Monday, August 20, 2018

The New End of HIstory

Not what he meant though she
runs the world, too 
Venture capitalist Steven Cohen says Models Will Run the World.

(Digression: in the Instagram age you may be forgiven, dear reader, if you thought Mr. Cohen was referring to fashion models like Kylie Jenner, who at 21 years old is close to becoming a self-made billionaire.)

Mr. Cohen (net worth: $12 billion) is talking about self-teaching and self-improving computer models: [bold added]
There is no shortage of hype about artificial intelligence and big data, but models are the source of the real power behind these tools. A model is a decision framework in which the logic is derived by algorithm from data, rather than explicitly programmed by a developer or implicitly conveyed via a person’s intuition. The output is a prediction on which a decision can be made. Once created, a model can learn from its successes and failures with speed and sophistication that humans usually cannot match.

...the goal is a flywheel, or virtuous circle. Tencent, Amazon and Netflix all demonstrate this characteristic: Models improve products, products get used more, this new data improves the product even more. This creates a near-frictionless process of continuous improvement, fueling itself, rather than being driven by human judgments and advancements.
In the Age of Ultron (2015) this
AI being nearly destroyed the world
His prediction:
Software continues to eat the world, but yesterday’s advantage is today’s table stakes. In the hunt for competitive advantage, model-driven companies will accelerate away from the pack now that software has become ubiquitous.
Self-driving cars, space-exploring machines, $trillions of trades under no human control, sex robots, and instantaneous identification of criminals represent a mere fraction of the self-learning algorithms that will transform society in ways we can't imagine.

Will the all-powerful models be philosopher-kings or something much worse? Mr. Cohen does not say; we hope for the former but fear the latter is far more likely.

No comments: