In Like a Lion, We Hope

Bay Area weather forecasters expect March to come in like a lion: [bold added]

Sacramentans are grappling with graupel

Winter’s biggest storm to date will touch down Wednesday in what forecasters expect to be a three-day assault on Northern California.

“This is a once-a-winter kind of event,” said Zach Tolby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno.

Rain is coming to the Bay Area and heavy snowfall should pound the Sierra, which is welcome news following an unusually long dry spell up until this week. Parts of the Sierra got a foot or more of snow from Sunday to Monday, while other inland areas, including Sacramento, experienced the phenomenon known as graupel — a kind of soft hail that forms when supercooled water droplets freeze on falling snowflakes.

The weather service issued a winter storm warning for Northern California’s foothills and mountains starting at 4 p.m. Wednesday and lasting until 10 a.m. Saturday. The warning, which had previously been issued for 10 p.m., noted that “travel will be very difficult to impossible.”

Worries about another drought outweigh fears of flooding in Californians' minds, so storms are welcome. Those of us who have replanted our lawns know which way we want the wind to blow.

Kitchen and Other Duties

This week all 15 beds at the church are filled. The fall-off in demand for temporary shelter one year ago proved to be a short-lived phenomenon. We can speculate why requests fell and why they bounced back but, just like the recent volatile behavior of the stock market, it's above my pay grade.

A few days ago the sign-up list for Home & Hope was looking sparse, but some long-time volunteers stepped into the breach.

After dinner a couple of kids took basketballs and soccer balls outside. I followed after them. Under the rules an adult must supervise children at all times.

Those who stayed in the kitchen.

Soon they were joined by three others, and I spent the rest of the evening corraling five under-10's in the parking lot, escalating my warnings into threats so that they stayed within sight (it was dark after seven). When the two-year-old fell down, I picked him up, which was a mistake because his crying nearly burst my right eardrum. Just by looking at me the kids knew that playtime was over and went inside. The two-year-old was fine, as everyone knew he was.

I won't complain about kitchen duty again.

Two Weeks Down, Two Weeks Up

It's been a wild 31 days; the stock market averages dropped 10% in two weeks, then bounced back the following two weeks to nearly recover their losses.

The Dow is just 3.4% below its record close on Jan. 26, while the S&P 500 is down 3.2% and the Nasdaq Composite is off 1.1%

From a longer-range perspective (57 days!) stocks are higher since the start of the year.

The Dow, S & P 500, and the NASDAQ year-to-date.

I stood pat throughout it all because I knew that stocks would recover--no, just kidding. Bitter experience has taught me not to sell when rationality-defying fear is welling up in the pit of the stomach. That's when I've made the worst selling decisions.

Not that there are no reasons to be worried: complex financial instruments have attracted $billions in new money, and computer algorithms using these and other measures trigger waves of selling and buying in the blink of an eye. Also, an environment of increasing interest rates, which we haven't seen for a long time, historically has spelled death for bull markets.

Consider the correction as a warning. I will use the late-February market recovery as an opportunity to trim some equity positions and invest in bonds and short-term instruments, whose yields are improving.

Haven't you heard? interest rates are going up.

Pilgrim's Privation

Twitter's Top 100 ideas on What to Give Up for Lent

Fasting may be good for the soul and body, but some strict observers of Lent believe that Christians should not have multiple objectives when making a Lenten sacrifice:

“You should not give up food if your motivation is to lose weight or improve your health. Then it’s about you and not about God.”

Those who believe in keeping their motivations pure are much farther in the journey to the Celestial City than your humble blogger.

From sad experience the weakness of the flesh usually triumphs over the earnest pleadings of my doctor to eat wisely and exercise more, so having God as a backstop during Lent has been very helpful. To saintly Christians I plead "let not the perfect be the enemy of the good."

Not Always Opposites

Tony Hicks (SJ Mercury photo)

During the Bay Area's affordable-housing crisis I have become acquainted with small landlords who have voluntarily frozen the rents on their condos, townhouses, and homes. They will keep the rent the same as it was five, even ten, years ago, though the agreement is month-to-month; the rent won't change as long as the current tenant wants to live there.

Why do these landlords do it? Typically they're retired, have enough money and property to support a comfortable but not overly lavish lifestyle, and have real estate without debt or noisome equity partners. They have compassion for their tenants' finances and are often religious.

One such landlord (he would fit right in with the people I know) is Tony Hicks, who has decided to sell out. That isn't news, but this is: [bold added]

Hicks told his 11 tenants he would soon place the three homes he owns on the market. He expected disappointment. Instead, most wanted to move with him to Colorado....

Rising prices, high taxes and his suspicion that the next big earthquake is just a few tremors away convinced the retired engineer to put his South San Jose properties up for sale.

It helps that the landlord and tenants are culturally simpatico:

The landlord and tenants came together through Hick’s rental ads on Craigslist and in the newspaper over the last two decades. They grew close with common bonds of conservative politics, religious faith and motorcycles....

Most of the men are divorced, widowed or never married, and many suffer from health ailments and a crankiness exacerbated by Bay Area traffic, crowding and the state’s liberal policies on crime and immigration.

I still like it here and am not making plans to leave. However, I am getting crankier....

At the Neighborhood Supermarket

On the far left side, next to the restrooms, of the neighborhood Lucky Store is the resting place for items that are destined for the scavenger companies. The sole reason to buy something from the markdown shelves is price--maybe the kids would still like some Valentine candy, or 50 cents for a 2018 calendar, still good for 10 months, ain't bad.

Bottles from the Francis Ford Coppola winery were parked next to the power-steering fluid and engine oil. The movie-themed labels would be good conversation starters.

I passed. Bargains like these are the reason that clearing the clutter is a perpetual New Year's resolution.

Skin Color Prejudice - Japanese Version

(Image from blog.gaijinpot.com)

In decades past your humble blogger flew frequently to Japan, and one of the top-five pleasures (after food, cleanliness, public transportation, and absence of crime) was the hot-springs bath. The travel industry has spread the word, and tourists are now a lucrative market for the bath industry. Except...[bold added]

the staff increasingly find themselves turning away tourists, too, [spa manager Yuichi Ohama] laments: “We’re surprised by how many have body art.”

In Japan tattoos are associated with criminals....the mere sight of a tattooed thug is enough to frighten other customers away, so many gyms, pools and onsen (hot springs) ban tattoos or at least insist they be covered up. Japan’s growing army of foreign visitors has inadvertently stumbled into this cultural minefield.

Despite the cultural overtones, it looks like the deciding factor is economics.

Foreign tourists have helped offset the long-term decline of the onsen industry, admits Masao Oyama of the Japan Spa Association. But government pleading cannot remove the deep taboo on tattoos, he says. “There are still many more Japanese customers than foreigners and their feelings must come first,” he says.

Look for the prejudice against skin coloring to change as the customers for traditional bathing decline.

The First and Best of Them all

(Image from All Uganda news)

To Americans over fifty Billy Graham was the evangelist. Not a priest or bishop, he didn't need silk raiments to clothe his words with authority, just the Bible held in his left hand. There were slicker, more telegenic preachers who rose to challenge his prominence, but his strict probity from the start enabled him to stand while others fell ignominiously.

He also established standards of financial and sexual propriety that maintained his reputation over a half-century of possible temptations and served as a model to shell-shocked colleagues after the televangelical scandals of the 1980s.

WSJ: "Yet, unlike some of his contemporaries, who won fame but flamed out— Jimmy Swaggart, Jim Bakker —Mr. Graham’s mission was never derailed by scandal."

R.I.P., Rev. Graham, and as the saying goes, I hope you found what you were looking for.

The Strongest "Influencer" is Tax Law

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act reduces taxes for most individuals and businesses, but it is not a tax simplification act. One of the most beneficial--and complex--provisions is the deduction for pass-through income, which applies to small-business owners like your humble blogger, but only if business affairs (these days the adjective is necessary 😀) are structured properly.

Explanation from the Wall Street Journal and Merrill Lynch 80-page Guide to the New World of Taxes.

Phase-outs, exceptions and gray areas in these limits make this new tax break highly complex, and tax advisers are struggling to figure it out.

For example, tax specialists say the owner of a chain of tanning salons should qualify for the new tax break, while someone who earns the same amount from a group of dermatology clinics won't.

A high-earning chef who owns her restaurant can expect to get the new deduction--unless she is a celebrity chef. In that case, she may not be able to qualify because the write-off isn't available to owners earning above the limit if the business's principal asset is the "reputation or skill" of its employees or owners.

I can see a bunch of wannabe celebrity chefs cutting out those expensive-to-make YouTube videos and focusing on running their restaurants instead.

Listener-in-Chief?

A tweet from the current President about someone who could succeed him:

Just watched a very insecure Oprah Winfrey, who at one point I knew very well, interview a panel of people on 60 Minutes. The questions were biased and slanted, the facts incorrect. Hope Oprah runs so she can be exposed and defeated just like all of the others!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 19, 2018

This weekend's WSJ profile of Oprah Winfrey shows that for all her $billions and decades in business she is innately* a kind and patient person (*people don't have to pretend when they've achieved her level of success and wealth):

[Pollster Frank] Luntz goes further. “I don’t know anyone in America who can do what she does, and that is not an exaggeration,” he says. “I’ve been doing this for 25 years, and when I hosted a similar focus group two days before the election, I lost control. She has an innate, indescribable ability to find common ground among people who would otherwise kill each other".....

Though her houses are safe havens, she does occasionally venture out to restaurants—despite the fact that “the selfie thing” has made it harder. She insists on posing for every photo fans ask for and has little patience for celebrities who complain about the imposition. “If you don’t want to be a parade, then don’t go to the parade,” she says. “I try to be kind to people because people have been so kind to me, and I know it’s the only moment that they are going to have”....

“I want to see what the right side is saying and what the left side is saying,” she says, adding that what she doesn’t do much is watch the news. “I limit my intake,” she says. “All these commentators are on, and they’re just yakety-yaking. Everybody is talking to themselves. Nobody is listening to anybody. They’re there to make their point and make their moment, and we’re actually getting nowhere. So I turn it off.”

Donald Trump called Oprah "insecure", though she's anything but. If she does run in 2020, defeating her won't be easy.

Respect

Fergie's rendition of the National Anthem at the NBA All-Star game has been so roundly criticized that I was hesitant to watch it after the fact. Probably because my expectations were so low I actually liked it. She hit the high notes, her intonation was good, and she got the words right---those three qualities alone make her performance above average at least.



Her interpretation--bluesy and sultry, or is that redundant?--is the source of the criticism. Watching her closely I didn't see any sign of disrespect, just an artist trying to put her own interpretation on something everyone is very familiar with.

Breaking the mold is safe if the subject is immune from artistic criticism.

Not-so-risky art (New York Times photo)

Banning Guns vs. The Surveillance State: Pick One?

Guns are big and scary-looking to us in the Bay Area (BYU)

Gun-confiscation and banishment advocates---I meet them every day in the Bay Area---have no answer to the following questions: 1) Why would passing such a law solve the mass shooting problem, when the laws don't work in stopping illegal immigration? 2) ....Or in curing the drug epidemic? 3) Shall police invade the homes of millions of owners who refuse to turn in their guns? 4) Just what is the plan to repeal the Second Amendment, which requires the assent of 38 state legislatures?

Absent changing the law about gun ownership, the most promising solution is unpalatable to many -- increasing drastically the power of the surveillance state:

technology potentially changes the equation in important ways. Big data.....can help us know who might be planning [a mass shooting] next week: Who got kicked out of school, failed to show up for a court-assigned counseling session, made a big purchase at a gun store, posted a deranged or threatening message on social media, prompted an uptick in alarmed social-media chatter by friends and acquaintances.

If we don't set up extensive surveillance, and if we don't repeal the Second Amendment, then we're stuck with the status quo: the occasional mass shooting, images of weeping families, and mourning young lives lost way too soon. We're stuck with 10,000-15,000 gun deaths per year, of which 300-500 are mass shootings, defined as "a single shooting incident which kills or injures four or more people, including the assailant". (The latter number, by way of comparison, is about the same as the number of childhood deaths from brain cancer.)

The acrimony floating around this subject makes it likely that change will happen. Let's hope that we'll gain more than we lose.

Facebook and Its Problems

An example of a link I did NOT click on.

Some of the Facebook contacts in my demographic--baby boomer, college-educated--post all the time, but most, like me, seem to be infrequent users. (I suspect that we registered initially to snoop check in on our children and grandchildren.) I still log in to view photos of family and friends, especially baby pictures, but I haven't posted anything for many months.

What's become bothersome is the political obsessions of a few. I have friends on both left and right, and, to be clear, I don't mind reading their original opinions and haven't un-friended anyone. But the constant linking to conservative and progressive propaganda is more and more irritating. I get my news from traditional publications, not from advocacy groups.

Wired's 2/12/18 cover

All these concerns and more are covered in the February 12th issue of Wired. The fifth most valuable company (behind Apple, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft) in the world has come under fire from all sides of the political spectrum because of the blatant disinformation that Russian operatives placed, possibly affecting the 2016 elections.

Yet efforts to solve the problem of "fake news" are fraught with obstacles. For example, who decides fact from fiction? Isn't it the mission of Facebook to allow users to disseminate what is interesting to them? If Facebook is not merely a platform but has some responsibility for news content, then doesn't it open itself to liability?

Mark Zuckerberg has many quirks but I get the feeling he's trying to be fair, even to those he vehemently disagrees with. He, along with Donald Trump, are billionaires who I feel a little sorry for, something I could not have imagined saying 20 years ago.

Fun to Watch

The hedge, 2 years later

The drain line from the kitchen to the sewer was backed up yet again (previous blockages were in 2014 and 2016). Since the last time I had faithfully poured an enzyme solution down the drain once a month, apparently without making a difference.

My mind is a puzzle. I will happily spend thousands of dollars on vacation each year but had difficulty paying $300-$400 to deal with a biennial plumbing problem.

I took a stab at clearing the line myself. First the hedge that covered the "clean-out" next to the kitchen had to be trimmed.

BTW, my rule for attempting home repairs: my out-of-pocket cost must be at least two hundred dollars cheaper, including supplies, from what a professional would charge. Also, if failure results, I shan't have made the problem worse.

The Sears Craftsman electric power tool trimmed the hedge in 10 minutes.

Next came the plumbing snake. It encountered resistance, probably grease, at 15 feet in, but I managed to push through using the entire 25-foot length.

Finally came a gallon of Main Line Cleaner. This one was lye, friendlier on the pipes than ones that are made of sulfuric acid, and guaranteed to bust through clogs.

Well, it didn't work. When I ran the water the next day it stopped draining completely after a few seconds. I called the plumber ($358), which was always Option B.

So, why recount this tale? In business and in life one should always learn something from failure.

The stoppage was at 35 feet down the line. I didn't have the right tool, a drain cleaning machine, to push through the blockage. (Buying and storing one for infrequent use is not practical.)

Augers open pipes but don't clean them. For that you need a hydro-jet machine. How much for the service? "At least $1,000." I'll think about it.

Meanwhile, I'm taking a much more aggressive approach to using enzymatic cleaners, which the plumber assured me do work. I'm pouring the solution down the sink every night for the rest of the month, then scaling back to a weekly schedule.

If this doesn't work, I'm going to order a hydro-jet which will be expensive. But it should be fun to watch.

Hope You Found Some Joy

Another school shooting (17 dead so far) has ruined this Valentine's Day. The usual questions arise: how did the gunman get his weapons, were there warnings signs (emphatically yes in his case), would mere enforcement of existing laws have prevented this horror, etc. etc.

As one who has the highest respect for the Constitution but at the same time doesn't regard the right to bear arms as essential to my being, I--and I suspect many Americans--am willing to consider drastic solutions, including a ban on gun sales and even a ban on gun ownership. I think either of those goals will be too difficult to attain, but if someone can put together a plausible plan that people will get behind, let's listen. Frankly, I think it will be easier to solve immigration or illegal drugs. [Added - 2/15: of course it's harder--a comprehensive gun ban requires an amendment to the Constitution.]

Meanwhile, I did send a bouquet to my true love, who is visiting her mother two thousand miles away. So, Happy Valentine's Day, everyone, hope you found some joy.

It Can't Be Racism Because No Whites Are Involved

Taylor Farms plant in Salinas (Chronicle photo)

I've been buying Taylor Farms organic produce at Costco for the past year and was disappointed to see this Chronicle headline: 16 former employees sue Taylor Farms for racial discrimination.

However, there's still a chance that Taylor Farms won't be pulled from Costco shelves because the story doesn't fit the mainstream narrative of white discrimination against non-whites. In other words, there's a good chance the story will be buried: [bold added]

African American workers faced rampant racist and discriminatory behavior at the farm’s manufacturing plant in Tracy.

The 16 employees named in the lawsuit, all of whom are African American, described incidents in which co-workers called them “n—,” “monkey” or Spanish-language racial epithets like “congo” and “mayate.” The plaintiffs also claim they were denied promotions because of their skin color and were often forced to work in unfavorable conditions...

According to the lawsuit, 80 African American employees worked at the facility in 2015. By 2017, there were fewer than 20...

Many of the plaintiffs listed in the lawsuit worked for Taylor Farms between 2014 and 2017. Most of the events are described in the lawsuit as interactions between African American employees and Latino employees and supervisors.

I think we should cut the Latino name-callers some slack. In California we don't believe in brainwashing immigrant populations with Anglo values.

Fat Tuesday

IHOP's cinn-a-stack pancakes

I've been good. I haven't had syrup- and whipped-cream-covered pancakes since last year's Fat Tuesday. It was time for another visit before Lent begins tomorrow.

The pancake supper reminds us of the centuries-old tradition of emptying the larder of perishable items that will spoil during Lent's 40 days. Freezing and refrigeration have eliminated the need to empty the larder. Nevertheless, we must honor tradition...

For a Long Time

(New York Times photo)

Not surprisingly, the portraits of the Obamas that were unveiled today sparked reactions that were colored by the politics of the reviewer.

The New York Times, predictably, was sycophantic: [bold added]

...each radiating, in its different way, gravitas (his) and glam (hers).

Mr. Wiley depicts Mr. Obama not as a self-assured, standard-issue bureaucrat, but as an alert and troubled thinker. Ms. Sherald’s image of Mrs. Obama overemphasizes an element of couturial spectacle, but also projects a rock-solid cool.

The National Review was mocking:

Take your pick: he’s sitting by the ivy on the outfield wall at Wrigley Field in Chicago, he’s in the Garden of Eden, or this is all an elaborate promotion for The Weed Agency. (Perhaps it’s meant to suggest that when he sat in power, some Bushes were behind him?) Or maybe this is just what happens when earth tones get a lot of rain.

Let's set politics aside for the moment and just react to the art. Let's also set aside what members of whichever tribe we belong to will say about our reaction.

I liked the portraits. I think they're both beautiful, and I didn't vote for the guy.

Sure, the portraits break with tradition because they're not photo-realistic, but this is not the 18th century; now we have many thousands of images of our public figures and we don't need another picture to remind us how they actually looked like. It's much more interesting to see how an artist sees them....though I'll be puzzling over the extra finger on Barack's left hand for a long time.

Legacy of the Enlightenment

Just because it was European and mostly male doesn't mean it was wrong.

Historians say that the Age of Reason, aka The Enlightenment, ended in the early 19th century.

Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker asserts that the Enlightenment is still important and crucial to human advancement. "The Enlightenment Is Working", he says, and numerous indicators back his claim that the world is much better off than it ever has been due to Enlightenment principles.

Consider the U.S. just three decades ago. Our annual homicide rate was 8.5 per 100,000. Eleven percent of us fell below the poverty line (as measured by consumption). And we spewed 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide and 34.5 million tons of particulate matter into the atmosphere.

Fast forward to the most recent numbers available today. The homicide rate is 5.3 (a blip up from 4.4 in 2014). Three percent of us fall below the consumption poverty line. And we emit four million tons of sulfur dioxide and 20.6 million tons of particulates, despite generating more wealth and driving more miles.

Globally, the 30-year scorecard also favors the present. In 1988, 23 wars raged, killing people at a rate of 3.4 per 100,000; today it’s 12 wars killing 1.2 per 100,000. The number of nuclear weapons has fallen from 60,780 to 10,325. In 1988, the world had just 45 democracies, embracing two billion people; today it has 103, embracing 4.1 billion. That year saw 46 oil spills; 2016, just five. And 37% of the population lived in extreme poverty, barely able to feed themselves, compared with 9.6% today. True, 2016 was a bad year for terrorism in Western Europe, with 238 deaths. But 1988 was even worse, with 440.

These days what people are feeling and which group they belong to seem to be more important, but I have faith (!) that humankind isn't going to return to pre-Enlightenment ways. Anyway, the robots will make sure we don't.

Bonus Sunday footnote - Sources of Authority in Anglicanism:

The threefold sources of authority in Anglicanism are scripture, tradition, and reason. These three sources uphold and critique each other in a dynamic way. Scripture is the normative source for God's revelation and the source for all Christian teaching and reflection. Tradition passes down from generation to generation the church's ongoing experience of God's presence and activity. Reason is understood to include the human capacity to discern the truth in both rational and intuitive ways. It is not limited to logic as such. It takes into account and includes experience. Each of the three sources of authority must be perceived and interpreted in light of the other two.

Greater Than Expected

Gloria proves that she's the monster by dancing.

The Netflix DVD had been sitting on the table since last year, so it was high time to deal with it.

The beginning of Colossal (2016) is unbelievable, even laughable. Gloria (Anne Hathaway) returns to her New England hometown after losing her job in New York. A monster appears in Seoul, South Korea and kills hundreds of people.

From news videos Gloria realizes that the monster somehow is her; it duplicates her motions exactly as she walks through the hometown park (she didn't know about the damage she was causing in Seoul). She proves to her friends that she's the monster and swears them to secrecy. And that's only the first half of the movie.

Once the preposterous premise---a small-town girl is connected to a skyscraper-sized monster in Korea---is accepted, the rest of the movie follows believably. One of her friends uses the secret to further his own ends, while Gloria is guilt-wracked over the damage she's been causing.

Despite the title, it's a "little" movie that focuses on the conflicts between these small-town characters and how they have colossal consequences halfway around the world.

Kudos also to writer-director Nacho Vigalondo for not introducing Gloria's secret to government agencies, which would have sidetracked the story. By the movie's end an explanation is provided for Gloria's super-power.

I enjoyed the movie more than expected.

Goodbye, California

The 1978 thriller is about a terrorist threat
to the San Andreas fault. The next Big
One, back to the subject,  might precipitate
an exodus from the State, just as the 1908
quake moved the population center south.

A few days ago I wrote:

The warning signs are widespread. I don't know what may trigger the fall; perhaps it will be rising interest rates, dropping tech stock prices, or fed-up tourists, but it would not be surprising to see a collapse, and an exodus of individual and business taxpayers, in San Francisco's near future.

The data now confirm what reason says should be happening.
Thursday CBS Headline: San Francisco Bay Area Experiences Mass Exodus Of Residents [bold added]

The number of people packing up and moving out of the Bay Area just hit its highest level in more than a decade...Of course people come and go from the Bay Area all the time, but for the first time in a long time, more people are leaving the Bay Area than are coming in. And the number one place in the country for out-migration is now, right here.

Topping the list is the high cost of housing.

“You can’t even contemplate getting into the housing market here,” [Joint Venture Silicon Valley's Russell] Hancock said. “And I don’t mean just service workers, I mean highly skilled professionals. The tech elite are having a hard time affording reasonable housing in Silicon Valley. So this is difficult, this makes it very difficult for employers trying to recruit.”

[Retired engineer Carole] Dabak cites crowding, crime and politics as the reasons for her own exodus...She plans to sell her home for about $1 million, buy a much larger place near Nashville for less than half that and retire closer to family and friends.

During my career I turned down transfers out of California from two different employers. Given the same circumstances today,  I would make a different decision.

Duck and Cover

In a shocking display of speciesism, three men chased off ducks and geese just so that they could practice throwing around a plastic disk during a weekday lunch break.

The formerly peaceful waterfowl loudly expressed their displeasure, depositing digestive effluvia on peacefully parked cars as they flew overhead. I kept my mouth closed from a long-ago, literally bitter experience.

I avoided the first salvo and left. When stuff starts flying, don't stick around.

I'm Watching You Watch Me

At the local Mickey D's the Google driver was on lunch break. In San Mateo County condos, townhouses, and apartments are springing up on every privately owned patch of dirt, accompanied by a few new roads that need to be mapped from above and from the street.

Despite the expensive electronics, the car is totally theft-proof; everyone knows it's watching them watch it.

Knowing Myself

Insurers have a different marketing approach.

Companies like to say that their products make people feel good about themselves, but I actually spend a good chunk of personal money (and time) out of fear. Auto and fire insurance are legally required, and while medical insurance used to be mandatory one would be awfully risk-seeking to go without. And ever since we were in our 20's we've bought life and earthquake insurance.

Concerning time, I spend more hours than I care to admit on security for electronic devices and communications and pore through credit card and phone bills and bank statements to look for strange activity.

"The unexamined life is not worth living," said the philosopher. Yes, basically I quake (!) in fear; unfortunately Socrates had no recommendations for that.

Warning Signs

Having worked in San Francisco for 25 non-consecutive years, I can attest to its positives: great restaurants, well-known landmarks, decent public transportation once you know the routes, and beautiful weather (fog days have lessened, perhaps due to global warming).

However, I'm more and more grateful that I don't live in the City. The traffic is bad, often dangerous, and the prices for everything have become astronomical. Worse, "unacceptable" crimes and behavior have become commonplace.

Photographed but not caught. Note covered-up plate
on the thief's VW (SF Chronicle)

The Smash-and-Grab
Undeterred by car alarms, thieves smash windows with impunity:

The car with no plates pulls up. Out jumps a passenger with a small tool — available online or in any hardware store — that’s intended to help people break windows if they’re stuck inside their own car.

You just press the tool against a window, and a spring-loaded spike shatters the glass. Because it doesn’t shake the car, alarms don’t go off. The thief grabs whatever is handy and returns to the getaway car...

Heat maps of where last year’s 30,000 police reports were taken in San Francisco show car break-ins are concentrated in tourist hot spots — from the Beach Chalet to Fisherman’s Wharf, from the Academy of Sciences to, yes, Lombard Street.

Drug Use and Human Feces

Originally the problems of the Tenderloin and South-of-Market districts,

Jennifer Wong's siteused to map
sidewalk fecal concentrations.

Reports of improperly discarded syringes have jumped 41 percent since last fiscal year, according to a recent city controller’s report. Complaints about feces have increased by 39 percent, with every district seeing a rise in the calls.

Priorities
Meanwhile, San Francisco has declared itself to be a Sanctuary City (and spearheaded the drive to make California a Sanctuary State) and imposes a multitude of business taxes.

As of this writing house prices continue to rise, despite the reduction of favorable tax treatment for expensive houses in the recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The warning signs are widespread. I don't know what may trigger the fall; perhaps it will be rising interest rates, dropping tech stock prices, or fed-up tourists, but it would not be surprising to see a collapse, and an exodus of individual and business taxpayers, in San Francisco's near future.

Ready to Go

Nick Foles after a Super Bowl TD (Washington Post)

In July, 2016 quarterback Nick Foles had been cut by the St. Louis Rams and decided to retire from football. Sports Illustrated:

He planned to become a high school pastor and join his father, Larry, as a full-time restaurateur.

Kansas City Coach Andy Reid contacted the 27-year-old and signed him as the backup quarterback for the Chiefs ("You have a lot of great football left in you").

Confidence restored, he became the backup QB for the Philadelphia Eagles for the 2017-2018 season. Taking over when starting quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a season-ending injury in December, Nick Foles was so lightly regarded that the Eagles were the underdog in each of their three playoff games.

On Sunday the Eagles were Super Bowl champions, and Nick Foles was named the game's Most Valuable Player.

He's at the mountain top now, but he doesn't seem to be caught up in the moment.

"I think in our society today, Instagram, Twitter, it's a highlight reel. It's all the good things. And then when you look at it, when you think like, wow, when you have a rough day, 'My life's not as good as that,' (you think) you're failing.

"Failure is a part of life. It's a part of building character and growing. Without failure, who would you be? I wouldn't be up here if I hadn't fallen thousands of times. Made mistakes.

"We all are human, we all have weaknesses, and I think throughout this, (it's been important) to be able to share that and be transparent. I know when I listen to people speak and they share their weaknesses, I'm listening. Because (it) resonates.

"So I'm not perfect. I'm not Superman. I might be in the NFL, I might have just won a Super Bowl, but, hey, we still have daily struggles, I still have daily struggles. And that's where my faith comes in, that's where my family comes in.

"I think when you look at a struggle in your life, just know that's just an opportunity for your character to grow. And that's just been the message. Simple. If something's going on in your life and you're struggling? Embrace it. Because you're growing."

Andy Reid understated how much great football he had left, but when Nick Foles eventually hangs up his cleats, it looks like he's already well-prepared for his second career.

[Update - 2/7: Nick Foles wasn't channeling Friedrich Nietzsche ("what does not kill me makes me stronger") Giving thanks for one's own suffering is a very old Christian concept.

we also glory in our sufferings, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope. And hope does not put us to shame, because God’s love has been poured out into our hearts through the Holy Spirit, who has been given to us. --Romans 5]

Caught Off Guard

Below is an internal company email exchange that I had with the "CEO" and founder of a company that I do part-time work for. Because I had let my guard down, I didn't realize that it was fake for a full day. Lesson learned--one should always be on heightened alert whenever funds are to be wired out.
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"CEO": Steve, Are you at your desk right now? Kindly get back to me, as i want you to process a payment today. Kind regards,

Me: I'll login to Skype to see if you're on.

CEO: Steve, am not on Skype right now....Below is the Beneficiary details..

Wells Fargo Bank
95 Wessington Ave
Garfield , New Jersey
ABA#: 121000248
Swift : WFBIUS6S
Ac#: 128-137-0914
Name: NICOLAS TECH TRADES INC
Amount: $140,000

CEO: I want you to process this payment immediately and once it has been completed email me with the payment confirmation page ASAP...Kindly confirm the receipt of this message...

[Telephone call where the real CEO said he never sent the email and to forward him a copy.]

Me: This is what I got from "you" yesterday. If not from you, or if you meant it for someone else, I'll just delete and forget about it.

CEO: Yes it is for you..How soon can you process this?

Me: Then we need to talk.
1) What is the deal? For example is it earnest money for a transaction? Then what is the transaction?
2) If you want to use your existing business account in the other company, then you have to do it since I am not an authorized signer.
Call me on Skype, please, to talk, or on my cell.
-----------------------------------------
I immediately forwarded the email thread to Wells Fargo Bank security, but I imagine the scammers were gone. Meanwhile, Nicolas Tech Trades better not show its logo in this town again.

Parochial Perspective

An amusing image that someone posted on the web: The World According to Americans.

Yes, many fellow citizens view the rest of the world in ten words or less, but don't all of us oversimplify topics we don't know well? And there's just so much information to remember on everything....

The map reminds me, as it may you, dear reader, of Saul Steinberg's New Yorker cover, the View of the World from 9th Avenue.

On my first job after graduation I saw the March 29, 1976 issue lying on a coworker's desk in the Alcoa building in San Francisco. (I regularly paged through someone else's New Yorker for the cartoons--I was too cheap to subscribe--but did linger on that cover.) The painting captured perfectly the parochial perspective of my college roommate, a Long Islander who had never been west of the Hudson.

I strongly hope that George has expanded his horizons since. Then again, he seemed perfectly happy with his life at the time, and who was I to judge, having lived on an island for my first 17 years?

Taste is Out, Sourcing is In

(From Consumer Reports, Nov., 2017 - click to enlarge)

Consumer Reports grades restaurants over how well they eliminate antibiotics in food. (Animals fed with antibiotics create drug-resistant bacteria.)

Two of our favorites, Chipotle and Panera Bread, rank at the top.

(BWW  - what you get for $20)

One disappointment among our regular eateries is Buffalo Wild Wings. BWW charges high prices--about $20 for 20 chicken wings--and we wouldn't mind paying more if they were better sourced.

Maybe we'll shift to the cheaper and apparently healthier KFC, starting in 2019.

The biggest mover since last year is KFC. It went from an F to a B- because it announced that it would stop serving chicken raised with medically important antibiotics by the end of 2018.