see this ticker symbol of a company that went public this week--BLSH--, what is the first word that you think of? If you said the correct name, Bullish, you are a better man than I. The stock's performance did live up to its name.

Shares of Bullish soared 84% in the cryptocurrency exchange’s initial public offering Wednesday, highlighting the challenge of pricing an IPO in today’s exuberant market.

Just last month, shares of software company Figma jumped 250% in their debut. That prompted whispers about the risks of a company underpricing an IPO and potentially leaving billions of dollars on the table.

The ideal first-day gains are typically around 20% to 30%, many bankers who work on deals say. Bullish closed the day at $68, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $10 billion. Its stock, which trades under the symbol “BLSH,” was temporarily paused after it began trading...

Bullish priced its IPO at $37, above its already increased price range, raising roughly $1.1 billion. The company allocated about 20% of the offering to individual investors—a larger chunk than is typical—in part to prevent a run-up in the stock price once shares start trading Wednesday, according to a person close to the deal. Most IPOs allocate less than half of that to individual investors...

Bullish launched in 2021 and is backed by prominent investors including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and hedge-fund manager Louis Bacon. The exchange’s total trading volume had exceeded $1.25 trillion as of March this year.

Were I 30 years younger, I might invest in various aspects of the cryptocurrency market. However, it's hard for me to stomach the volatility and even harder to rationalize an investment in something immaterial, and yes, I know, that the dollar and other fiat currencies are also in the end only a little more solid than bitcoin.

For the sake of the stock market and the hopes of risk-taking investors, I hope it is not all BLSH.

Stanford to California: We Don't Need Your Money

Last September California banned "legacy" admissions in private colleges, i.e., the practice of favoring the children of alumni during the admissions process.

The law is difficult to implement, since many applicants have impressive resumes and it will be nearly impossible to prove that being a legacy was the deciding factor in a candidate's admission.

Stanford University decided not to play the game of prove-that-I'm-violating-a-complicated law. Stanford announced that it will continue to give preferential treatment to legacies: [bold added]

With three weeks to go before California’s ban on legacy admissions takes effect at private universities that receive state funding, Stanford has made a stunning decision: To preserve that perk, it’s pulling out of the Cal Grant program that benefits hundreds of low-income students at the pricey campus.

By declining Cal Grants, Stanford can continue giving admissions preference to hundreds of students who are related to alumni or whose relatives have given money to the university. The statewide ban on such legacy and donor-driven admissions takes effect Sept. 1 under Assembly Bill 1780, which was signed into law last year.

Stanford officials say they will cover the canceled aid with university money, and that it will cost just $4 million a year...

Stanford is one of six California private schools that last year reported giving preferential admissions to the children of alumni or wealthy donors. Stanford said it admitted 295 students this way in fall 2023, or 13.6% of all undergraduates admitted that year. The other private schools that relied on the practice were Santa Clara University, the University of Southern California, Northeastern University Oakland (formerly Mills College), Claremont McKenna College and Harvey Mudd College. None has said it was pulling out of the Cal Grant program.

Jonathan Levin

Without considering the moral arguments, Stanford's decision can be justified on a dollar-and-cents basis:

Stanford's endowment exceeds $36 billion and can easily cover the loss of Cal Grant's $4 million per year.

If it did forsake legacies, Stanford would risk future donations by billionaire alumni like Google's Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Nike's Phil Knight and thousands of mere millionaires.

There are no Federal laws against legacy admissions, and therefore Federal funding to Stanford will not be jeopardized by this decision.

With the elevation of Business School Dean Jonathan Levin to its Presidency, Stanford appears to be pulling back from the egalitarian excesses (anti-Semitism, DEI) that have plagued it and the nation's most prestigious universities.

Drawing of the Day

I identify with the guy on the left.

25 Pictures with Deep meaning 🧵

1. Just enjoy it pic.twitter.com/LwZmH2KqBM

— The Adventurous Soul (@TAdventurousoul) August 12, 2025

The Pace is Still Glacial

$700 leases you a top or bottom pod

Ten (10) months ago we wrote about a creative solution to San Francisco's cost of housing:

The reported rent of $700 per month is a fraction of the cost of a studio apartment. Even if one can afford to pay much more for housing, being a pod person may appeal to finance or engineering types who work long hours in the office and just need a place to crash and wash up.

James Stallworth and his company, Brownstone Shared Housing, were unable to achieve profitability, and the landlord is trying to evict him for unpaid rent.

Last week, Brownstone’s landlord — the Prime Co., a Kansas-based real estate developer — filed an eviction lawsuit accusing the startup of owing more than $150,000 in rent payments. The alleged debt is equal to about a year’s worth of unpaid rent, according to court records...

The eviction lawsuit comes months after Stallworth and his landlord switched to a new lease contract that pivoted away from requiring the startup to make monthly rental payments, switching instead to a “revenue sharing” model.

Per the contract, which was viewed by the Chronicle, the landlord would receive 80% of all profits generated from the sleeping pods.

The common area

While Mr. Stallworth is primarily responsible for the likely failure of his pod-rental business, the City's labyrinthine regulations must share the blame: (bold added)

San Francisco Planning greenlighted the building’s residential conversion in October, only to rescind the approval a month later, after ruling that the project didn’t meet the city’s affordable housing requirements and accusing Stallworth of misrepresenting certain details of the project.

At that point, Stallworth faced over $300,000 in affordable housing fees, payment of which the city required from all housing developers with projects of 10 or more units.

Stallworth was offered a lifeline when legislation by former Mayor London Breed exempted downtown residential conversion projects like 12 Mint Plaza from paying the onerous fees. Brownstone’s sleeping pods were approved to operate again, pending final permits from the department of building inspection.

But those permits were never pulled, public records show. Dan Sider, the planning department’s chief of staff, said the lack of permits has caused Brownstone to accrue $69,000 in penalty charges with the department to date.

With only 13 (out of 30) pods approved for rental, Brownstone Shared Housing's gross income of $9,100 per month has no way of paying San Francisco's unpaid penalties and fees in addition to the cost of operations. Even if all 30 units were approved and leased, monthly rents of $21,000 minus an 80% profit-share going to the landlord makes the business proposition very iffy. There are operating expenses, plus the cost of the original conversion, that Brownstone has to recover.

Mayor Daniel Lurie has said he is trying to make government more efficient, but the pace is still glacial.

A Golden Year

Your humble blogger has had a number of health scares over the past year, to the extent that it was problematic whether I would see this day. Well, I, we, are still here.

We commemorated our anniversary by asking the lady minister to bless our union. After she did so, some members of the congregation, which had supported us during our time of trial, applauded.

I spoke to them during coffee hour and let them know how much I appreciated their prayers and being part of a community that believed in the primacy of the Word, before which concerns of the world are secondary.

The recessional hymn was "Be Not Afraid," which has comforted many who are facing the unknown. We who are in the winter of our lives are asking questions whose answers are all-important and don't come with guarantees that satisfy the scientific mind. In the end we are forced to trust the One who said "Take heart, it is I; do not be afraid."

Mind that DSUE (Deceased Spouse Unused Exclusion)

The estate tax exclusion for this year is $13.99 million and will rise to $15 million next year. If an individual's estate is worth less than that amount, his estate tax is zero; if more, then the tax is 40% on the amount over the exclusion.

Married couples can bequeath estates worth double the exclusion on a tax-free basis, but they must be careful to file an estate-tax return for the first spouse that dies. [bold added]

The U.S. tax code is generous when it comes to passing down money to heirs tax-free, and it has only become more so under the new tax law. But for married couples to obtain the full benefit, there is a strict set of rules. Messing up can be disastrous.

In the case of Billy Rowland, it cost his heirs $1.5 million in extra estate taxes.

Rowland expanded his many small businesses in Lorain, Ohio, over decades, with his hand in trucking, used cars, commercial real estate and banking. He served on local charity boards and wore a “World’s Greatest Grandpa” cap.

After he died, his executor filed an estate-tax return, and the Internal Revenue Service came calling in 2021, asking about the estate return of his late wife, Fay, filed years earlier. The tax agency said it believed her return was incomplete, and that disqualified his estate from getting a share of her exclusion.

The Rowland case has lawyers and accountants who prepare estate-tax returns on edge. The Tax Court sided with the IRS last month, disallowing the estate from using the common planning technique known as portability.

That lets a surviving spouse use any leftover exclusion amount from the first spouse to die—as long as the estate filed a return and filled it out properly. The trouble is, often no one checks the work until the second spouse dies. At that point, it can be too late to fix any mistakes.

The Tax Court said Rowland’s estate couldn’t take Fay’s unused exclusion amount of $3.7 million because of the error. Hence the extra taxes. The message to wealthy families is that obtaining the doubled estate tax shelter for married couples isn’t automatic...

For most surviving spouses, a $15 million exclusion is enough to shelter their estates from taxes. They don’t need the combined $30 million available to a married couple. Yet nearly 500,000 Americans have a net worth of $15 million or more, according to the global wealth tracker Altrata.

For those with estates worth $15 million to $30 million, it generally makes sense to file an estate-tax return when the first spouse dies to elect portability. “It would be a disaster if they fouled up,” said Ed Zollars, a Phoenix-based CPA.

Even those with less than $15 million today might need the first spouse’s extra exclusion amount later on. Their investments could grow, or they could get an unexpected inheritance or win the lottery...

IRS rules allow nontaxable estates to leave off specific values on the estate-tax return if the assets are left to a spouse or charity. Fay named children, grandchildren and friends among her heirs, so her estate wasn’t allowed to use those rules, the Tax Court said.

The rules may seem convoluted to people who are not tax accountants or lawyers, but the solution is relatively straightforward after 2025:

If there's a chance the combined estate will be worth more than $15 million after the death of the surviving spouse, file an estate-tax return upon the death of the first spouse--though there may be no tax due at the time. Be sure that the return assigns values to specific assets--I personally would use $10,000 as a threshold--and that the "DSUE amount portable to surviving spouse" (Form 706, Section 6, Part C, Line 10) is filled out.

Embracing the Suck

(SCMP photo)

Many trends start in Asia, but I hope this one doesn't gain purchase here.

Stressed adults rely on pacifiers to soothe themselves

Once a niche quirk, the silicone soothers are supposedly now big business on Chinese e-commerce giants like Taobao and JD.com, where they are priced anywhere from a budget-friendly 10 yuan ($1.40) to a luxury 500 yuan ($70).

They’re sold as sleep aids, stress relievers, even smoking-cessation tools — and shoppers are gobbling them up. Some online sellers move thousands each month, according to the South China Morning Post.

And the fans aren’t shy about why. “When I’m under pressure at work, I feel a sense of safety from childhood,” one Chinese buyer said, as reported by the outlet.

In the U.S. sucking on a pacifier is ripe for mockery, and I suspect that facing-the-public workplaces will ban the behavior. However, we have also seen frowned-upon practices become acceptable, as long as they don't cause harm to others. Nevertheless, I don't see pacifier-sucking being embraced, because many women will be turned off by guys who do and vice versa.

AI: "A Quiet Havoc Has Begun"

(Forbes illustration)

If your job is based on your dexterity with language, numbers, or symbols, artificial intelligence is coming for it now. [bold added]

Almost everyone is rattled by the speed of its development. The story is no longer “AI in coming decades will take a lot of jobs” or “AI will take jobs sooner than we think.” It is “AI is here and a quiet havoc has begun.”

...Last week Noam Scheiber in the New York Times reported economists just out of school are suddenly having trouble finding jobs. As recently at the 2023-24 academic year, said a member of the American Economic Association, the employment rate for economists shortly after earning a doctorate was 100%. Not now. Everyone’s scaling back, government is laying off, big firms have slowed hiring. Why? Uncertainty, tariffs and the possibility that artificial intelligence will replace their workers. Mr. Scheiber quotes labor economist Betsey Stevenson: “The advent of AI is . . . impacting the market for high-skilled labor.”

That’s only economists, not beloved in America, we probably have enough. Here’s another unbeloved group. This week Journal reporter Chip Cutter had a piece titled “AI Is Coming for the Consultants. Inside McKinsey, ‘This Is Existential.’ ” If AI can crunch numbers, analyze data and deliver a slick PowerPoint deck in two seconds, what will the consulting firm do to survive? Rewire its business. Smaller, leaner teams; let AI build the PowerPoint. McKinsey’s global managing partner, Bob Sternfels, said that in the future the company will likely have one AI agent for every human employee. It’s already reduced head count.

...Accounting firms that employ 18 people will need only 14; law firms that employ 24 will need only 18 or 20. “When AI reaches into something like ‘wealth management,’ which advisory firm would you choose: one that had all of JPMorgan Chase’s massive AI infrastructure and expertise, or a ‘boutique’ firm that did not? The question is the answer.”

While every new technology has resulted in the loss of jobs in existing businesses, it has heretofore been true that capitalism has always created a greater number of jobs in new industries. But now, given that AI is able to dispense "PhD-level" advice, that faith in capitalism is wavering.

What jobs are likely to survive the AI onslaught?

[John] Ellis offers Microsoft’s list of 20 such professions. They include floor sanders and finishers, roofers, motorboat operators, massage therapists and pile-driver operators.

The above advice should be taken with a grain of salt, however. It was only a few years ago that journalists, some insultingly and some well-meaning, advised coal miners to "learn to code." Journalism and computer programming jobs are now also disappearing.

I've said it before: I'm glad we're retired.

The Private-Jet Money Club

Last year we noted a WSJ article about how the super-rich signal their wealth to each other and to the merely rich. Owning items such as watches and art are only the first step; talking about them with casual insouciance is a practiced skill.

Flying private makes it easier to bring Fifi (Citrin-Safadi/WSJ)

Another item discussed in that article--flying on a private jet--has become the number one marker of real wealth.

Flying private has become the ultimate luxury splurge for many wealthy individuals, surpassing Ferraris, Hermès Birkin bags topping $14,000 or even waterfront Hamptons homes. For many of those aspiring to join the ranks of the truly rich, having “private-jet money” is the new goal, dividing the 1% from the 0.1%.

The pandemic unleashed a burst of demand, but providers say popular culture has turbocharged enthusiasm and envy for the fly-private lifestyle. Social media has given younger people a glimpse into the lives of jet-setters, whether it is a model flying with friends to a bachelorette party in Los Cabos, Mexico, or a hedge-fund manager hopping a plane to a birthday weekend in St. Barts.

...The club of ultrahigh net worth individuals with more than $30 million in assets hit a record in 2024, according to estimates from the wealth-intelligence provider Altrata. The U.S. added more than 1,000 millionaires every day last year on average, according to UBS. The billionaire club grew more than 50% between 2015 and 2024.

Thee are surely sub-categories within the private-jet club, ranging from those who lease the planes occasionally to those who own the plane outright and pay their crews as full-time employees (much like the difference between owning a time-share versus the entire property).

Note: Grok describes the difference between the 1% and the 0.1%.

As of Q2 2024, the average wealth of households in the top 1% in the U.S. is about $35.5 million, while the top 0.1% have an average wealth of over $158.6 million. This means the top 0.1% hold roughly 4.5 times more wealth per household than the top 1%. The top 1% collectively hold 30.3% of total U.S. wealth ($43.45 trillion), while the top 0.1% own 13.5% of it. The wealth gap reflects the concentration of assets like corporate equities and business income among the ultra-wealthy.

Apple Cinemas vs. Apple Inc.

Apple Cinemas theater on Van Ness Ave. (Jessica Christian/Chronicle)

Apple has sued a theater company over copyright infringement:

Cupertino-based Apple Inc. has filed suit against Apple Cinemas a month after the small and relatively new East Coast movie theater chain expanded to San Francisco.

The Cupertino-based tech giant has filed suit against the movie exhibitor in federal court for copyright infringement, alleging that the brand is trying to trick ticket buyers into thinking that the two companies are affiliated.

Apple Inc.'s protectiveness of its entertainment brand is understandable, given that the iPhone company has expanded into movie production. Moreover, Apple Cinemas' case is not being helped if, as Apple Inc. alleges, the quality of the theater experience is poor and could harm the latter's reputation among confused movie-goers. [bold added]

A notable part of the lawsuit is that Apple Inc. contends its brand could be damaged by being associated with Apple Cinemas’ alleged lack of quality control. The suit highlights comments on social media that its theaters are “greasy,” “dirty” and “grungy,” with some complaining of tech issues, including the projection system and online purchase portal.

Normally I would be inclined to support the scrappy underdog, but if Apple's claims about Apple Cinemas' products are valid, then the tech giant will win not only legally but in the court of public opinion.

Note: The irony abounds. When Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak started Apple Computer in 1976, the Beatles' Apple Corps, founded in 1968, sued over trademark infringement. During the subsequent 30+ years Apple Computer broke agreements that it would stay away from the music business and paid the Beatles' company hundreds of millions of dollars until the dispute was finally settled in 2007.

Blue News

Wild pigs near South San Jose (Mulligan/Merc)

Wild pigs are causing increasing damage, but one obvious solution--hunting and eating them--carries risks: [bold added]

A wildlife trapper in Monterey County made an unexpected discovery after capturing a series of wild pigs in March of this year. While processing the animals, the trapper found several with blue-tinged muscles and fat tissues. The bizarre discoloration is a result of exposure to diphacinone, an anticoagulant rodenticide that is often dyed to identify it as a poison, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.

In an email to SFGATE, Fish and Wildlife pesticide investigations coordinator Ryan Bourbour said that the trapper observed the wild pigs eating directly from rodenticide bait stations. The scope of the contamination appears extensive across the southern part of Monterey County and along the Salinas River, according to KSBW-TV.

...While California banned diphacinone for most uses in January 2024, agricultural operations have exemptions due to their pest control needs. That loophole has broad ecologic implications. A 2018 statewide study found rodenticide residues in 8.3% of wild pig tissue samples — and in an alarming 83% of bear samples — mainly in animals frequenting agricultural zones. Wildlife officials warn that this contamination can ripple through the food chain, since wildlife can be inadvertently consuming poisoned prey.

After confirming the presence of diphacinone in the liver and stomach contents of wild pigs with blue tissues, Fish and Wildlife’s Wildlife Health Laboratory is advising hunters to not consume meat from any animals showing discoloration. Visible signs aren’t always reliable, however. “As demonstrated by findings of exposure in nongame animals, the discoloration is not always present and is not a reliable indicator of AR [anticoagulant rodenticide] residues in meat,” the 2018 study said.

Diphacinone is already in the food chain and we can't always trust visual inspection to reveal its presence through the tell-tale blue. Wild pig will be off our menu for the foreseeable future.

Legal Protections Aren't Just for One Side

Although there have been a number of religious-freedom disputes regarding Islam, the more highly publicized state vs. religion cases have involved conservative Christians. In Masterpiece Cakeshop the U.S. Supreme Court supported the bakery when it declined to design a wedding cake for a same-sex couple when the bakery was ordered to do so by the State of Colorado. More recently we've posted about Washington State's efforts to break the seal of the confessional and the U.S. Postal Service's refusal to accommodate an employee when he didn't want to work on Sundays for religious reasons.

Christ Episcopal Church members demonstrate against the Toms River eminent domain action (ENS)

Christ Episcopal Church of Toms River, NJ wanted to build a homeless shelter, after which town officials, who opposed construction, sought to seize the property "by eminent domain if necessary, to create new public parkland."

Christ Episcopal Church has two strong lines of defense. The first is that Toms River may be abusing the power of eminent domain. (Fifth Amendment: "nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.")

The town’s proposal is “clearly an abusive use of eminent domain,” Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia, told ENS, though it would be up to the courts to decide whether such a move would be illegal. He thinks the church has a strong argument that the officials’ actions really were intended to thwart the congregation’s interest in creating a homeless shelter on the property.

The second line is that the town is infringing upon the church's First Amendment rights ("Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.") Saner heads in the Toms River government appear to have prevailed for now, as the eminent domain action has been postponed.

After an initial outcry, the vote on the plan was postponed until July 30. More recently, Mayor Dan Rodrick postponed the vote indefinitely, likely because of growing public opposition. He now says the town will go through with the vote only if a poll of town residents he plans to conduct on the subject reveals majority support for it.

This story is also noteworthy because Mayor Rodrick and six of the seven Township Council members are Republicans, the party which generally takes the side of Christian churches in battles with government. To Republicans this is a reminder that the First Amendment protects everyone, friend and foe alike.