It's Normal

(Mondo illustration)

There is a new generation of investors who have never known a bear market, the kind that grinds you down, the kind that makes you swear that you will never buy stocks again.

There is a generation of workers who think that they are in such high demand that they can tell their bosses that they will work from home whether the bosses like it or not, and that the company needs to support certain political movements over the objections of some customers, suppliers, and maybe a few co-workers.

The environment is changing. High-flying stocks have crashed, inflation has raised the expense of living, and workers are being laid off. [bold added]

Tech workers used to asking for the moon are starting to hear an unfamiliar word as startups and giants such as Google and Microsoft get more cautious: No.

For much of the pandemic, tech companies big and small went on hiring sprees where would-be employees could name their price and expect rich, work-from-anywhere perks. Now, as fears of a recession loom, more employers are scaling back or freezing hiring, rethinking how many of their positions should be remote and in some cases even rescinding job offers.

Microsoft Corp. this week said it would lay off a small percentage of its staff, following earlier layoffs at Netflix, Coinbase Global Inc. and Twitter Inc. Alphabet Inc.-owned Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai also told employees this week the company would slow the pace of hiring for the rest of the year. And the head of engineering at Meta Platforms Inc., parent of Facebook, told his managers to identify and report low-performing employees to manage them out.

It's premature to say that layoffs will be widespread. My own take is that job markets have become normal.

The bottom 10% will be dropped, the top 20% will be promoted or hired away, and the fate of the rest will follow the fortunes of their companies. The workplace will be seasoned with a little fear that, if layoffs occur, finding another job may not be so easy. It's not new, kids, it's normal.

Radio Shack v 2.0

After nearly 40 years the Foster City
Radio Shack closed in 2016.

We lamented the apparent demise of Radio Shack in 2015 but reports of its death may be premature: [bold added]

Retail Ecommerce Ventures in 2020 bought the rights to the brand in the U.S., Canada, India, Australia, Europe and China, along with related websites, for an undisclosed price. RadioShack at that time was operating as an online retailer but still had a network of stores with independent owners. [Brand marketing executive Abel] Czupor said the brand has licensing agreements with RadioShack locations.

The retailer in recent months has launched a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It plans to vastly increase the inventory on its site, including merchandise related to crypto. And it wants to revive its stores with new products such as videogames and “other trendy items,” Mr. Czupor said, to attract a wider base of consumers.

RadioShack is also examining further blockchain initiatives, according to Mr. Czupor.

The company isn’t ruling out again stocking goods that would appeal to engineers, once a staple. “We always hold true to our roots, and if that involves bringing back transistors in the stores, then so be it,” Mr. Czupor said.

Radio Shack stores are a shorthand way for movie makers to place a scene in the late 20th century. In 2019's Captain Marvel the heroine crash-lands into a shopping mall containing a Blockbuster Video Store and a Radio Shack. (These retailer outlets no longer exist, but they were ubiquitous in 1995.) Radio Shack and its Realistic electronics are prominently featured in the Netflix hit Stranger Things, which is set in the years following 1983. In science fiction shows of that era, techie characters are always running down to the local Radio Shack to build devices that will save the day.

In 2022 the new Radio Shack group has been producing edgy not-safe-for-work tweets in an effort to drum up visibility. The new business is focused on crypto, which seemed like a brilliant idea one year ago. However, the recent crash in cryptocurrencies and the bankruptcy of crypto companies bodes poorly for this strategy.

For nostalgia's sake I hope that Radio Shack comes back, but it's much more likely that I'll only see the brand in the movies.

San Francisco Decline Confirmed

(Graphic from Daily Mail)

San Francisco's population fell 7% (874,000 to 815,000) from 2020 to 2021. The biggest decline was in white young adults: [bold added]

Among those age 25 to 29 who identified as female, white and non-Hispanic, the population dropped by 26%. White men of the age group saw nearly the exact same decline.

The data shows that young people in general were more likely to leave the city. The city lost about 20% of all residents age 25 to 29 over this time and 15% of those 20 to 24.

As for those whose numbers grew,

The groups with the largest gains were Asian men and women between 70 and 74 years of age, whose estimated numbers increased by 8.4% and 9.5% respectively. This could be partially due to San Franciscans aging into those groups, as the 65-to-69 Asian population stayed essentially flat and the 60-to-64 population dropped.

Young people, white or otherwise, fled San Francisco in disproportionate numbers. They make up the future workers and upstanding citizens who will run things and pay taxes.

Meanwhile, San Francisco's gains in the elderly cohort point to ever-increasing demand for services. (Previously we had commented on the grim outlook for baby boomers who need caregivers.)

Two years ago we said that if San Francisco were a stock, we wouldn't be buyers, and this stock hasn't hit bottom yet.

Starbucks May be Slightly Woke, But It Isn't Crazy

Your humble blogger enjoys a peaceful
cuppa joe outside the Foster City Starbucks

Starbucks is closing 16 stores not for revenue or profitability reasons but because of employee endangerment:

Starbucks said it would permanently close six stores each in the Seattle and Los Angeles areas, two in Portland, Ore., and single locations in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. by the end of the month.

The company said it received reports from workers about incidents that they said involved drug use by some customers and in some cases, members of the public, in certain locations. Starbucks said it would transfer employees to other locations when it permanently closes the stores.

Clearly, calling in law enforcement didn't help, and writing off 16 stores for a wealthy corporation like Starbucks shows how dire the safety problems were.

By the way, do these locations have anything in common?

City                              When Last Republican
                                          Mayor Left Office

Los Angeles                             2001
Philadelphia                             1954
Portland                                   1980
Seattle                                     1980
Washington, DC              Zero GOP Mayors

Meanwhile, I continue to enjoy our crime-free suburban Starbucks, where the police officers arrest people for misdemeanors and which is a five-minute walk from the police station.

Going Uncomfortably into that Good Night

The boomer puzzle.

The decline of family connections and traditional social organizations (churches, Elks/Kiwanis/Freemasons, etc.) heralds a grim future for many baby boomers: [bold added]

According to the American Association of Retired Persons, 70% of people over 65 will need long-term services and support, but many won’t get it because there aren’t enough caregivers. This shortage, the AARP says, is going to get worse in the next decade. There will be a national shortage of 151,000 caregivers by 2030...

In “The Silken Tent,” Robert Frost praises a person who is “loosely bound / by countless silken ties of love and thought.” Unfortunately, an increasing number of elderly Americans lack these ties; they are childless or live far from family. Many also are unaffiliated with a church or synagogue.....

According to a Harvard study, 58% of Americans over 80 live alone. “As the baby boomers cross into their 80s over the next 20 years, the numbers of single-person households among the oldest age group will grow dramatically, from 4.7 million households in 2018 to an estimated 10.1 million in 2038.” And many of them are likely to suffer from cognitive decline. According to the Cleveland Clinic, “It’s estimated that as many as half of people 85 years of age and older have dementia.”

The boomer generation in our family has been lucky so far. We have reasonably good health for our ages (61-72) and financial resources are adequate. On the other hand, none of us has more than two children, and the "silken ties of love" aren't the thick safety net that our parents had.

Pursuing professional success and keeping families small was a trade-off that most boomers made, and I suspect many of us have regrets about that choice.

You Can See It if You Look for It

Plumb bob and line (Beddingfield photo)

Today's reading:

This is what the Lord God showed me: the Lord was standing beside a wall built with a plumb line, with a plumb line in his hand. And the Lord said to me, "Amos, what do you see?" And I said, "A plumb line." Then the Lord said,

"See, I am setting a plumb line in the midst of my people Israel; I will never again pass them by; the high places of Isaac shall be made desolate, and the sanctuaries of Israel shall be laid waste,and I will rise against the house of Jeroboam with the sword."----Amos 7:7-9

I didn't know much, nor cared, about construction through the first 30 years of my bookish life but over time grew to appreciate the skill of those in the trade. Even more astonishing were the feats of the engineers who built the seven wonders of the ancient world without the benefit of modern technology.

One essential tool that dates back thousands of years was the plumb bob, the weight that established a vertical "plumb line." (Today we use spirit levels which reveal the vertical and horizontal through air bubbles in liquid.)

The plumb line is an irresistible metaphor for the steadiness of God's word in a world of confusion. It's a metaphor that is not fully appreciated until one tries to build something without a tool that brings one back to the straight and vertical path.

Fun Fact: the original weights were made of lead (Latin: plumbum), hence the origin of plumb bob, plumb line, and lead's chemical symbol Pb.

A Small Gesture

(WSJ illustration)

Determined to follow the rules of business etiquette, I responded to every telephone message and letter request at the beginning of my working career.

But the 1970's were a lifetime ago, before email and telemarketing, before real and electronic in-boxes overflowed with messages from people and bots who don't know me personally. So now I don't answer every communication, but I do always call back people I know--even if the conversation may be unpleasant.

That's why it's disappointing that businesses--who supposedly adhere to higher standards than individuals--now "ghost" job applicants:

Sounds like you’ve been ghosted. Most people have heard this term in connection with social situations and online dating. Unfortunately, it is an ever-growing trend in the business world as well.

According to research, 73% of employers admit to having willfully ignored job candidates. This behavior has negative consequences not only for candidates but also for employers: A job seeker suffering from feelings of social rejection—and who likely missed opportunities to interview for other positions while waiting to hear back from a particularly desired employer—may turn to social media to complain publicly. The result is reputational damage to the company that can have a real negative impact on its ability to recruit down the line.

Ghosting is hurtful and unprofessional, but you may be able to put your negative experience to use. What if this is one way for the company to show you its real face? The company may have done you a favor, as you likely won’t be happy in a place that signals arrogance and little desire for long-term affiliation.

To the people in charge of hiring decisions: please treat job applicants the way you wish to be treated yourselves. If you're not going to hire them, let them know so they won't waste time waiting by the phone or mailbox. They did go through the trouble of filling out your job application, which in many cases is time-consuming.

And don't decry the meanness and cruelty in the world if you're not going to make this small gesture yourself.

Hope for the Sea Around Us

Anchovies at Bolinas Lagoon (SFGate)

Global warming Climate change is supposed to poison the oceans, but so far that 2003 model prediction hasn't conformed to reality. In fact, the opposite may be happening.

Sea life is thriving off the coast of Northern California.

According to [Fishing Association President Larry] Collins, the water this year is the coldest local fishermen have seen in a long time, and the anchovies are a testament to that.

“It's just totally healthy ocean out there right now. I heard guys telling me about pelicans that, instead of diving to fill their mouths up, they’re just skimming the water and getting full mouths of anchovies,” Collins said.

Helicopter photo of Antarctic fin whales (YouTube)

Fin whales (only blue whales are larger) are returning to the coast of Antarctica.

Large numbers of fin whales have returned to their ancestral feeding areas near Antarctica for the first time since hunting of the animals was banned almost half a century ago, scientists said in a paper published Thursday in the journal Scientific Reports.

The unexpected finding offers a hopeful sign not only for efforts to conserve the giant animals, according to the researchers, but also for the health of the ocean ecosystems in which they live. Whale feces fertilize microscopic plants known as phytoplankton. Those are eaten by tiny, shrimplike animals known as krill, which in turn sustain dolphins, seals, penguins and other marine species...

The population of fin whales in the Southern Hemisphere has reached nearly 8,000, the study showed. That is up from about 3,000 when the International Whaling Commission issued a moratorium on hunting of the whales in the Southern Hemisphere in 1976. Whaling before that time killed an estimated 700,000 fin whales.

There be dolphins here (WSJ photo)

Dolphins are coming back to the East River:

Partly because New York City waters aren’t as foul as they once were, dolphins have been visiting in greater numbers of late...

Scientists believe the marine mammals may be arriving in warmer months in pursuit of one of their favorite foods, the Atlantic menhaden, which are congregating in the area thanks to robust conservation efforts. The waters surrounding the city are cleaner now than at any time since the Civil War, said Ted Timbers, a spokesman for the NYC Department of Environmental Protection.

"...since the Civil War"--the baby boomers' yearning for Walden (1854) may not be a pipe dream after all.

Unlike some climate-change alarmists, your humble blogger won't be so bold as to claim that three data points prove a hypothesis. However, they are an indication that the situation isn't as dire as the alarmists claim, and that there's hope that some of the damage is reversible.

Admirable From a Distance

Yesterday I took a walk in Ryan Park, which was crowded with hundreds of Canadian geese.

They were rooting about, looking for the leavings from the crowd of picnickers who had come to watch the fireworks on Monday.

Dozens were waddling on the sidewalk. I could walk right up to them, though when I did so they would turn their head to glance at me sideways in case I was one of those children (or peculiar adults) who liked to chase futilely after winged creatures.

Each generation of ducks and geese becomes less fearful, probably because they've learned that humans are much more likely to feed than threaten them.

The fear went both ways. There were so many waterfowl that images from Hitchcock's The Birds rose unbidden from memory.

I quickened my pace and walked home, taking another route.

Homelessness Moves to the Capital

Sacramento encampment (Calif Globe)

California's homelessness problem is not confined to the coastal cities.

But the city of Sacramento actually has more unsheltered homeless people — and a higher share of them compared with its population — than San Francisco, according to just-released data.

Within the city limits of Sacramento, just over 5,000 unsheltered people — those living in vehicles and tents — were counted in a new homelessness report, compared with about 4,400 people in San Francisco.

But with Sacramento’s population of 525,000 versus San Francisco’s 874,000, that works out to a rate of 952 per 100,000 in Sacramento versus 503 per 100,000 for San Francisco.

The total count of homeless people in the city of Sacramento was not available.

San Francisco has had to deal with large numbers of homeless for years, and hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent developing a shelter network. A major part of Sacramento's problem is due to a recent housing-price escalation resulting from people moving from the coast to the Central Valley.

IMHO, Sacramento's problems are more easily fixable because there's more land to build housing and homeless shelters, and job holders will find it easier to make a rent payment (a one bedroom costs $1,302 and $2,225 in Sacramento and San Francisco, respectively, per the Chronicle). In addition, Sacramento doesn't have the same Gordian knot of San Francisco regulations that prevent things from getting done.

Let's hope California's capital city shows us the way.

Function Over Form

It works, and there are no leaks.

In 2012 I replaced the corroded faucet in one of our bathrooms with upscale $200 fixtures (pricey ten years ago) that looked nice but became harder and harder to turn after only a few years. Worse, parts were hard to find, and the faucet was difficult to repair because the home handyman had to go underneath the sink in order to loosen and tighten the handles.

So I spent this holiday weekend installing a new faucet. (I actually consumed more time hacksawing off the old one.)

Gone was the desire to look at fancy fixtures. Easiness of installation and repair was the priority; in the future cartridge replacement will be done from the top of the sink.

Beauty lies in simplicity, not shininess.

Fulfilling the criteria was a Price Pfister $100 model. Your humble amateur do-it-yourselfer took his time--three hours--making sure that the spout and handles were straight, the hot and cold lines weren't crossed (been there!), and teflon tape was wound around each thread to protect against leaks.

I'll spend more for quality and beauty, but in the future the form of a mechanism will take a distant backseat to function.

Independence Day, 2022

Hillsdale Blvd, the busiest street in Foster City,
was closed to traffic next to Ryan Park.

After a two-year hiatus the Independence Day festivities returned to Foster City bigger than ever.

The roads surrounding Ryan Park were closed to traffic.

The viewing areas in the park have become so desirable that the City has implemented a reservation system, and families began setting up their tents before noon.

By early evening seats were at a premium, and some fireworks-watchers sat on a curb across the street, almost as if they were at a parade.

Except for the little kids who ran freely, the crowd respected each other's boundaries. It was a traditional assemblage; beer was everywhere, and I couldn't detect a whiff of marijuana.

After enjoying the ambience of a warm, humid, music-filled walk in the park, I headed home for a barbecue dinner.

The fireworks show would end close to 10 p.m., past bedtime, and I need my beauty sleep. I missed the show, but I could hear it a mile away. Maybe next year....

Another Reason to be Unsettled

Attendance was higher than normal during the long weekend.

On Friday, June 24th, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The following Monday the Episcopal Church issued a warning to its congregations throughout the United States.

Excerpt:

federal officials noted an emergence of “credible security threats” prior to the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and have reached out to faith communities, including The Episcopal Church, to urge increased vigilance.

Canon [C.K.] Robertson says:

“They did not share specific intelligence, but rather asked all of us both to be cautious and to use our platforms to encourage peaceful responses to the decision.

The goal in all this is certainly not to incite panic in any way. But in light of the violence and tragic shootings we have continued to witness throughout the United States—including in one of our own churches—it is appropriate for all of us to be more intentionally alert in the days and weeks to come. This can mean churches connecting with local law enforcement about increased patrols, noting any unusual activity around them, and perhaps creating an emergency preparedness plan, if one does not already exist.

Again, the goal is not panic, but awareness and preparedness. For this reason, we have shared with you information that we received directly from federal authorities, with their request to pass it on to you and your congregations.”

There have been isolated reports about damage done to Catholic churches in other states but none recently concerning the Episcopal Church. Nevertheless, this unsettling news just gives us another reason to disregard the instruction to welcome strangers.

Do not forget to show hospitality to strangers, for by so doing some people have shown hospitality to angels without knowing it.----Hebrews 13:2

I Went to a Political Rally and a Game Broke Out

Brianna Turner (left) - WSJ photo

Politically active athletes have given up boycotts in favor of preaching their message when they visit states whose politics they abhor: [bold added]

State boycotts have quietly faded from popularity as a tactic, say activists, including those who successfully got NCAA and NBA events yanked from North Carolina six years ago over a law requiring people to use the public-facility bathroom corresponding to the sex on their birth certificates.

These days, activists have pivoted to accepting that such events will go ahead—while pressuring athletes and organizers to use the money and attention generated to support their cause. It’s a demand that could end up being even more challenging for teams and leagues.

As the abortion fight shifts to the states following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, that’s the approach that politically minded athletes are taking too.

For example, Brianna Turner, a power forward for the WNBA’s Phoenix Mercury, said that, rather than declining to play in areas with abortion restrictions, she wants to use her presence to promote her point of view.

Blocking events “is a tactic, but I think that maybe even better would be playing in the games and wearing shirts on the sidelines that say, like, ‘pro-abortion’ or ‘abortion rights are human rights,’” she said. Other ideas, she said, included using media availability around games to only talk about the issue.

I suspect that even some abortion-rights supporters just want to enjoy a game with their kids without being forced to explain what the rape-and-incest exception means.

We've already seen what excessive wokeness does to movie box office and TV ratings. If professional sports leagues want to turn off some of their audience, it's their right, so they should go for it.

Woke Feelings Are More Important Than 900 Children

The offending tiles (Palo Alto Online)

Summer camp for 900 kids was cancelled because staffers quit over two tile swastikas that are at least 109 years old. [bold added]

the resignations are linked to three tiles built into the home of the farm’s founders in 1929. Two of the tiles include a stylized version of a swastika. The 12-inch by 12-inch tiles, the letter said, were bought by Frank and Josephine Duveneck while traveling through Asia on their honeymoon in 1913.

According to the letter, the tiles bear Buddhist swastikas and a lotus and are embedded into the wall of the historic Duveneck house on the property. The swastika, believed to be more than 7,000 years old, was a sacred symbol in Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Odinism long before it was adopted as an emblem for the Nazis in 1920, according to the Holocaust Encyclopedia.

It's easy to take shots at the young staffers, who prioritize their feelings over the welfare of hundreds of children. This woke generation doesn't bother to look outside its bubble at other cultures or even try to understand historical contexts, accusations by the way which they freely level at the so-called dominant white culture.

We'll just close by looking at the couple who built Hidden Villa.

Born into Boston aristocracy, both Josephine Whitney and Frank Duveneck came to California to escape their "overbearing families." They bought a thousand acres ("Hidden Villa") in what is now Los Altos Hills and finished their house in 1930.

From the beginning of the Great Depression the Duvenecks opened Hidden Villa to minorities and the disadvantaged:

Hidden Villa became a center for social, educational, environmental, and humanitarian activities. It summer it was a youth camp, to which the Duvenecks brought minority and disadvantaged children, and minority counselors, which given the mostly white demographics of the San Francisco Peninsula, was particularly unusual and innovative.

It had the first youth hostel on the Pacific Slope. World War II refugees and Japanese-American victims of the World War II "relocation" - internment - were released to Hidden Villa. Gatherings included church outings, interracial parties, and fundraisings. Minority groups were welcome. The hostel accommodated a Moslem group which met to instruct children in Moslem faith and rituals. Native Americans met for dancing and feasts.

In the late 1950's Hidden Villa Camp was incorporated as a non-profit. Hidden Villa charged fees, but they were reasonable, although the Duvenecks generally paid the taxes, utilities, maintenance, and capital improvement costs.

The Duvenecks would undoubtedly weep if they knew that the Buddhist tile that symbolized the importance of Asian culture to them would cause such upset in the lives of hundreds of children this summer.